Commanders Super Bowl Odds & Jayden Daniels MVP Odds After Samuel Trade

• The San Francisco 49ers have agreed to trade Deebo Samuel to the Washington Commanders for a fifth-round draft pick
• Washington’s Super Bowl odds and Jayden Daniels’ MVP odds both shortened with the news
• See below for the updated odds, and our best betting advice

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It didn’t take long for the NFL to grab some headlines back in the sports world. On Saturday night, the San Francisco 49ers agreed to send receiver Deebo Samuel to the Washington Commanders for a fifth-round draft pick. This deal will eventually be processed when the new league year starts on March 12.

The Commanders had a dream season under rookie pivot Jayden Daniels, advancing all the way to the NFC Championship game before bowing out to the eventual Super Bowl Champions, the Philadelphia Eagles.

Is Deebo the final piece to put Washington over the top? Let’s have a look at the updated odds for both the Commanders’ Super Bowl chances and Daniels’ odds of taking home the MVP trophy for 2025-26.

Super Bowl 60 Odds

Team	SB Odds Before Trade	SB Odds After Trade
San Francisco 49ers	+1400	+1400
Washington Commanders	+2200	+1900

Updated Super Bowl odds as of March 1 from DraftKings. Claim a DraftKings promo code when making any NFL futures bet this offseason.

When the first Super Bowl 60 odds came out following the Super Bowl, both the 49ers and Commanders had odds inside the Top 10.

While the Niners have stayed at the same +1400 odds despite losing one of their key offensive weapons, the Commanders jumped from +2200 to the current +1900 odds, and up to eighth-best odds, tied currently with the Green Bay Packers.

Does Samuel Make Washington a Super Bowl Favorite?

The brilliance of Jayden Daniels can’t be overstated, as the rookie pivot wowed throughout the season and into the playoffs, going into Tampa Bay and Detroit — home of the top-seeded Lions — and coming away with victories.

Daniels carried the roster, earning NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year honour in the process, despite a limited set of offensive weapons behind stud Terry McLaurin, who had 82 catches for 1,096 yards and a TD. The next highest receiver by yardage was Zach Ertz and 654, while Brian Robinson Jr and Austin Ekeler rushed for a combined a moderate 1,166 yards.

The Commanders have key people in Adam Peters & Anthony Lynn who know Deebo Samuel very well. Understand what went right/wrong with the 49ers & why. A healthy & motivated Deebo along with Terry McLaurin gives Washington its best WR1-WR2 combo since Pierre Garcon & DeSean Jackson.

— Al Galdi (@AlGaldi) March 2, 2025

If healthy (and engaged) Samuel could be a guy who fills in all the gaps behind McLaurin. At his best, he hauled in a career-best 77 grabs for 1,405 yards and six TD’s, while also rushing for 365 yards on a healthy 6.2 yards per tote and eight scores. That was the 2021-22 campaign, the only year he’s played a full slate.

Samuel hasn’t come remotely close to those numbers in the next three seasons. Last year, he had 51 catches, the second fewest in his career, for 671 yards, his third lowest output, and three TD’s. His running game also went dry, averaging 3.2 yards per carry.

"Dad, how good was 2021 Deebo Samuel?"
pic.twitter.com/DSOcwGUs1n

— FoN9ne (@FoN9ne) March 2, 2025

A change of scenery will help, but does a Kliff Kingsbury offense do more than a Kyle Shanahan scheme?

The truth is, so long as Daniels stays healthy, Washington should keep contender status. The addition of Samuel is more a gamble than a sure thing, but he’s also an upgrade over Noah Brown, Dyami Brown and Olamide Zaccheaus, who are all potential free agents. That it only cost them a 5th-rounder and taking on a $17.55 million salary for the 2025 season is worth a roll of the dice.

2026 NFL MVP Odds

SBD’s early NFL MVP odds had Daniels in fifth place, opening at +1000 odds. That’s jumped to +750, putting him into a virtual ties for the third best odds with a couple of football’s heavy hitters in Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes. Like their Super Bowl odds, San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy’s MVP odds stayed static at +3500.

Daniels Might Contend For NFL MVP

Just a season ago, the football world was enamoured with a second-year pivot by the name of CJ Stroud, who led the Houston Texans to the playoffs. His stock was as high as Daniels, and he was touted as a Top 5 NFL MVP candidate.

His second season wasn’t bad, as Houston did get back to the playoffs, but the Stroud looked … like a second-year QB trying to figure out how to beat defenses that suddenly had a full year of tape on him.

The Daniels hype is worthy: the guy was a wrecking ball in year one, completing 69% of his passes for 3,568 yards, 25 touchdowns and just nine interceptions. He also rushed for 891 yards on a healthy six yard average, hitting paydirt six times.

OMGGGGGGG

📺 #CLEvsWAS FOX pic.twitter.com/8RHOEseQVy

— Washington Commanders (@Commanders) October 6, 2024

Daniels also has more room to improve, as Washington averaged only 215.6 yards passing per game. The Commanders were very careful with their star player in his early weeks of development. But, with an offense that was fourth in rushing and fifth in scoring, Daniels seems to be in a good environment to continue to excel.

Washington’s defense was third against the pass and third-worst against the run, and their scoring average was right in the middle of the pack, so there’s talent on both sides of the ball to help their young QB too.

Daniels is definitely worth a sprinkle, but the real juice might be if he can bring his new receiver to new heights. Samuel is currently listed as +15000 on FanDuel for Offensive Player or the Year, and +10000 over at DraftKings.

If you believe in Daniels’ playmaking to raise Samuel’s bar, that would be a nice payout.