Saint Mary’s vs UConn Picks & Odds – Huskies Favored by 3.5 Points in NCAA Tournament

Published: March 18, 2023 at 1:40 pm EDT

Teammates pick up Adama Sanogo — Mar 17, 2023; Albany, NY, USA; UConn Huskies forward Alex Karaban (11) congratulates forward Adama Sanogo (21) after a play against the Iona Gaels during the second half at MVP Arena. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

The UConn Huskies are 3.5-point favorites vs Saint Mary’s in second round West Region play in the NCAA Tournament
Both teams rank inside KenPom’s top 20 in defensive efficiency
See below for the latest Saint Mary’s vs UConn odds, predictions, and best bets

It’s going to be a second-round slugfest in the top half of the West’s March Madness bracket.

The prize for either the 5th-seeded Saint Mary’s Gaels (27-7, 18-13-2, ATS) or 4th-seeded UConn Huskies (26-8, 22-11-1 ATS) is a trip to the Sweet 16, where they take on the winner of no. 1 Kansas vs no. 8 Arkansas.

This matchup will feature two of the top defenses in college basketball. The Gaels rank eighth in defensive efficiency at KenPom, while the Huskies are at 18th.

Action gets underway Sunday (March 19) at MVP Arena in Albany, NY. Both game time and where to you can watch have yet to be determined at press time.

Saint Mary’s vs UConn Odds

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total
[5] Saint Mary’s Gaels	+3.5 (-110)	+145	Ov 130.5 (-110)
[4] Connecticut Huskies	-3.5 (-110)	-170	Un 130.5 (-110)

The Gaels will enter this as 3.5-point underdogs and +145 on the moneyline, an implied win probability of 40.82%. The game features a total of 130.5.

UConn has just one loss in its last eight games — the Big East Tournament Championship to Marquette. Saint Mary’s has just three losses in its last 21 games, and two of those were against the Gonzaga Bulldogs, the most recent in the WCC Tournament finale.

Odds as of Mar 18 at DraftKings Sportsbook. See the available March Madness betting promos.

UConn Comes Balanced

There’s a reason the Huskies rank fourth overall at KenPom — they’re tough on both sides of the ball. Offensively, they are scoring 79 points per game, which ranks 29th in the NCAA, and they’re just outside the top-100 in both field goal and three-point shooting.

One of their biggest strengths is offensive rebounding, where they rank eighth at 13.4 per game, though their rebounding percentage is first overall, grabbing 38% of misses.

This season, @UConnMBB is 17-0 when Adama Sanogo scores 20+ points. pic.twitter.com/5c8oYDPeFd

— CBS Sports College Basketball 🏀 (@CBSSportsCBB) March 17, 2023

Defensively, UConn holds teams to 64.8 points per game (43rd), and rank 11th in opponent effective field-goal percentage (45.5%). They defend the arc well, limiting schools to 29.7% shooting from distance, which ranks 14th.

Both elements shone through in their 87-63 opening round win over the Iona Gaels. Trailing by two at halftime, the Huskies cranked it up, outscoring Iona 50-24 in the second half.

Adama Sanogo dropped a game-high 28 points and 13 rebounds on 13-for-17 shooting. Jordan Hawkins added 13 points and four boards.

UConn held Iona to 38.6% shooting for the game.

Saint Mary’s vs UConn Head-to-Head

Missing Team

UConn Huskies

5	West Region Seed	4
27-7	Season Record	26-8
71.9	Points per Game	79.0
59.3	Points Against per Game	64.8
52.5%	Effective FG%	53.5%
46.7%	Opponent Effective FG%	45.5%

Gaels’ Defense Key in First Round

While the Huskies rank inside the top 10 in odds to win the NCAA Tournament, Saint Mary’s is inside the top 20, and could be a nice dark horse wager — if they can get past this Round 2 battle.

A sexy pick to be one of the higher seeds to get upset in Round 1, the Gaels busted those brackets with a 63-51 win over the VCU Rams.

Saint Mary’s, who play at KenPom’s 5th-slowest pace in all of college basketball, bent the tempo to their will, with both teams attempting just 49 field goal attempts. Comparatively, UConn hoisted up 66 tries, and Iona put up 57 attempts.

The Gaels held VCU to just 36.7% shooting for the game, and their second-lowest scoring output of the season.

Alex Ducas (@AlexDucas8) was solid in another performance for Saint Mary’s as the Gaels beat VCU 63-51 to advance and play on Sunday.

Ducas finished with 17 points, 8 rebounds, and 4 assists while playing all 40 minutes of the game.

The Senior is averaging 12.5pts and 4.2reb. pic.twitter.com/P2eUqlLJPi

— The College Basketball Guy (@NCAABBallGuy) March 18, 2023

Saint Mary’s boasts the 6th-best scoring defense in the NCAA, holding teams to 59.3 points per game, and rank 30th in field goal defense (40.7%).

Alex Ducas led the way offensively, putting up 17 points, eight rebounds, four assists and five steals. Mitchell Saxon matched Ducas’ 17, with seven rebounds, four assists and four blocks.

They did struggle beyond the arc in this one, though, hitting just 3-for-17 from distance, a 17.9% clip. They usually shoot it at a 37.2% average, which is 38th in the country. The Gaels average 71.9 points per game (176th).

Saint Mary’s vs UConn Prediction

The Huskies have been a great follow-up bet as of late, going 7-1 against the spread in their last eight following a win. They’re also worth betting on when the competition level rises, going 5-1 ATS in their last six against teams with a winning percentage over .600.

They level-up hasn’t quite been there for Saint Mary’s, who are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven against .600 or better teams. They’re also 1-5 ATS in their last six following a win.

Whether this game goes uptempo or dragged out, the Huskies are built for both. It’s hard to nail this spread, but bank on UConn advancing as the better-rounded team.

Pick: UConn ML (-170)

March Madness second-round predictions:

Eric Rosales

Sports Writer & Editor

Having worked in and around sports since 1997, Eric is truly a knowledgeable expert. The two-time journalism grad specializes in all things NBA and NFL. From TSN.ca to CTV's Olympic Broadcast Consortium, Eric's work has appeared in local and national publications alike.

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