Much-Despised Alex Bregman Actually Sees AL MVP Odds Improve

AL MVP odds
Despite being embroiled in controversy, Alex Bregman is still among the favorites for AL MVP. Could he overcome the hate and win it? Photo by D. Benjamin Miller (Wikimedia).
  • Alex Bregman and the Houston Astros are dealing with fallout from their sign-stealing scandal
  • Despite the heat, Bregman’s AL MVP odds have actually improved
  • Is there value in the 25-year old? Or is your money misplaced?

Alex Bregman is supremely talented. He’s coming off of a 2019 season where he set career-highs in homers, RBI, On-Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage among others.

He’s also the poster boy for the disgraced Houston Astros.

Bregman, Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa have found themselves taking the most heat for Codebreaker.

Despite that, two of those three still land among the top-12 in the AL MVP odds.

2020 AL MVP Odds

Player 2019 AL MVP Vote Share Odds
Mike Trout (LAA) 85% -110
Aaron Judge (NYY) N/A +900
Alex Bregman (HOU) 80% +1200
Gleyber Torres (NYY) 2% +1400
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) N/A +1800
Matt Chapman (OAK) 21% +2000
Francisco Lindor (CLE) 3% +2000
Anthony Rendon (LAA) N/A +2600
Gerrit Cole (NYY) 15% +3000
Marcus Semien (OAK) 54% +3000
Rafael Devers (BOS) 10% +3000
Jose Altuve (HOU) N/A +3500

Odds taken Feb 28th.

So far it’s been unrivaled dominance from 2019 MVP Mike Trout when it comes to the 2020 AL MVP odds.

Since the books opened, Yankees teammates Aaron Judge and Gleyber Torres have been neck-and-neck. Judge just saw his biggest jump since the odds were posted.

But Bregman is the surprising one. He opened at +1600, bumped up to +1500,  and now sits at +1414 on average.

Despite Controversy, Alex Bregman is a Rising Star

Aside from the tainting of the 2017 World Series, Houston’s cheating scandal has scarred a bright and promising career.

Bregman’s career year in 2019 underscored a steady rise over his first four seasons. Since debuting at age 22, the third baseman has quickly ascended to baseball’s superstar ranks.

Alex Bregman’s Career

Season AVG HR RBI Runs OBP SLG% WAR
2016 .264 8 34 31 .313 .478 1.8
2017 .284 19 71 88 .352 .475 3.8
2018 .286 31 103 105 .394 .532 6.9
2019 .296 41 112 122 .423 .592 8.4

As that improvement has taken place, the lineup around Bregman has matured, and he’s been given prime opportunities.

In 2019, Bregman was a staple in Houston’s top four. He spent the majority of his time hitting third (78 games), but also saw some time in the cleanup spot (34 games). The rest of his time was spent leading off or hitting second.

The one category where Bregman fell off in 2019 was doubles. In 2018 he led all of baseball with 51. As the home runs rose, that dropped to 37 last year, but the proof is there that he’s a threat to do almost anything in the box.

Bregman’s MVP Candidacy Falls on Votes

Here’s the thing. Bregman could walk to the plate topless for all 600+ at-bats this season, proving he can do it without the wire. Even if he smacks 70 homers, drives in 150 and steals 50 bases, it’s not up to him if he’s named AL MVP.

It’s the voters. And it’s safe to say they’re probably pissed.

Baseball’s voters are fickle. Need proof? Ken Griffey Jr was left off of three ballots when he was voted into the Hall of Fame. Nolan Ryan missed on six of them, and eight people didn’t vote for Cal Ripken Jr.

And we’re expecting them to vote in favor of naming a cheater AL MVP?

If Not Bregman, Then Who?

Bregman will likely have a fine season, but he won’t be AL MVP.

One name that has some interesting value is Shohei Ohtani.

While it remains to be seen how effective he’ll be, Ohtani will be back on the mound this year. And there’s a chance the two-way star could at least have the Angels in the playoff hunt. The one drawback? He has yet to play more than 106 games in either of his Major League seasons.

Staying in the division, Matt Chapman is enjoying a similar trajectory to Bregman. He’s finished in the top-10 in AL MVP voting each of the last two years. And if the Astros stumble and the A’s take advantage? Chapman will be at the center of it.

Buzzers or not, don’t be surprised if Houston keeps on hitting. But there’s no way any of them take home AL MVP in 2020.

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