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Game Winner Now Kentucky Derby Favorite Following Omaha Beach’s Surprising Scratch

Daniel Coyle

by Daniel Coyle in Horse Racing News

Updated Apr 22, 2020 · 10:43 AM PDT

Churchill Downs
With Omaha Beach now confirmed out for Saturday's running of the Kentucky Derby, Game Winner has emerged as the favorite to claim victory at Churchill Downs. Photo by Abbie Myers (Wikimedia Commons) [CC License].
  • Game Winner is favored to win the Kentucky Derby this Saturday
  • Omaha Beach has been scratched from the race due to renewed throat issues
  • Horses previously locked into gates 13 through 20 will now move up one post

With the news of Omaha Beach’s surprising scratch from the 145th running of the Kentucky Derby on Saturday evening, there has been a major shakeup in the Kentucky Derby odds, with Game Winner reclaiming top spot as a +333 favorite in horse racing futures.

2019 Kentucky Derby Odds

Team Odds to Win 2019 Kentucky Derby
Game Winner +333
Roadster +350
Improbable +450
Maximum Security +600
Tacitus +650
Code of Honor +1000
Win Win Win +1200
By My Standards +1600
Vekoma +1600
War of Will +1600

*Odds taken on 05/03/19

Omaha Beach Scratched Due to Throat Ailment

With Triple Crown-winning jockey Mike E. Smith as his mount, Omaha Beach stormed to the top of the odds board after making a successful return from throat surgery that had sidelined the three-year-old colt for several months. However, after landing the 12-post in Tuesday’s Kentucky Derby draw, trainer Richard Mandella was forced to make the hard decision to scratch Omaha Beach from Saturday’s race due to renewed throat issues.

In addition to impacting the Kentucky Derby odds, the move has also resulted in major changes in post positioning for Saturday’s race at Churchill Downs, with horses previously locked into gates 13 through 20 moving up one post while Bodexpress will enter the race in the 20-post after narrowly missing the cut with a 21st-place finish on the Road to the Kentucky Derby standings.

Game Winner Rebounds to Reclaim Favorite Status

For Game Winner, the departure of Omaha Beach is welcome news. Game Winner was pegged as an early race favorite before slipping down the odds following a disappointing start to 2019.

Game Winner was pegged as an early race favorite before slipping down the odds following a disappointing start to 2019.

The descendant of Seattle Slew was forced to settle for a second-place finish in Omaha Beach’s triumphant return to action at the Rebel Stakes, and followed up with a second-place run trailing Roadster at the Santa Anita Derby.

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However, Game Winner has some impressive wins to his credit, include victories in each of his first three graded stakes races in 2018, including the Los Alamitos Futurity, American Pharoah Stakes, and the prestigious Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

Stablemates Roadster, Improbable Closely Trail on Kentucky Derby Odds

Trained by the legendary Bob Baffert, Game Winner is closely followed in Kentucky Derby betting by a pair of stablemates with Roadster sitting second at +350, just ahead of Improbable at +400.

Roadster may be the horse enjoying the biggest boost from Omaha Beach’s bad news.

After picking up the win at Santa Anita, Roadster’s mount Mike E. Smith elected to switch to Omaha Beach. Now with his chief rival and former jockey out of contention for Saturday’s race, Roadster will enjoy a change in post position, moving from the notorious 17-gate, which has never produced a Kentucky Derby winner, to no. 16, which has been the starting gate of three race winners since 2000, with Orb most recently galloping to victory back in 2013.

Post Position, Weather Forecast Likely to Benefit Improbable

A second-place finisher in his past two outings, Improbable provides plenty of value as a +400 wager. Improbable finished a close second to Omaha Beach on a sloppy track last time at the Arkansas Derby after turning in a second-place performance at the Rebel Stakes.

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With rain in the forecast for Saturday afternoon in Louisville, Improbable may have ample opportunity to once again show off his skills as a mudder. In addition, Improbable will have history on his side starting from the five-post, which has produced a record 10 Kentucky Derby winners, including Always Dreaming two years ago, and California Chrome in 2014.

Pick: Improbable (+400)

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