2020 NFC South Predictions, Odds, Projected Records, and Win Totals
- The New Orleans Saints are favored to win the NFC South, followed by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- The Bucs made the biggest headlines during the offseason adding legend Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski
- See below for a preview of the NFC South and our pick to win the division
For the last three seasons the New Orleans Saints have been the kings of the NFC South. The Saints have posted at least 11 wins in each of those years, winning 13 games in 2018 and 2019.
PFF Grade & Rank since 2017:
Drew Brees – 94.9 (1st)
Alvin Kamara – 90.4 (4th)
Michael Thomas – 93.5 (1st)The #Saints are loaded on offense entering 2020. But will it translate to postseason success? pic.twitter.com/lrj79iUcQR
— PFF (@PFF) August 22, 2020
New Orleans is once again favored to win the division in 2020, but the competition promises to be a lot stronger, specifically from Tampa Bay. The Bucs made a huge splash in the offseason bringing in six-time Super Bowl champion Tom Brady, and Rob Gronkowski, and just recently added Leonard Fournette to bolster an already loaded roster. Those moves have left Tampa Bay trailing only New Orleans in the NFL Divisional odds, ahead of both Atlanta and Carolina.
2020 NFC South Odds and Win Totals
| Team | Odds at FanDuel | Win Total at FanDuel | SBD Win Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Saints | -115 | 10.5 | 11-5 (21.2%) |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +160 | 9.5 | 9-7 (20.2%) |
| Atlanta Falcons | +700 | 7.5 | 7-9 (21.2%) |
| Carolina Panthers | +1700 | 5.5 | 5-11 (22.2%) |
Odds taken Sept. 5th
The Panthers are fresh off an injury riddled 5-11 season, and are one of just four NFL Teams projected to win fewer than six games in 2020.
Carolina Panthers
- 2019 Record: 5-11
- Offense: 21.3 points per game (31st); 341.8 yards per game (19th)
- Defense: 29.4 points allowed per game (31st); 374.5 yards allowed per game (23rd)
- Turnover differential: -14 (30th)
Carolina finished next-to-last in both points for and points against in 2019. They’ve been rebuilt on both sides of the ball, and while the offense is sure to improve, the defense will likely be among the league’s worst.
As a fellow linebacker in the 2012 draft, Luke Kuechly was the cream of the crop.
I respect the hell out of his decision to retire. He missed 3 games in ‘15, & the final 6 games of ‘16 with a concussion. He is a hall of famer, but life is more than football. pic.twitter.com/O7ep4ZxjJP
— Emmanuel Acho (@EmmanuelAcho) January 15, 2020
Luke Kuechly announced his retirement in January, team sack leader Mario Addison moved on to Buffalo and their top corner James Bradberry landed in New York. This team is going to struggle to stop the elite offenses in their division and will need to rely heavily of their own offense to keep them in games.
Key Offseason Moves
| Key Additions | Key Losses |
|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater, QB | Cam Newton, QB |
| Robby Anderson, WR | Luke Kuechly, LB (retirement) |
| Eli Apple, CB | Trai Turner, G |
| Russell Okung, OT | James Bradberry, CB |
| Stephen Weatherly, DE | Mario Addison, DE |
| Tahir Whitehead, LB | Gerald McCoy, DL |
| Seth Roberts, WR | Greg Olsen, TE |
Former MVP Cam Newton is now a New England Patriot, and Teddy Bridgewater is the new starting quarterback. The Panthers will feature Christian McCaffrey heavily once again, but there are concerns about Bridgewater’s ability to maximize the talent of the rest of the team’s playmakers. Bridgewater is more of a game manager and didn’t show a willingness to push the ball downfield in 2019. He averaged just 7.5 yards per pass attempt and that doesn’t exactly suit Robby Anderson or Curtis Samuel’s vertical skillset.
Prediction: 4-12 (4th)
Atlanta Falcons
- 2019 Record: 7-9
- Offense: 23.8 points per game (13th); 379.7 yards per game (5th)
- Defense: 24.9 points allowed per game (22nd); 355.8 yards allowed per game (20th)
- Turnover differential: -5 (24th)
This year’s Atlanta Falcons team profiles very similarly to the ones of 2018 and 2019. The offense should be able to produce at a high level but there are questions surrounding the defense. Dan Quinn is known as a defensive coach, but his team has ranked in the bottom third of the league in points allowed in each of the last two seasons.
Cornerback Desmond Trufant and edge rusher Vic Beasley, both 1st round picks, are gone while the team added Dante Fowler to bolster the pass rush, and Deone Bucannon and Darqueze Dennard to shore up the secondary.
Fire up the guitars.@dantefowler coming through! 🎸🤘 pic.twitter.com/5m1XvvXPVh
— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) October 20, 2019
On offense, they swapped out Austin Hooper for Hayden Hurst at tight end, and Devonta Freeman for Todd Gurley at running back. If Gurley can return to his 2018 form, he could help elevate the Falcons to a contender, but banking on him to stay healthy is a risky proposition.
Key Offseason Moves
| Key Additions | Key Losses |
|---|---|
| Hayden Hurst, TE | Desmond Trufant, CB |
| Dante Fowler, EDGE | Vic Beasley, EDGE |
| Todd Gurley, RB | Austin Hooper, TE |
| Deone Bucannon, SS | Devonta Freeman, RB |
| Darqueze Dennard, CB | De’Vondre Campbell, LB |
| Charles Harris, DE | Ty Sambrailo, OL |
Atlanta projects to have one of the toughest schedules in the league and while they did make some key upgrades, it doesn’t appear to be enough to hang with the NFC’s elite.
Prediction: 8-8 (3rd)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- 2019 Record: 7-9
- Offense: 28.6 points per game (3rd); 397.9 yards per game (3rd)
- Defense: 28.1 points allowed per game (29th); 343.9 yards allowed per game (15th)
- Turnover differential: -13 (28th)
All the hype in Tampa Bay is surrounding the additions of Brady and Gronk, but flying under the radar is how good this defense could be. They placed the franchise tag on sack king Shaquil Barrett and re-signed Jason Pierre-Paul and Ndamukong Suh. They were incredibly stout against the run last season, and won’t have to deal with defending a short field multiple times a game thanks to Jameis Winston interceptions.
Shaquil Barrett was a MONSTER yesterday with 9 total pressures (4 sacks) 😤💪
(via @Buccaneers)
— PFF (@PFF) September 23, 2019
As for Brady, this has to be one of the most talented offensive teams he’s ever been apart of, but the question remains how much does he have left? His average yards per attempt was just 6.8 in 2019 and he completed only 60.8% of his passes. He was especially tough to watch under pressure last season, and this Bucs offensive line isn’t among the league’s best.
.@TomBrady's weapons in Tampa:
– Mike Evans
– Chris Godwin
– Gronk
– O.J. Howard
– LeSean McCoy
– Leonard Fournette pic.twitter.com/A6tRbjXvfw— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) September 3, 2020
However, betting against Brady has proved to be a fool’s errand over the last 19 years and with the new weapons he has at his disposal, nobody will be surprised if this season culminates in a deep playoff run.
Key Offseason Moves
| Key Additions | Key Losses |
|---|---|
| Tom Brady, QB | Jameis Winston, QB |
| Rob Gronkowski, TE | Breshad Perriman, WR |
| Leonard Fournette, RB | Peyton Barber, RB |
| LeSean McCoy, RB | Carl Nassib, DE |
| Joe Haeg, OT | Beau Allen, DT |
Tampa Bay is certainly live to win the NFC South, but usurping New Orleans is going to be a big hill to climb.
Prediction: 10-6 (2nd)
New Orleans Saints
- 2019 Record: 13-3
- Offense: 28.6 points per game (3rd); 373.9 yards per game (9th)
- Defense: 21.3 points allowed per game (13th); 333.1 yards allowed per game (11th)
- Turnover differential: +15 (2nd)
There is very little turnover from the Saints 2019 roster, but they did add another weapon for Drew Brees in Emmanuel Sanders. He’ll join Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara as the primary playmakers on an offense that scored 28.6 points per game and enjoys one of the biggest home field advantages in football.
Highest-graded QBs over the last two seasons:
1. Drew Brees – 94.8
2. Patrick Mahomes – 93.7
3. Russell Wilson – 92.8 pic.twitter.com/aj29GFdHiQ— PFF (@PFF) September 3, 2020
New Orleans is 19-5 at home over the past three seasons and is built to succeed on the fast turf on both sides of the ball. 2020 could be Drew Brees’ final season as a member of the Saints, and their Super Bowl window is closing.
The offense gets all the accolades, but the defense is no joke. New Orleans forced 23 turnovers last season and racked up 51 sacks, the third most in the NFL. They ranked eighth against the pass and fifth against the run per DVOA and will return nearly all of their key starters.
Key Offseason Moves
| Key Additions | Key Losses |
|---|---|
| Malcolm Jenkins, FS | Teddy Bridgewater, QB |
| Emmanuel Sanders, WR | Vonn Bell, SS |
| Jameis Winston, QB | AJ Klein, LB |
| James Hurst, RT | Eli Apple, CB |
The Saints are still the class of the NFC South, and Brees proved in 2019 he’s still got plenty left in the tank. They project to face the ninth toughest schedule, but each of their three most difficult out of division games (vs Green Bay, San Francisco and Kansas City) are all on home turf where they excel.
Prediction: 12-4 (1st)
Other division previews:
- 2020 AFC East Predictions, Odds, Projected Records, and Win Totals
- 2020 AFC North Predictions, Odds, Projected Records, and Win Totals
- 2020 AFC South Predictions, Odds, Projected Records, and Win Totals
- 2020 AFC West Predictions, Odds, Projected Records, and Win Totals
- NFC East Predictions, Odds, Projected Records, and Win Totals
- NFC North Predictions, Odds, Projected Records, and Win Totals
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
