Mariners vs Astros Game 2 Predictions & Odds

• The Mariners vs Astros Game 2 odds list Houston as -157 favorites on Thursday (Oct. 13) at 3:37 pm ET
• Seattle will turn to Luis Castillo (8-6, 2.99 ERA), while the Astros will counter with Framber Valdez (17-6, 2.82 ERA)
• Keep reading for the Mariners vs Astros ALDS Game 2 predictions

Sometimes you’re the hammer, and sometimes you’re the nail. As far as our Game 1 ALDS betting prediction is concerned, we were 100% the nail. Our under 2.5 Mariners team total was a loser by the 2nd inning, as Seattle wound up scoring seven runs, six of which came off Astros ace Justin Verlander.

Nevertheless, seven runs wasn’t enough to earn a victory for the M’s as Houston erased a four-run late game deficit by walking it off in the 9th inning to earn an 8-7 decision.

The ALDS will now have an off day on Wednesday before resuming with Game 2 on Thursday. Much like the series opener, oddsmakers are siding with the Astros, although not by nearly as much.

Mariners vs Astros Game 2 Odds

Odds updated at 7:40 am ET, October 12, at Barstool Sportsbook. Claim the Barstool Sportsbook promo code. 

Houston opened up as -154 moneyline favorites. The total opened at 6.5 but has been bet up to 7.0. The Astros are -500 to win this series and advance in the MLB playoff bracket, with Seattle coming back as a +380 underdog.

First pitch for Game 2 is scheduled for 3:37 pm ET at Minute Maid Park in Houston, Texas, with clear skies and 88-degree gametime temperatures on deck.

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Seattle vs Houston Probable Pitchers

Houston was a -215 favorite in Game 1 with Verlander on the mound, but the 39-year-old lasted just 4 innings. The Astros will be counting on a much better effort from Framber Valdez on Thursday, after he posted 17 wins and a 2.82 ERA during the regular season.

Dusty: Framber Valdez will go in game two and Lance McCullers Jr will go in game three.

— Mark Berman (@MarkBerman_) October 11, 2022

The 28-year-old comes in cold after posting two of his three worst outings of the campaign over the final two weeks of the season. He yielded 11 hits and seven runs to Baltimore, and nine hits and six runs to Tampa Bay in back-to-back outings. He closed the season with 5 shutout innings and 10 strikeouts against the Phillies, but was just mediocre in his two starts versus Seattle.

Valdez posted a 1-1 record, with a 3.95 ERA and a .255 opponent batting average. Mariners hitters have not fared especially well versus him in the past however, going 18-for-88, with 25 strikeouts and just two extra-base hits.

Valdez struggled during last year’s postseason, but was superb in the 2020 playoffs. He was 3-1 in four appearances, posting a 1.88 ERA and 1.00 WHIP.

Castillo vs Valdez Stats

The M’s will counter with Luis Castillo, who was brilliant in his 2022 playoff debut. The 29-year-old shutout the mighty Blue Jays bats in the Wild Card Round, throwing 7.1 scoreless innings of six-hit ball.

LUIS CASTILLO FIST PUMP https://t.co/LkpTiHWqWm

— Sports ON Tap Seattle (@SeattleONTap) October 7, 2022

He’s faced just three Houston regulars over the course of his career, but has fared well against stiff competition since joining Seattle. He beat not only Toronto, but other World Series odds contenders Cleveland and the NY Yankees over his 12 total starts with the Mariners.

Mariners vs Astros Betting Trends

Castillo will be hard pressed to keep the Houston lineup in check. The Astros pounded 11 hits and three home runs in Game 1, highlighted by Yordan Alvarez’s three-run walk-off blast.

YORDAN ALVAREZ WALK-OFF HR TO WIN GAME 1 OF THE ALDS‼️ 🚀

(via @MLB)pic.twitter.com/h8U1q6eSWH

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) October 11, 2022

The dinger came off last year’s AL Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray, who was brought on in a relief role specifically to face Alvarez’s left-handed bat. Perhaps Seattle was unaware of the fact that Alvarez has a .998 OPS against southpaws this season.

The victory was Houston’s first in 49 playoff games when trailing by multiple runs going into the 9th inning, while Alvarez’s blast was the first walk-off homer in postseason history by a team trailing by multiple runs.

It overshadowed an impressive day from the Seattle lineup, who lit up Verlander, the AL Cy Young odds favorite. They pounded 10 hits and chased him after only 4 innings. Star rookie Julio Rodriguez had a pair of extra-base hits and scored three times, while Eugenio Suarez and J.P. Crawford each hit solo homers.

Extra bases, anyone? #EmbraceTheChaos pic.twitter.com/2yP9sWweIj

— Seattle Mariners (@Mariners) October 11, 2022

Seattle has now scored 17 times in its past two playoff contests, but it’s worth noting their bats went cold once Verlander was out. They managed only three hits and one run off Houston relievers over 5 innings, which speaks to the quality of the Astros bullpen. They led MLB in ERA this season, while posting a 7.6 WAR.

SEA vs HOU – Last 10 Results

Mariners vs Astros Prediction

The advantage the Houston bullpen has over Seattle’s is enough for me to want to go back to the Astros well in Game 2. While Houston relievers clamped down on the M’s in Game 1, the Astros torched five Seattle relievers for five runs and six hits over 3.1 innings.

Houston won 55 times at home this season, more than any other team outside the Yankees and Dodgers. They’re 8-3 against the Mariners at Minute Maid Park in 2022, with a +28 run differential.

The rate at which Seattle’s lineup is producing in the postseason meanwhile, is simply not sustainable. They were an average team offensively all year, and negative regression is going to hit soon.

Pick: Houston Astros Moneyline (-154)