Padres vs Reds Odds, Predictions & Starting Pitchers (June 30)

• The Padres vs Reds odds list San Diego as -140 road favorites on Friday
• Seth Lugo (3-4, 4.01 ERA) gets the call for San Diego, while Cincy counters with Graham Ashcraft (3-6, 7.17 ERA)
• Check out the latest Padres vs Reds predictions, odds, and starting-pitching analysis

If not for the Braves’ incredible play over the past month, the Reds’ recent form would be getting a lot more attention. Cincinnati (43-38, 21-20 home) has ripped off 17 wins in its last 22 games, building a half game lead atop the NL Central.

Despite the Reds’ impressive play, online sportsbooks are siding against them on Friday, opening up the Padres (37-44, 17-22 away) as road chalk in the MLB odds.

Padres vs Reds Odds

San Diego is currently a -140 moneyline favorite, in a game with a total of 11. First pitch is scheduled for 5:10 pm ET at the Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, OH, with 82 degree temperatures on deck.

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San Diego vs Cincinnati Probable Pitchers

The Reds recent stretch has made a small impact in their World Series odds, but not nearly as big of one as you might expect. Cincy’s title price is down to +10000, after sitting at 150-1 last week.

They’ll give the ball to Graham Ashcraft on Friday, which must be music to the Padres ears. Ashcraft has been the weak link of the rotation this year, and reports suggest he could be destined for the bullpen if his struggles continue.

Graham Ashcraft's updated numbers this season.

First 6 starts – 36 innings, 8 earned runs
Last 8 starts – 33 innings, 47 earned runs#Reds @fox19

— Jeremy Rauch (@FOX19Jeremy) June 24, 2023

Over his last eight starts, Ashcraft has an ERA of 12.82. He’s coughed up six or more runs in five of those outings, while being taken deep 11 times. The mighty Atlanta bats slugged three homers off him last Saturday, along with 10 hits, while four of his past seven opponents have produced multi-homer efforts against him.

If there’s a small reason for optimism however, it’s this. Ashcraft does have a decent track record against the San Diego regulars in the MLB starting lineups. He held the Padres to six hits and a single run in his lone career meeting with them earlier this season, but that was before the wheels really fell off.

Lugo vs Ashcraft Stats

San Diego was set to counter with Yu Darvish, a one-time staple in the Cy Young odds market. Darvish is dealing with an illness though, forcing the Padres to pivot. They’ll use Seth Lugo in his place, as the veteran looks to bounce back from a rough start.

Lugo surrendered seven hits and three runs last time out to the light hitting Nationals. He’s had an up and down 2023 campaign, seemingly trading good starts with bad ones. After spending the last two seasons in a relief role, he’s on pace for his worst statistical year since 2020.

His 8.2 K/9 rate is the lowest its been since 2017, while his opponent slash line of .275/.321/.412 is the worst of his career. He did pitch very well in his lone meeting against Cincy this season, but that hasn’t been the case historically against Reds batters.

Padres vs Reds Predictions

Current Cincinnati hitters own a lifetime .278/.366/.361 slash line against Lugo. As mentioned, the Reds are incredibly hot right now, and the bats have a lot to do with it. Cincy is fresh off an 11-run outburst versus Baltimore, marking the second time in six games they’ve reached double-digit runs.

Over the past month, the Reds are averaging six runs per outing, with baseball’s fourth best slugging percentage. Four Cincy hitters are batting over .300 during that stretch, including NL ROY odds contender Elly De La Cruz.

Players since 1901 to have a .300+ AVG, 9+ SB & 10+ XBH in 1st 20 MLB games:

Elly De La Cruz

That’s it.

Data via OptaSTATS pic.twitter.com/bSl1wkofdW

— Greg Harvey (@BetweenTheNums) June 29, 2023

The 21-year-old hit for the cycle last week, and is averaging a run per game in his big league career. From a power perspective, Jonathan India is leading the way with seven dingers over the last month, while Spencer Steer has gone deep six times.

As for San Diego, disappointing is the best way to sum up their play. The Padres were touted as a title contender in Spring Training, but have not lived up to expectations. They’re seven games under .500 and have lost five straight. They’ve failed to eclipse three runs in three of those outings, and the production from some of their top players just hasn’t been there.

Padres vs Reds 2023 H2H Results

Prized offseason acquisition Xander Bogaerts is hitting .259 with only eight home runs, while Manny Machado has a worse average and OBP, with just one more dinger. Gary Sanchez and Rougned Odor are each batting .216 or lower, and have combined for only 11 home runs.

Pitching and defense have been keeping them in games, but that too has abandoned them during this losing streak. The Padres have surrendered an average of seven runs over their past four games, and have been outscored 31-12 during their skid.

Picks: Reds +1.5 (-120), Over 11 (-110)