MLB Opening Day Home Run Facts, Figures and Odds
- MLB’s 2019 Opening Day (Mar. 28th) is less than two weeks away
- Bryce Harper is the active leader in Opening Day home runs (5) but still trails the all-time leaders by three
- No one has ever hit four home runs in a game on Opening Day
Every player in the MLB wants to start the season off on the right foot on Opening Day, and there’s no better way to begin the year than with a longball (or three).
Baseball has its equivalent of “morning people,” i.e. players who are particularly perky on Opening Day. It just so happens that the perkiest of all is also the man that’s dominated headlines this offseason: Philadelphia’s star free-agent acquisition Bryce Harper.
SBD’S Opening Day Home Run Odds
| Statistic | SBD’s Odds |
|---|---|
| Bryce Harper hits an Opening Day home run | 7/3 |
| Bryce Harper hits three Opening Day home runs | 3999/1 |
| Any player hits three home runs on Opening Day | 15/1 |
| Any player hits four home runs on Opening Day | 400/1 |
| Record for total Opening Day home runs by one team (6) is broken | 9/1 |
Despite only playing in six Opening Days so far in his short career, Harper is the active leader in Opening-Day dingers with five.
He had a streak of four straight years with an Opening Day home run snapped last year when he went 2-4 with two singles against the Reds.
Opening Day Home Run Stats and Records
| Statistic | Record Holder |
|---|---|
| Most Opening Day home runs by an active player | 5 (Bryce Harper) |
| Most Opening Day home runs (all-time) | 8 (Frank Robinson, Ken Griffey Jr, Adam Dunn) |
| Most Opening Day home runs in a single game | 3 (George Bell, Tuffy Rhodes, Dmitri Young, Matt Davidson) |
| Most Opening Day home runs by one team in a single game | 6 (2018 White Sox, 1988 Mets) |
Will Harper hit a home run in his first game as a Philly?
Will Harper start a new streak this year? Odds are against him. For his career, he averages one home run every 21.5 plate appearances. Put another way, there is about a 4.6% chance he homers in any given plate appearance.
Even giving him a bit of a boost for his prior Opening Day exploits and assuming he gets at least five plate appearances against the Atlanta Braves on Mar. 28th, there’s no better than a 30% chance he goes yard.
Will Harper tie the all-time record and go deep three times?
In terms of the all-time record, Harper still needs three home runs to catch Frank Robinson, Ken Griffey Jr, and Adam Dunn.
It wouldn’t be unprecedented to hit three home runs in one Opening-Day game, but it is pretty rare. Only four players have done it before, including the White Sox’ Matt Davidson just last year.
Will Any Player Hit Four Homers on Opening Day?
The odds that anyone breaks the record of three home runs in a game is extremely unlikely. Only 18 players have ever hit four homers in a game on any date in the calendar (though six of those have come in the last 16 years).
Basically, there is a four-homer game about once in every 6,075 games, if you limit the sample size to the last decade and a half. With 15 games on Opening Day, there’s about a 400/1 shot that any of those games includes a four-homer game from a single player.
Will Any Team Hit Seven Homers on Opening Day?
This record has a real shot to be broken. The all-time record for most home runs by one team in a single game is ten (Blue Jays, 1987). Almost every franchise in the league has hit seven home runs in a game on multiple occasions.
Matt Davidson’s White Sox tied the record of six last year in a 14-7 rout of the Royals.
While the odds above are just for amusement, there is no shortage of MLB wagers available at online sportsbooks. From season-long 2019 win totals to 2019 MLB playoff odds to 2019 World Series odds, we have it all covered.
Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has been with SBD since 2014. He specializes in football, basketball, politics, baseball, and hockey.
