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2019 NFC Wild Card Player Props: Seahawks vs Cowboys

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in NFL Football

Updated Apr 8, 2020 · 7:26 PM PDT

Ezekiel Elliott Cowboys RB
Ezekiel Elliott was rested in Week 17 and says he's ready for his heaviest workload of the year against Seattle this weekend. By Keith Allison (Wiki Commons) [CC License]
  • The Seattle Seahawks visit the Dallas Cowboys on Saturday night (January 5th) of Wild Card Weekend
  • Will two of the league’s top running backs have success this weekend?
  • Will Seattle’s deep passing game result in big days for Baldwin and Lockett?

The NFC Wild Card Playoff features a matchup between the 10-6 Seattle Seahawks and 10-6 Dallas Cowboys.

We dig into the prop cards to find the three best bets for the second of four games this weekend.

Prop #1: Ezekiel Elliott To Have 5+ Receptions & 40+ Receiving Yards

Ezekiel Elliott Props Odds
At Least 5 Receptions -303
At Least 40 Receiving Yards -152
Parlay -110

*For more options please follow the link in the table. All odds taken on 01/03/2019.

Zeke’s receiving averages on the season see him recording 5.1 receptions and 37.8 yards per game.

While just last month he caught 12 passes in a game against Philadelphia, his norm resides in the five-to-seven catch territory. Eight times this season Elliott has fallen within that range.

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What makes me like this portion of the prop even more is that Elliott hasn’t failed  to catch at least five passes since way back on November 5. He’s been a lock for at least five receptions in the seven games since.

Zeke was rested in Week 17 and expects to see a lot of touches. That should come on both the ground and through the air.

Football Outsiders have Seattle ranked 13th against running back passes, allowing 52.5 YPG. Elliott has finished with over 40 yards receiving in three of this past four games and six times total on the season.

Pick 1: Ezekiel Elliott To Have At Least 5 Receptions & At Least 40 Receiving Yards

Prop #2: Chris Carson To Have 70+ Rushing Yards & 1+ TDs

 Chris Carson Props Odds
At Least 1 Rushing TD -111
At Least 70 Rushing Yards -238
Parlay +110

The Seahawks have the league’s number one rushing offense and Carson leads the team with 1,151 yards. That’s good for fifth-most yards in the league.

Carson’s last three games have each seen him top 100 yards on the ground while also finding the end zone four times.

Those four touchdowns are part of a streak that’s seen him record at least one rushing touchdown in six of the past seven games.

From a yardage standpoint, Carson is rushing for an average of 82.2 YPG this season. However, due to rushing for only six, seven, and eight yards on three occasions, that number is actually skewed downwards.

Take those games out, where he barely touched the ball, and that average rises to 94.2.

Again without those three games, only four times in 11 games did he fall short of the 70-yard mark. One of those games, he finished with 69.

Carson Rushing TDs vs Rushing Yards Last 5 Games

Rush TDs
VS
Rush Yards
1 Week 17 122
2 Week 16 116
1 Week 15 119
1 Week 14 90
0 Week 13 69

When these teams met back in Week 3, Carson saw his highest usage of the year with 32 carries. No other game this season did he carry the ball more than 27 times.

Those 32 carries equated to 102 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown.

Pick 2: Chris Carson To Have At Least 1 Rushing TD & 70 Rushing Yards

Prop #3: Doug Baldwin & Tyler Lockett To Combine For 125+ Receiving Yards

Player Props Odds
Baldwin & Lockett At Least 115 Receiving Yards -179
Baldwin & Lockett At Least 120 Receiving Yards -154
Baldwin & Lockett At Least 125 Receiving Yards -133
Baldwin & Lockett At Least 130 Receiving Yards -115
Baldwin & Lockett At Least 135 Receiving Yards -108

Seattle’s top two receivers will be hoping for similar performances to what they turned in two weeks ago against Kansas City.

Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett combined for 225 yards that game. To cash this prop the two receivers will need to just slightly outperform their season averages.

Baldwin has 618 yards this season for an average of 47.5 YPG, while Lockett leads the team with 976 and an average of 60.3.

Baldwin vs Lockett Receiving Yards Last 5 Games

Baldwin
VS
Lockett
27 Week 17 66
126 Week 16 99
77 Week 15 45
– Week 15 42
22 Week 14 52
39 Week 13 107

While the Cowboys are ranked 13th in YPG defending the pass, take a look at the chart below and you’ll see they’ve been struggling in giving up explosive passes (20+ yards) the past month.

The past four games they rank 22nd, compared to their season-long rank of eighth.

The Seahawks by comparison rank seventh in explosive passes on the year and 11th this past month.

Russell Wilson and the Seahawks have mastered the deep ball this season which should allow Baldwin and Lockett to rack up some chunk yardage.

Last week the Giants’ top two receivers totaled 153 yards against Dallas. But even their second and third receivers combined for 139.

The Bucs had a similar showing with their top two recording 169 yards and second and third having 134. The Colts in Week 15 also saw TY Hilton and Nyheim Hines finish with a combined 130 yards.

Pick 3: Doug Baldwin & Tyler Lockett To Combine For At Least 125 Receiving Yards

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