Best 49ers vs Seahawks Same-Game Parlay for TNF
- We’ve cooked up a four-leg 49ers vs Seahawks same-game parlay for Thursday Night Football
- Will Brock Purdy throw for less than 219.5 yards? Can San Fran hold Seattle under 21.5 points?
- Don’t miss our 49ers vs Seahawks same-game parlay picks below
A massive NFC West showdown is on deck tonight on Thursday Night Football. The 49ers travel to Seattle needing a victory to lock up the division crown. The Seahawks meanwhile, are on the outside of the NFC playoff picture looking in, and a defeat would derail their postseason aspirations.
The public was pounding San Francisco as short road favorites early in the week per the 49ers vs Seahawks public betting splits, but Seattle money has started to show up this afternoon.
If the Seahawks are going to pull off the upset, they’re going to want to keep the ball in Brock Purdy’s hands. Despite the impressive start to his NFL career, Purdy is far less dangerous than the San Fran rushing attack.
We’re looking to fade Purdy in our 49ers vs Seahawks same-game parlay, and the same goes for one of his top targets as well.
49ers vs Seahawks Same-Game Parlay
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| Brock Purdy Under 219.5 Passing Yards | -120 |
| Brandon Aiyuk Under 69.5 Receiving Yards | -235 |
| Seattle Seahawks Under 21.5 Points | -155 |
| Marquise Goodwin Over 19.5 Receiving Yards | -200 |
| PARLAY ODDS | +350 |
Odds as of December 15 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Claim the DraftKings Sportsbook promo where you can get Christian McCaffrey to score a TD boosted to +100 odds.
This San Francisco-Seattle SGP features four legs, and pays out +350 odds if it hits. The under on Purdy’s passing yards is our first target, as the Niners want nothing more than to establish the run at all costs.
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Brock Purdy Under 219.5 Passing Yards
As it happens, the Seahawks defense is much more susceptible to the run than the pass. They rank 18th in pass defense per DVOA, but 26th against the run. Only two teams have allowed more total production to enemy RB’s than Seattle per the 49ers vs Seahawks picks, and the way Christian McCaffrey is running the ball, the Seahawks should expect a heavy dose of CMC.
Christian McCaffrey appreciation post 🫡
14 rushes, 119 yards, 1 TD
2 receptions, 34 yards, 1 TD #49ers || #FTTB pic.twitter.com/zkEetDq6L8— OurSF49ers (@OurSf49ers) December 12, 2022
McCaffrey is fresh off a 119-yard rushing performance and has a feature role in the 49ers vs Seahawks player props. Every carry CMC gets takes away a passing opportunity for Purdy. If the game script goes in San Fran’s favor, Purdy will likely drop back fewer than 25 times, but even if it doesn’t San Fran will be hesitant to put all their eggs in Purdy’s basket.
For one, he’s banged up, as his number one receiver. Purdy will start despite an oblique injury, but Deebo Samuel is out per the 49ers vs Seahawks injury report. Secondly, the Niners run the ball at the league’s eighth-highest rate.
Purdy has thrown for 210 yards in each of his first two appearances, and will be hard pressed to top that number tonight.
Brandon Aiyuk Under 69.5 Receiving Yards
Just because Samuel is out, don’t expect a major uptick in volume for Brandon Aiyuk. He saw only three targets last week against the Bucs, and hasn’t exceeded 65 yards in any of his past four games.
Brandon Aiyuk Stats – Last 5 Games
| REC | TGT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 3 | 57 | 1 |
| 5 | 9 | 46 | 0 |
| 5 | 8 | 65 | 0 |
| 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
In fact, Aiyuk has only four games with 70 or more receiving yards on his 2022 resume. In the two games he’s played with Purdy, Aiyuk has just a 58% reception rate, and he has fewer than 65 yards in each of his past three outings versus Seattle.
Seattle Seahawks Under 21.5 Points
The Seahawks managed only seven points in their first matchup against the 49ers. Granted, Geno Smith has improved significantly since then, building incredible chemistry with his pass catchers.
However, there is not a defense in football playing as well as San Francisco’s at the moment. They’ve allowed 17 or fewer points in six straight games, yielding an average of just 10.6 points per outing during that stretch.
NFL Defense Ranks Per DVOA
| Team | Rank |
|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | 1 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 2 |
| New England Patriots | 3 |
| Buffalo Bills | 4 |
| Denver Broncos | 5 |
The Niners rank second on defense per DVOA, and top-nine in pressure rate, sacks and coverage. Based on the game’s 43-point over/under, neither Seattle or San Fran is expected to put up a ton of points. If however, one of them is going to get to 22 points it’s not likely to be the Seahawks.
Marquise Goodwin Over 19.5 Receiving Yards
If there’s a weakness on the San Francisco pass defense, it shows up in two areas. In the slot, and in the deep passing game. If you’re looking for a Seattle pass-catching option to exploit those areas, consider Marquise Goodwin.
Geno Smith threw his 3rd TD of the day, this one to Marquise Goodwin pic.twitter.com/a2UFHVjbVj
— Dugar, Michael-Shawn (@MikeDugar) December 12, 2022
The former Olympic sprinter, and former 49er, has assumed a significant role with Seattle lately. He operates primarily out of the slot, and has racked up at least 22 receiving yards in eight of 10 games this season. Last week he went off for 5 catches, 95 yards and a score, and leads all Seahawks in yards per catch at 15.1.
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As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
