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Florida State Favored in ACC Tournament Opening Odds; Duke +200, Louisville +275

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in College Basketball

Updated Mar 30, 2021 · 8:19 AM PDT

Leonard Hamilton
Florida State's head coach Leonard Hamilton talks up his bench in the second half of an NCAA college basketball game with Boston College Saturday, March 7 2020, in Tallahassee, Fla. Florida State won 80-62. (AP Photo/Steve Cannon)
  • Sportsbooks list the top-seeded Florida Seminoles as +175 favorites to win the ACC Tournament
  • Duke (+200) and Florida State were in the final last year, and are the top two betting choices this year. Will they meet in a rematch?
  • The ACC Tournament is slated for March 10-14 in Greensboro, NC. All of the ACC Tournament odds, picks and predictions are below

Based on the opening ACC Tournament odds, sportsbooks are backing a repeat performance in the championship game.

Last season, the Duke Blue Devils defeated the Florida State Seminoles 73-63 in the ACC Tournament final. This year, sportsbooks are banking on a reversal of that outcome.

Florida State is the +175 favorite to win the tournament. Duke is the +200 second betting choice.

2020 ACC Tournament Odds

School (seed) Odds
Florida State (1) +175
Duke (4) +200
Louisville (3) +275
Virginia (2) +700
North Carolina (14) +2200
Clemson (8) +2500
North Carolina State (5) +3300
Syracuse (6) +3300
Notre Dame (7) +4000
Georgia Tech (N/A) +10000
Miami (9) +10000
Pittsburgh (13) +10000
Virgina Tech (11) +10000
Wake Forest (12) +10000
Boston College (10) +15000

Odds taken March 8th.

The ACC Tournament is slated for March 10-14 in Greensboro, NC.

Georgia Tech is ineligible for the tourney due to an NCAA postseason ban for rules violations.

ACC Tournament Bracket

Seminoles Are Regular Season Champs

Finishing 16-4 in conference play, the Seminoles won their first-ever ACC regular-season title. Ranked #7 in the nation, Florida State (26-5) is headed for its fourth straight NCAA Tournament. But will they arrive to March Madness as ACC Tournament champions for the first time since 2011-12?

Even though top-seeded Florida State is favored by sportsbooks to win the ACC Tournament, the Seminoles aren’t getting much love in the 2020 National Championship odds. Florida State are sportsbooks 10th betting choice to win the NCAA Tournament at +2000.

They average out at odds of +1800 across the leading sportsbooks, tied with Louisville. Duke (+1600) is the top-rated team from the ACC. The Seminoles swept the Cardinals this season but show losses on their resume to both Duke and Virginia.

Florida State relies heavily on its backcourt of Devin Vassell and Trent Forrest. Vassell leads the team in points (12.7) and rebounds (5.1) per game. Forrest is tops on the team in assists (4.0) and steals (1.9).

Analytics Like Blue Devils

Duke enters the ACC Tournament as the #4 seed. However, both the analytic models on KenPom and TeamRankings.com see the Blue Devils as the team to beat in the tourney.

TeamRankings puts Duke’s odds of winning the ACC Tournament at 44.66%. Louisville (23.84%) is rated second, with Florida State (16.25%) third and Virginia (6.63%) fourth.  KenPom has the Blue Devils at 40.6% to win, followed by Louisville (23.7%), Florida State (17.9%) and Virginia (8.1%).

The Blue Devils suit up the likely ACC player of the year in sophomore guard Tre Jones. He’s scoring 16.2 ppg while leading the team in assists (6.4) and steals (1.8). Jones is also playing over 35 minutes a game. Center Vernon Carey Jr. leads the team in scoring (17.8), rebounds (8.8) and blocks (1.6).

But Duke has proven to be horribly inconsistent this season. The Blue Devils are 3-3 in their last six games, including a 1-3 stretch pockmarked by losses to Wake Forest, North Carolina State and Virginia.

2024 Wooden Award Odds: College Basketball Player of the Year Tracker
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Virginia A Solid Value Play

No team is rolling more impressively entering the ACC Tournament that the Virginia Cavaliers. The Cavs have won 11 of their last 12 games. A regular-season ending 57-54 win over Louisville earned Virginia the two-seed. That means unless one of the top four teams is upset, Florida State and Duke are destined to clash in the semifinals.

The reigning national champions are 23-7 but had lost four of five prior to their current hot streak. Absent superstar talent, Virginia must win by playing stout defense and grinding out low-scoring victories. But that’s also the style of basketball that wins in the playoffs.

At +700, the Cavs offer a stellar value bet.

ACC Tournament Is Wide Open

This is clearly a down year for the ACC. KemPom rates it as the fifth-best-conference. Still, there’s cream at the top. All of the ACC’s first four teams have won at least 23 games, and each is ranked in the AP top-25.

Duke, Virginia and Louisville were all 15-5 in conference play, one game back of Florida State. When it’s this tight, why not roll with the value?

Virginia is the team with the hot hand.

Pick: Virginia Cavaliers (+700).

SBD’s NCAA conference tournament coverage:

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