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Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks Odds, Predictions & Injury Reports for Game 1 (April 21)

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in NBA Basketball

Updated Apr 23, 2024 · 7:37 AM PDT

Jan 3, 2024; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indiana Pacers guard Tyrese Haliburton (0) shoots the ball while Milwaukee Bucks forward Khris Middleton (22) defends in the second half at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Indiana Pacers visit the Milwaukee Bucks in Game 1 of their best-of-seven series on Sunday night
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo is “doubtful” due to a calf injury
  • See the Pacers vs Bucks odds, predictions, and full injury reports for Game 1 on April 21

The #6 Indiana Pacers (47-35, 21-20 away, 44-35-3 ATS) might be catching a huge break in Game 1 of their best-of-seven series against the #3 Milwaukee Bucks (49-33, 31-11 home, 35-46-1 ATS) on Sunday, April 21 (7:10 pm ET). Two-time NBA MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) is listed as “doubtful” to play in Game 1, and oddsmakers have positioned the visiting Pacers as slight favorites as a result.

Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Indiana Pacers -1.5 (-110) -115 O 231.5 (-115)
Milwaukee Bucks +1.5 (-110) -105 U 231.5 (-105)

The Pacers are currently 1.5-point favorites against the spread and slight -115 chalk on the moneyline. The Bucks come back as -105 home underdogs to win Game 1. The game total is at 231.5, which is the highest of the eight Game 1s this weekend. (Lakers/Nuggets was second-highest at 227 O/U.)

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Odds as of April 21 at Fanatics. Claim the Fanatics Sportsbook promo code to bet on Pacers vs Bucks on Sunday night. 

The Bucks head into the postseason as a +1600 bet in the NBA championship odds (sixth-best). The Pacers are currently +8400.

IND vs MIL Injury Reports

Seeing Antetokounmpo on the injury report is the worst-case scenario for Bucks fans. Giannis leads the team in scoring, rebounding and steals, and is second in assists and blocks (30.4 PPG, 11.5 RPG, 6.5 APG, 1.2 SPG, 1.1 BPG). The only silver lining is that Giannis is the only Milwaukee player currently carrying an injury designation.

On the Indiana side, only one name populates the injury report as well. Bennedict Mathurin (14.5 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 2.0 APG) underwent season-ending shoulder surgery in early March.

Bucks Under .500 Without Giannis

Antetokounmpo missed eight games in the regular season, and the Bucks managed just a 4-5 record without their star. That includes a string of four losses in their last five without Giannis.

In the final game of the regular season, Milwaukee let the #2 seed in the East slip away thanks to a 113-88 setback at Orlando (sans Giannis).

YouTube video

If that’s not enough to give the Pacers confidence, they can always look to their regular-season record against the Bucks. Indiana won four of five against their division rival, and Giannis suited up in all five.

All-Star point guard Tyrese Halliburton (20.1 PPG, 10.9 APG, 3.9 RPG) was sensational against the Bucks in the regular season. The 24-year-old averaged 27 points and 11 assists per game in Indiana’s five regular-season games against Milwaukee.

Pacers vs Bucks Player Props

Player Points Rebounds Assists Three-Pointers Made
Aaron Nesmith (IND) 11.5 (Ov -108 | Un -112) 4.5 (Ov +102 | Un -122) OFF 1.5 (Ov -130 | Un +110)
Andrew Nembhard (IND) 8.5 (Ov -102 | Un -118) 2.5 (Ov -100 | Un -120) 3.5 (Ov +102 | Un -122) 0.5 (Ov -238 | Un +195)
Bobby Portis (MIL) 17.5 (Ov -120 | Un -100) 10.5 (Ov -118 | Un -102) OFF 1.5 (Ov +124 | Un -148)
Brook Lopez (MIL) 13.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110) 5.5 (Ov -102 | Un -118) OFF 1.5 (Ov -135 | Un +114)
Damian Lillard (MIL) 28.5 (Ov -130 | Un +110) 4.5 (Ov -130 | Un +110) 7.5 (Ov  +124 | Un -148) 3.5 (Ov +105 | Un -125)
Khris Middleton (MIL) 20.5 (Ov -105 | Un -115) 6.5 (Ov +136 | Un -162) 6.5 (Ov  +136 | Un -162) 1.5 (Ov -166 | Un +140)
Malik Beasley) 7.5 (Ov -142 | Un +120) 2.5 (Ov +102 | Un -122) OFF 1.5 (Ov -135 | Un +114)
Myles Turner (IND) 16.5 (Ov -105 | Un -115) 7.5 (Ov +114 | Un -135) OFF 1.5 (Ov -148 | Un +124)
Obi Toppin (IND) 6.5 (Ov -125 | Un +105) 3.5 (Ov -105 | Un -115) OFF 0.5 (Ov -205 | Un +170)
Pascal Siakam (IND) 22.5 (Ov -115 | Un -105) 8.5 (Ov -115 | Un -105) 2.5 (Ov -170 | Un +142) 0.5 (Ov -155 | Un +130)
Patrick Beverley (MIL) 8.5 (Ov +110 | Un -130) 4.5 (Ov -118 | Un -102) 3.5 (Ov -105 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov +180| Un -218)
TJ McConnell (IND) 11.5 (Ov +120 | Un -142) 3.5 (Ov +124 | Un -148) 5.5 (Ov +124 | Un -148) 0.5 (Ov +180 | Un -218)
Tyrese Haliburton (IND) 20.5 (Ov -102 | Un -118) 4.5 (Ov -112 | Un -108) 10.5 (Ov  -102 | Un -118) 2.5 (Ov -175 | Un +145)

With Giannis unlikely to play, Damian Lillard has the highest point total on the board at 28.5. Mid-season acquisition Pascal Siakam is the highest Pacer at 22.5, while Haliburton and Khris Middleton are at 20.5.

Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks Predictions

The Pacers have dominated this matchup all season, and that was with Giannis healthy. The Pacers actually rated higher than Milwaukee in Net Rating, as well, finishing tenth at +2.9 compared to the Bucks in 11th at +2.6.

The Bucks played some games this season that showed their sky-high ceiling with both Antetokounmpo and Lillard healthy, but they never put all the puzzle pieces together for an extended period of time, and their play without Giannis has been mediocre at best.

IND vs MIL picks:

  • Pacers moneyline (-105) – two units
  • Haliburton over 20.5 points (-102)
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