Much-Despised Alex Bregman Actually Sees AL MVP Odds Improve
- Alex Bregman and the Houston Astros are dealing with fallout from their sign-stealing scandal
- Despite the heat, Bregman’s AL MVP odds have actually improved
- Is there value in the 25-year old? Or is your money misplaced?
Alex Bregman is supremely talented. He’s coming off of a 2019 season where he set career-highs in homers, RBI, On-Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage among others.
He’s also the poster boy for the disgraced Houston Astros.
Bregman, Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa have found themselves taking the most heat for Codebreaker.
Despite that, two of those three still land among the top-12 in the AL MVP odds.
2020 AL MVP Odds
| Player | 2019 AL MVP Vote Share | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Trout (LAA) | 85% | -110 |
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | N/A | +900 |
| Alex Bregman (HOU) | 80% | +1200 |
| Gleyber Torres (NYY) | 2% | +1400 |
| Shohei Ohtani (LAA) | N/A | +1800 |
| Matt Chapman (OAK) | 21% | +2000 |
| Francisco Lindor (CLE) | 3% | +2000 |
| Anthony Rendon (LAA) | N/A | +2600 |
| Gerrit Cole (NYY) | 15% | +3000 |
| Marcus Semien (OAK) | 54% | +3000 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 10% | +3000 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | N/A | +3500 |
Odds taken Feb 28th.
So far it’s been unrivaled dominance from 2019 MVP Mike Trout when it comes to the 2020 AL MVP odds.
Since the books opened, Yankees teammates Aaron Judge and Gleyber Torres have been neck-and-neck. Judge just saw his biggest jump since the odds were posted.
But Bregman is the surprising one. He opened at +1600, bumped up to +1500, and now sits at +1414 on average.
Despite Controversy, Alex Bregman is a Rising Star
Aside from the tainting of the 2017 World Series, Houston’s cheating scandal has scarred a bright and promising career.
Bregman’s career year in 2019 underscored a steady rise over his first four seasons. Since debuting at age 22, the third baseman has quickly ascended to baseball’s superstar ranks.
Alex Bregman’s Career
| Season | AVG | HR | RBI | Runs | OBP | SLG% | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | .264 | 8 | 34 | 31 | .313 | .478 | 1.8 |
| 2017 | .284 | 19 | 71 | 88 | .352 | .475 | 3.8 |
| 2018 | .286 | 31 | 103 | 105 | .394 | .532 | 6.9 |
| 2019 | .296 | 41 | 112 | 122 | .423 | .592 | 8.4 |
As that improvement has taken place, the lineup around Bregman has matured, and he’s been given prime opportunities.
In 2019, Bregman was a staple in Houston’s top four. He spent the majority of his time hitting third (78 games), but also saw some time in the cleanup spot (34 games). The rest of his time was spent leading off or hitting second.
Mike Trout is currently -120 to win the AL MVP at @CaesarsEnt.
The players with the next-best odds are Alex Bregman and Francisco Lindor … at 12-1.
— Ben Fawkes (@BFawkesESPN) February 20, 2020
The one category where Bregman fell off in 2019 was doubles. In 2018 he led all of baseball with 51. As the home runs rose, that dropped to 37 last year, but the proof is there that he’s a threat to do almost anything in the box.
Bregman’s MVP Candidacy Falls on Votes
Here’s the thing. Bregman could walk to the plate topless for all 600+ at-bats this season, proving he can do it without the wire. Even if he smacks 70 homers, drives in 150 and steals 50 bases, it’s not up to him if he’s named AL MVP.
It’s the voters. And it’s safe to say they’re probably pissed.
MVP of the bush league
— The Rally Mullet Nats Fan (@TheRallyMullet) February 20, 2020
Baseball’s voters are fickle. Need proof? Ken Griffey Jr was left off of three ballots when he was voted into the Hall of Fame. Nolan Ryan missed on six of them, and eight people didn’t vote for Cal Ripken Jr.
And we’re expecting them to vote in favor of naming a cheater AL MVP?
If Not Bregman, Then Who?
Bregman will likely have a fine season, but he won’t be AL MVP.
One name that has some interesting value is Shohei Ohtani.
On last Halos Hot Stove of 2019 I made 5 predictions for 2020. I feel the same way today…
1- Rendon will be a gold glove finalist & win silver slugger.
2- Angels will be buyers at trade deadline
3- Ohtani 10 wins, 20 HRs
4- Trout wins 4th AL MVP
5- Angels make playoffs.— Trent Rush (@TrentRushSports) February 21, 2020
While it remains to be seen how effective he’ll be, Ohtani will be back on the mound this year. And there’s a chance the two-way star could at least have the Angels in the playoff hunt. The one drawback? He has yet to play more than 106 games in either of his Major League seasons.
Give me your under-the-radar, dark-horse 2020 MVP candidates.
Mine are:
• Matt Chapman (OAK)
• Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD)
• Shohei Ohtani (LAA)
• Giancarlo Stanton (NYY)
• Eloy Jiménez (CHW)
• Yoenis Céspedes (NYM)#MLB pic.twitter.com/LZ0Adxq06Y— Danny Vietti (@DannyVietti) February 24, 2020
Staying in the division, Matt Chapman is enjoying a similar trajectory to Bregman. He’s finished in the top-10 in AL MVP voting each of the last two years. And if the Astros stumble and the A’s take advantage? Chapman will be at the center of it.
Buzzers or not, don’t be surprised if Houston keeps on hitting. But there’s no way any of them take home AL MVP in 2020.
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
