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New Mexico State vs Arkansas Picks and Odds

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in College Basketball

Mar 17, 2022 · 10:53 PM PDT

Teddy Allen dancing
New Mexico State guard Teddy Allen reacts during the second half of the team's college basketball game against Connecticut in the first round of the NCAA men's tournament Thursday, March 17, 2022, in Buffalo, N.Y. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)
  • Fresh off an upset of UConn, New Mexico State battles Arkansas in second-round play in the NCAA Tournament
  • The Razorbacks were an Elite Eight team a season ago
  • Read below for the New Mexico State vs Arkansas odds, analysis, and betting prediction

Teddy “Buckets” Allen is the latest quintessential NCAA Tournament feel-good, breakout story.

After leading the New Mexico State Aggies in an opening-round upset over the UConn Huskies, he could be a nightmare for the Arkansas Razorbacks in round two in the West Region.

Arkansas survived a close one in the First Round, outlasting the Vermont Catamounts 75-71. The ‘Hogs  were an Elite Eight team a season ago. They’re a 6.5-point favorite in the round of 32.

It all gets underway Saturday at KeyBank Center in Buffalo at 8:40 pm ET, in a game that can be seen live on TNT.

New Mexico State vs Arkansas Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
New Mexico State Aggies +230 +6.5 (-110) O 138 (-110)
Arkansas Razorbacks -286 -6.5 (-110) U 138 (-110)

Odds as of March 19th at Barstool Sportsbook.

Arkansas entered the tournament with +5000 NCAA Tournament champion odds. New Mexico State doesn’t register in those odds: they haven’t won two games in an NCAA Tournament since 1970.


Don’t hesitate to get in on the action. We’ve rounded up all the March Madness betting bonuses just waiting to give away money. Sharpen your skills a little with our strategies for betting on March Madness.

New Mexico State Betting Analysis

As the Aggies put the finishing touches on the school’s first tournament win since 1993, a star was born on the national stage.

Teddy Allen was a man on fire Thursday night, torching the 5th-seeded UConn Huskies to the tune of 37 points in a 70-63 win. That win snapped a lengthy 12-game March Madness losing streak for New Mexico State.

His legend was cemented over a series of late plays to hold off UConn, who worked their way out of a 14-point second-half hole to draw even as late as 5:08 to go in the game.

With the game tied at 58, Allen drilled a rainbow three with 1:40 to play. Shortly after, he hit the floor to force a turnover near half-court, picked himself up and took a pass, and went straight to the hoop, drawing a hoop and harm.

He stood up and quickly flexed for the Aggies faithful.

In all, Allen scored the final 15 points for NMSU, going 4-for-7 from three point range while running a perfect 13-for-13 from the stripe. He was the only Aggies player to shoot free throws in the game.

Defensively, New Mexico State held UConn to just 7-for-23 from deep, a 30.4% clip.

Arkansas Razorbacks Betting Analysis

Perhaps this was the scare the Razorbacks needed to overcome to get their tournament rolling.

The ‘Hogs were third in the SEC this season in pace, and ranked 28th in the nation in KenPom’s pace metric, but they saw a lot of half court play against the Catamounts, who rank 288th in pace at KenPom.

Fortunately, they got enough big performances from key sources, including senior Stanley Umude. After averaging just over 11 points a game in the regular season, he led the team in scoring with 21 points, adding nine rebounds and hitting 3-of-4 from downtown.

That helped support All-SEC first-teamer JD Notae, who had 17 points, seven boards and four assists, though he struggled from downtown, hitting just 1-for-7 from deep. Jaylin Williams pumped in a 13-point, 10-rebound double-double.

While they reached just 56 field goal attempts for the game, while hitting just 7-for-21 from three point range (33.3%), Arkansas was able to make some hay at the free throw stripe, taking 25 freebies, and outscoring Vermont 20-10 from the line.

New Mexico State vs Arkansas Pick

The Aggies have now won five straight as a betting underdog, and improved to 7-6 against the spread in their last 13.

Arkansas improves to 20-13-1 against the spread this season.

These teams are better known for offense, but have some defensive chops. The Razorbacks surrendered 67.6 points per game in the regular season, which was middle of the pack in the SEC. However, they did limit teams to 40.9% shooting, including 32.2% from deep.

NMSU, meanwhile, finished third in the WAC allowing 65 points per contest. Their defensive shooting splits are more impressive as well holding opponents to 39.1% shooting from the field, and 30.3% from distance.

Look for the more experienced Razorbacks to end the fun run, but not without Allen going off again to keep it close.

Pick: New Mexico State +6.5 (-110)

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Regional Previews

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