Justin Fields Traded to Chiefs – Will Mahomes Start for KC in Week 1

• Justin Fields was traded to the Kansas City Chiefs Monday
• Incumbent Patrick Mahomes is recovering from late season torn ACL & LCL’s
• See the odds of who will be KC’s Week 1 starting quarterback this season

The Kansas City Chiefs added a quarterback with plenty of starting experience to their QB room Monday, dealing for New York Jets signal caller Justin Fields. The move was necessitated due to Patrick Mahomes tearing his ACL & LCL in December, leading him to miss the final three contests of the campaign.

With KC needing a stop gap option, they brought in Fields to be the quarterback taking reps through offseason workouts, with the high probability he’ll need to start games to begin the season.

The graph below shows the current odds whether or not Fields will be the Chiefs Week 1 starter, or whether Mahomes will recover quickly enough to begin the year under center for KC.

Kansas City Chiefs Week 1 Starting QB Odds

Prediction Markets

Chiefs Week 1 Starting QB

Learn more about Prediction Markets

Kalshi

Justin Fields

89%

Patrick Mahomes

21%

Jacoby Brissett

2%

Predict

Odds in table from Kalshi at 3:45 pm ET, March 16th.

Should Mahomes make a quicker than expected recovery, clearly the Chiefs NFL win totals will rise significantly. If Fields is the guy tossing the pigskin from the get-go, that’ll dramatically hinder KC’s expectations, as he’s 16-and-37 in his NFL career, going 2-7 with the Jets last season.

As it currently stands, the Chiefs NFL odds to make the playoffs are set at a healthy -235, with them missing at +190. Their Super Bowl odds see them as the fifth choice to win the Lombardi Trophy at +1500.

Currently on Kalshi, Justin Field is the overwhelming favorite to begin the season as KC’s starter at 89%. That’s followed by three-time Super Bowl champion Patrick Mahomes (21%), and current Cardinals QB Jacoby Brissett with very small 2% likelihood.

Why Justin Fields Will Start Season With Chiefs

Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has long been thought of as a ‘QB whisperer’. This could be the ideal landing spot for Justin Fields to showcase his talents to get back in solid graces with the league. After parts of three seasons with the Bears, following them selecting him 11th overall in 2021, he’s bounced around to two different spots in two years. He was 10-28 with Chicago, then 4-2 with the Steelers in 2024 and 2-7 with the Jets last season.

The typical recovery timeline for Patrick Mahomes’ ACL/LCL tear is in the 9-12 month range. Given that he suffered the injuries in December but underwent surgery right away, that potentially lands in the ballpark of when he could be good to go for the beginning of the campaign.

However, KC will likely be incredibly cautious to protect their star QB Mahomes from suffering a setback, or even worse, another full blown injury.

Chiefs Loading Up To Offset Potential Mahomes Absence

The Chiefs haven’t been sitting idle in their attempts to improve their roster, following their first missed postseason appearance since 2014. They inked Super Bowl LX MVP Kenneth Walker III to a 3-year / $43.05M dollar deal to improve a floundering running game that hasn’t been better than league average (in YPG) since 2021.

They also dealt two-time All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie to the Rams for a bounty of draft picks which includes this year’s first round selection. They’ve also been linked to potentially bring back WR Tyreek Hill, who is coming off his own torn ACL.

Despite possibly missing action, Mahomes is clearly among the top choices in the NFL MVP odds to win it for a third time. In this instance, however, KC will likely exercise extreme caution in not allowing Mahomes back too early, which is reflective in their deal for Fields Monday. It’s the chalky pick to go with Fields to begin the year, but the prudent one.

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