Odds Favor Lovie Smith (Illinois) and Chris Ash (Rutgers) Getting Fired Before Dec. 31, 2019
- Lovie Smith has all the potential to not screw this up and keep his job
- Chris Ash is in a bit of a QB pickle and is definitely getting fired
- It’s not strategy that will save jobs, it’s just winning, and not even that much
Lovie Smith and Chris Ash have had rough tenures at Illinois and Rutgers, respectively. So rough, in fact, that bettors can now wager on the pair getting fired before the calendar turns to 2020. Ash is 7-29 overall
and. The chances of at least one of them getting fired is incredibly high and the chances of both of them getting fired are up there as well.
However, there is some saving grace on each of their rosters but Smith has the better deal over Ash by far. Blame the “free agency” loophole or count it as a blessing, both these coaches have a lot riding on this season.
Odds Lovie Smith Is Fired By Illinois Before Dec. 31, 2019
| Lovie Smith Fired Before Dec 31, 2019 | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | -170 |
| No | +120 |
Smith is 9-27, overall, at Illinois, and a woeful 4-23 in Big Ten play. He was fired from the Chicago Bears in 2014 and from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2016. Now, he’s favored to be fired for the third time in five years.
He’s had three years to take a 5-7 team back to bowl eligibility. Instead, he’s taken the Illini in the opposite direction, never surpassing four wins in any of his three seasons.
He was expected to bring more than just football strategy. He was supposed to change the culture, help the team mature, and perform some wizardry on the side. He’s done none of the above.
It’s time to deliver, and Smith is promising that this year is different.
“There will be a team that will come from nowhere and will have an outstanding year…We plan on being us.” — Lovie Smith
However, things may actually be different this season. First, for the past three years, Smith has played a lot of freshmen and sophomores. He now has seasoned lines with 18 returning starters on the roster.
“He provides that home run punch at any time.” – @IlliniRSmith
After an ?explosive? 2018 season, @JuicedUpReg is ready to take it to another level for his final season in ?&?. #Illini x #JointheFight https://t.co/dOovKH6nC4
— Illinois Football (@IlliniFootball) July 28, 2019
Additionally, the Illinois recruiting staff has played the transfer game really well. They now have former USC receivers Josh Imatorbhebhe and Trevon Sidney, along with linebacker Oluwole Betiku Jr., and offensive guard Richie Petitbon from Alabama.
So, in theory, they are locked and loaded (relative to past years anyway) and ready to climb the rankings, possibly becoming eligible for a bowl game for the first time since 2014. Smith has the tools he needs to execute this.
How you bet this prop depends on how you see the team’s season playing out. I see Illinois surpassing its 2019 win total of 3.0 and having enough success for Smith to keep his job.
Odds Chris Ash Is Fired By Rutgers Before Dec. 31, 2019
| Chris Ash Fired Before Dec 31, 2019 | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | -200 |
| No | +170 |
If you thought Lovie’s record was shameful, let me introduce you to Chris Ash. Ash has been the head coach at Rutgers since 2016 and has a 7-29 overall record. Like Smith, he’s only managed four Big Ten wins.
On top of this three-year record, Rutgers is coming off a 1-11 season. It’s somewhat surprising that Rutgers AD Pat Hobbs made his confidence in Ash very public, because he’s going to have to eat those words later this season:
Hey CBS Sports! You can take my guy off your list. Program building takes time and Chris Ash is doing a great job! https://t.co/eg09sDpsD3
— Pat Hobbs (@PatHobbsRU) July 21, 2018
Like Smith, Ash is adamant that this season is going to be a turnaround. A lot of the evidence that Ash and the staff are citing as reasons they’ll do better is similar to the Smith argument:
“Whenever you take over an organization trying to build, very rarely does it go in a straight line. There’s ups, there’s downs, there’s plateaus. From Year 1 to Year 2 we improved; Year 3 we took a step back. Year 4 we expect to take a big step up.” — Chris Ash
I don’t buy this for a second. His promise is pure lip service and doesn’t stack up to the tool belt Lovie has on. His redshirt freshman QB, Art Sitowski, didn’t exactly light it up in 2018 and he’s still at the top of the depth chart. The NCAA denied the transfer waiver petition for former Boston College QB Johnny Langan. The school is appealing, but he’s not an option right now.
McLane Carter, who transferred from Texas Tech, is coming off ankle surgery.
What will it take for Ash to not get fired? Wins. Probably at least three or four of them. Looking at the Rutgers schedule and the team’s roster, I don’t see more than two.
Lindsay Van Gyn is a freelance sports writer and full time sports communicator. She has a degree in cultural anthropology and a Masters in Sport Communication. College Football and the NFL are her highest priorities when it comes to sports.
