Secretariat Given +175 Odds to Win Virtual Kentucky Derby: Triple Crown Showdown
- The Kentucky Derby is traditionally run on the first Saturday in May
- With Churchill Downs closed, a virtual Derby will take place instead featuring all 13 Triple Crown winners
- Secretariat is the favorite in the field of legends
There is no Kentucky Derby for NBC to broadcast on the first Saturday in May, but the show must go on and television air time must be filled. The Derby will be run in September, but this weekend there will be a virtual Kentucky Derby with all 13 Triple Crown winners participating.
At 5:45 PM ET, the field led by Secretariat will race a-mile-and-a-quarter in perfect conditions. The simulation is being done by Inspired Entertainment, and it works a lot like the NBA Draft Lottery. Secretariat will be given the most scenarios (ping pong balls) in which he can win, with other top choices like Whirlaway and Citation having a decent shot. Gallant Fox, Sir Barton, and Omaha — great champions but not considered in the class of Secretariat — will have fewer winning outcomes.
Fans can win prizes if they select the winner correctly, and Churchill Downs will match donations to COVID-19 emergency relief funds up to $2 million.
Of course, there is betting too. Let’s look at the field and consider our best options. And yes, there is strategy to this.
2020 Virtual Kentucky Derby Odds
| Horse | Odds |
|---|---|
| Secretariat | +175 |
| Citation | +400 |
| Seattle Slew | +800 |
| Whirlaway | +900 |
| Count Fleet | +900 |
| Affirmed | +1000 |
| War Admiral | +1000 |
| American Pharoah | +1600 |
| Gallant Fox | +2500 |
| Justify | +3300 |
| Assault | +3300 |
| Omaha | +5000 |
| Sir Barton | +5000 |
Odds as of April 30.
The Favorite
In 1973, Secretariat ran the Kentucky Derby in 1:59.40. It is generally accepted that top horses cover five lengths each second that they run. By that measure, he is nine lengths faster than any other horse in this race. That said, this is TV, and surely they want drama. That was not the case when they went to the starting gate 47 years ago.
Despite Secretariat’s greatness, clearly the track was running very fast that day as second-place Sham clocked in at 1:59.90. Those two plus Monarchos in 2001 are the only three horses to break the two-minute barrier in a history that dates back nearly a century and a half.
Triple Crown Winners’ Kentucky Derby Times
| Horse | Final Time |
|---|---|
| Secretariat | 1:59.40 (1973) |
| Affirmed | 2:01:20 (1978) |
| Whirlaway | 2:01.40 (1941) |
| Seattle Slew | 2:02:20 (1977) |
| War Admiral | 2:03.20 (1937) |
| American Pharoah | 2:03.20 (2015) |
| Count Fleet | 2:04:00 (1943) |
| Justify | 2:04:20 (2018) |
| Omaha | 2:05:00 (1958) |
| Citation | 2:05.40 (1948) |
| Assault | 2:06.60 (1946) |
| Gallant Fox | 2:07:60 (1930) |
| Sir Barton | 2:09.80 (1919) |
It is very much worth noting that the race conditions vary year-to-year. Sir Barton won on a heavy, quicksand-like track, while things were fast for Secretariat. How that plays out in the computer simulation, on a fast track, we will have to wait and see.
Other Contenders
Citation is the first horse to ever earn $1 million. He did so by winning 16 straight major stakes races. In total, he reached the winner’s circle 32 times in 45 tries with 10 second-place finishes. Jockey Eddie Arcaro is the only rider to win the Triple Crown twice. For this simulation, he will ride both Citation and Whirlaway. Asked by CBS which horse was better, he said, “Citation could carry the both of us and still beat Whirlaway.”
In 1977, Seattle Slew became the first Triple Crown winner to do so with an unblemished record. It was more than 40 years later that Justify became the second to do so. Seattle Slew won 14 of 17 career races.
Seattle Slew also had great bloodlines. He sired champions Swale and AP Indy, and is related to Tapit and California Chrome.
Affirmed likely had the greatest competition in the Triple Crown. He won three tightly contested races against all-time great Alydar. After Affirmed captured the Crown in 1978, nobody won it again for 37 years.
Affirmed made over $2 million with 22 lifetime wins in 29 starts.
If you want a more modern champ, American Pharoah snapped the drought in 2015.
While the speed figures never loved Pharoah, he won nine times in 11 races including the Breeders Cup Classic. If you believe modern horses are better than old timers, he’s your pick.
Analysis
We’re handicapping what a computer simulation is going to pick out of a hat, and what that really requires is understanding who a person or group of people think the most-likely winner is. There is no doubt Secretariat has the most lottery balls, but by what percentage?
Citation is widely regarded as the next best. Who has the third-best chance, that is unclear.
While 4/1 feels right on Citation, and Secretariat is probably more or less in the right neighborhood, we suspect American Pharoah actually provides value. It is our guess that, between recency bias and the fact he was a true superstar, he has around 10% of the ping pong balls, and that presents a good wagering opportunity with his odds at 16/1.
Dave Friedman has covered professional and college sports for two decades. From ESPN to the Associated Press, Regional Sports Networks, Metro Networks, and many local outlets, he has written about and broadcast major and minor events throughout the country.
