Pirates vs Phillies Predictions & Player-Prop Picks (June 29)

• The Philadelphia Phillies are slight -115 home favorites as they open up a set against the Pittsburgh Pirates
• The Phillies have won seven of the last 10 head-to-head meetings
• Read below for the my Pirates vs Phillies prediction, latest odds and prop picks

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The Philadelphia Phillies are trying to catch the Atlanta Braves at the top of the NL East. Their opponent, the Pittsburgh Pirates, are doing their best to stay out of the basement in the NL Central.

Philadelphia has owned the battle of Pennsylvania of late, sweeping Pittsburgh earlier this year, part of seven wins in the last 10 meetings.

And even with what looks like a disadvantage in the MLB probable pitchers, they’re still the slight home favorites in the MLB odds.

First pitch is set for 6:40pm ET from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, in a game that can be seen live nationally on MLB TV.

Read below for updated odds, and my prediction and best player prop picks.

Pirates vs Phillies Odds

The graphic above shows the best available odds, which are subject to change. Use theScore Bet promo code to wager on Pirates vs Phillies and other MLB action.

The Phillies are slight home favorites on the moneyline at -115 odds, courtesy of bet365. Oddsmakers initially listed the visiting Pirates as -115 favorites, but public action forced sportsbooks to adjust the lines, now at -102 on the moneyline at FanDuel.

The Pirates are getting 1.5 runs in the spread, so the juice is noticeable, with a pay out of -200 odds. Philadelphia is the same, getting -190 odds at BetMGM.

The opening total of 8.5 runs remains stagnant. Despite heavy volume pouring in on the Over, the number has not shifted. Bookmakers seem comfortable with their initial projection, but the pitching data suggests plenty of run-scoring opportunities.

PIT Pirates vs PHI Phillies Prediction

• Best Bet: Pirates ML (-105 at bet365)

Philadelphia secured a 6-2 victory over the New York Mets recently, powered by Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber. The Pirates earned an 8-6 win against the Colorado Rockies behind Bryan Reynolds and Nick Gonzales.

Aaron Nola has labored for the Phillies, while Braxton Ashcraft provides stability for Pittsburgh.

Ashcraft is throwing at an elite level. His 3.07 ERA is supported by a 2.84 FIP. He limits baserunners effectively, evident in his 1.09 WHIP. Nola, however, carries a bloated 5.58 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. Opponents are hitting .280 against him.

Over his last 10 starts, Nola is allowing 2.01 home runs per nine innings while averaging just 4.93 innings per start. Ashcraft boasts a 2.73 ERA over his previous 10 outings. Because historical batter vs pitcher data is negligible for both projected lineups, I am relying heavily on these season-long and recent form metrics.

Pittsburgh is churning out 5.11 runs and 8.95 hits per contest. Their lineup consistently pressures opposing defenses, stealing 0.88 bases per game compared to Philadelphia’s 0.54.

The Phillies rely heavier on power, averaging 1.30 home runs per game. It’s a good time to remind you to check the batter vs pitcher stats, to give you a better sense of how to pick your favorite prop picks for baseball.

The loss of Adolis García forces adjustments to the Philadelphia lineup, removing a premier slugger. Without his protection, Ashcraft can navigate the bottom half of the order with less resistance.

He will prove to be the difference, as I take the Pirates to win Monday.

Pirates vs Phillies Props

Marcell Ozuna Over 0.5 Hits (-143 at Caesars): Ozuna has cleared this mark in 10 of his last 11 road games, while picking up hits in seven of 10 games in June. It’s been a productive month for him, with a .294/.284/.330 slash line.

Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 Total Bases (+106 at DraftKings): Lowe has picked up at least 1.5 total bases in three of his last four against Philadelphia. Though he’s coming off an 0-for-4 game against the Mets, Lowe still has hits in 10 of his last 12 games, securing at least two total bases in six of those games.