Tua Tagovailoa Next Team Odds – Heavy Favorite Emerges in Prediction Market

• The Dolphins are set to release Tua Tagovailoa, eating a $99 million cap hit over two years
• Atlanta is given the highest chance of signing him per Kalshi, but don’t sleep on the Jets
• See Tua Tagovailoa’s next team odds below, plus my favorite bet to make in this market

Tua Tagovailoa era is over in Miami, and the Dolphins are about to realize just how expensive it is to whiff on a franchise quarterback. Miami will release Tua once the new league year opens up, eating a $99 million dead cap penalty spread over two years.

Tagovailoa joins a growing list of veteran QB’s looking for work, and prediction markets believe Atlanta has the best chance of acquiring his services. Personally, I don’t see the attraction, and believe the Falcons are much better sticking with Michael Penix Jr.

That doesn’t mean there isn’t a fit for Tua elsewhere. Keep reading for the complete list of Tua Tagovailoa’s next team odds, plus my favorite bet to make in this market.

Tua Tagovailoa Next Team Odds – Prediction Market Gives One Team 70% Chance

At the time of writing, Kalshi gives Atlanta a 70% chance to signing Tagovailoa. That equals -233 odds in traditional sports betting terms, a price that seems crazy given his play over the last two seasons.

After Atlanta, Minnesota has the next best chance to sign him, followed by Pittsburgh. Neither of those teams are legit threats in the Super Bowl odds market, but the Steelers make more sense given there isn’t a starting QB currently on the roster committed to playing next season, and because they’ve pulled off similarly desperate moves in recent years (Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers).

The Pros and Cons of Tua in Atlanta

Let’s look at the pros and cons for Atlanta to sign Tagovailoa. On the plus side, he’ll cost them barely any money. That would allow the Falcons to bolster their roster around him, to make up for any of his short comings. He’s shown the ability to play on time, and when healthy can be an extremely accurate thrower.

The list of downsides however, is much longer. For starters, his play has fallen off a cliff. Tua went from a Pro Bowler in 2023, to ranking fifth in interceptions over the last two seasons. Among qualified QB’s in 2025, Tagovailoa ranked 30th in success rate, 28th in EPA/drop back and 25th in yards per attempt.

That’s a major red flag, especially since Atlanta’s current QB Penix, ranked significantly higher in all three metrics. Penix is also much more mobile, and brings rushing upside that Tua couldn’t match in his wildest dreams.

If the Falcons are looking for insurance behind Penix, than a move might make sense, but I highly doubt Tagovailoa wants to sign with a team that doesn’t plan on making him their number one.

Another red flag is Tua’s injury history. He’s suffered numerous concussions over the past few seasons, some of which prompted experts to wonder if he’d ever play again. Tagovailoa is one bad hit away from career ending, and any team with playoff aspirations would be wise to look elsewhere.

The new regime in Atlanta has already put voiced their confidence in Penix for 2026, and all signs point to him being fully recovered from his knee injury in time for Training Camp. The Falcons are already a trendy bet in the NFL win totals market, but any excitement for them would crater if they bring Tua in.

Why the Jets Make Sense

Doesn’t Tagovailoa just feel like the perfect Jets quarterback. An aging veteran, with no mobility and minimal arm strength, forced to stand in behind a bad offensive line and absorb a ton of punishment. It’s the Chad Pennington scenario all over again.

All jokes aside, New York is desperate for competency at the QB position, and they’re going to be very disappointed if they’re expecting Kyler Murray or someone else with NFL MVP odds upside to sign with them.

Tua fills a clear hole in New York, and can start the season as QB1, playing just well enough for the Jets to be competitive, but not good enough for them to win games. The Jets eyes are on the 2027 Draft Class that is loaded with quarterback talent, and Tagovailoa can be a cheap option, allowing them to build towards the future at other positions.

He’s currently trading at 16 cents to sign with the Jets, which equals +525 odds in traditional sports betting terms. Given New York’s history of handling the position, that seems like a bet we should all be looking to make.