Saints Remain Super Bowl Favorites After Taking Down Eagles

• The New Orleans Saints have the best odds to win Super Bowl 53 of the NFL’s remaining four teams
• They will host the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Championship game next Sunday
• Are the Saints the best bet left on the board?

There’s no surprises left among the NFL’s final four teams. If you asked any fans at midseason what the championship games would be: New Orleans Saints vs Los Angeles Rams for the NFC and Kansas City Chiefs vs New England Patriots for the AFC would’ve been the consensus.

Even though the Saints had the biggest scare over Divisional weekend, escaping with a 20-14 win over the Eagles, they remain the team with the shortest Super Bowl odds.

Super Bowl 53 Odds

*Odds taken 01/14/19

If I liked the Saints to win it all two weeks ago, did Sunday’s effort change their outlook at all? Quite the opposite actually.

New Orleans Can Win In So Many Ways

After falling in a quick 14-0 hole, the Saints had the look of the bye team that had a little too much rest.

But after a brutal first quarter, their divisional game resembled their Week 11 blowout of Philly. Offensively, Michael Thomas was unstoppable (leading the weekend in receiving) and defensively, they shut everything down.

We've got to talk about the fact that the @Saints defense had an all-time brilliant performance against Philadelphia after the first quarter. 97 yards and 0 points allowed in 3 quarters is purely dominant.

— Brayden Hall (@BraydenHall7) January 14, 2019

Marshon Lattimore and company made Foles magic finally disappear, and they’ve been doing that for the entire second half of the season. The Saints finished the year sixth in weighted defensive DVOA and haven’t allowed over 30 points in a meaningful game since their Week 9 game against the Rams.

https://twitter.com/NFLFBGAMETIME/status/1084613181228515328

Speaking of that game, the Saints were able to limit Todd Gurley to just 68 yards rushing.

That was partly because they built a big halftime lead, but keeping Gurley and CJ Anderson under wraps will be huge, as Jared Goff still hasn’t been able to recapture his early season magic.

What about the AFC?

While the Chiefs defense absolutely clobbered the Colts last weekend, they’re still the weakest unit – on either side of the ball – left in the playoffs.

Kansas City can score with anyone, but can they get a stop when it counts? Their defense is much better at Arrowhead, but how will it travel to a neutral site game?

As for New England, while they flexed their offensive muscles against a poorly-schemed Chargers defense, they are the lowest scoring of the remaining four teams, averaging 4.2 points per game fewer than the Saints across the 2018 season.

Best Bet

The NFC representative is a -155 favorite over the AFC rep. The Saints are currently a -175 favorite over the Rams.

A parlay of those two odds pays out around +158, so there is absolutely value in jumping on New Orleans now.  That is where my money will go.

But I also won’t fault any bettor that jumps on the Patriots. Getting a chance to bet New England in an underdog role is so rare, you have to consider it when it comes along.