Khalil Mack Makes DPOY Race Tight With Donald Entering Last 2 Weeks
- Aaron Donald is the runaway favorite for Defensive Player of the Year
- While Donald has two sacks over his last three games, Khalil Mack has 4.5
- Can Mack knock Donald off of his DPOY perch? Is Mack worth betting?
For the last few weeks, there has been no debate about the NFL’s Defensive Player of the Year. It’s the Rams’ Aaron Donald.
But not so fast.
After falling off partway through the season, Chicago’s Khalil Mack is hot on Donald’s heels.
Can he catch him? Or is Donald’s lead when it comes to DPOY insurmountable?
Odds to Win 2018 NFL Defensive Player of the Year
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Aaron Donald, LAR | -400 |
| Khalil Mack, CHI | +300 |
*Odds taken 12/20
The last time we checked, Donald was a whopping -1000 favorite to take home Defensive Player of the Year. He was also showing up in the MVP odds. While Donald has slowed down, Mack has picked up the pace.
Aaron Donald should be the MVP then.
— Geoff Schwartz (@geoffschwartz) December 18, 2018
Chicago’s stud edge defender was +600 at last look, and settles in at +300. If it wasn’t for a mid-season ankle injury that cost him playing time, Mack could still be the favorite right now.
Recency bias helps Mack’s DPOY case
Diving deeper into the last three weeks of these superstars’ seasons, let’s compare Donald’s slowest point to one of Mack’s most productive.
Donald vs Mack: Weeks 13-15
| Player | Total Tackles | Sacks | Fumbles Forced/Recovered | Average PFF Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Donald, LAR | 10 | 2 | 1/0 | 83.9 |
| Khalil Mack, CHI | 14 | 4.5 | 1/0 | 82.6 |
Donald’s slowdown is curiously timed; it’s directly after the Rams’ bye. Other than the Weeks 1-3 where he didn’t record a sack, Weeks 14 and 15 are the first consecutive weeks where he hasn’t dropped the quarterback.
Mack’s slowest stretch also came after the Bears’ bye, but he had an ankle injury to thank for that.
Sacks this season:
Khalil Mack: 12.5
The Raiders: 11.0— Field Yates (@FieldYates) December 16, 2018
Mack recorded two tackles in Week 6 against Miami and one the week after against New England. Then he missed two games. Since then, he’s got five sacks in six games, totaling 7.5, adding two forced fumbles and recovering one.
Mack vs Donald in 2018
| 90.3 | PFF Rating | 95.1 |
| 42 | Total Tackles | 48 |
| 12.5 | Sacks | 16.5 |
| 6/2 | Fumbles (Forced/Recovered) | 4/2 |
| 9 | Tackles for Loss | 20 |
| 1 | Defensive TD | 0 |
While those three games explain why Mack has closed the gap, their full seasons show why it’s still an uphill climb.
What Donald is doing as a defensive tackle is unheard of.
If he finishes top five in sacks, it’s the best a pure DT has finished in the category since Geno Atkins was sixth in 2012. The last time a DT finished top five was Warren Sapp in 2000.
Aaron Donald almost killed Nick Foles pic.twitter.com/fIb6mVFHnN
— Cameron DaSilva (@camdasilva) December 17, 2018
He leads the league in QB hits, and is tied for the league-lead in tackles-for-loss, four ahead of the next DT.
Mack has had a great year in his own right. He’s four back in the sack race, and tied for tops in forced fumbles. He also had that pick-six against the Packers in Week 1.
Who wins the DPOY race?
Looking at their upcoming weeks, it seems safe that Donald maintains his lead.
His first meeting is with a Cardinals interior line that has been injury-ravaged. His matchup with the 49ers in Week 17 is tougher against guards Mike Person and Laken Tomlinson, but he has the upper hand against center Weston Richburg.
Highest number of blocks beaten on passing plays where the ball came out before the play had a chance to become pressure:
Myles Garrett: 40
Aaron Donald: 38
Cameron Jordan: 31— Sam Monson (@PFF_Sam) December 18, 2018
Mack meanwhile, does most of his damage off of the right side. He faces San Francisco’s Mike McGlinchey and Minnesota’s Rashod Hill. Neither tackle cracks Pro Football Focus’s top 45.
No surprise here, Aaron Donald is still the highest graded player on the defensive interior. pic.twitter.com/xI2eOBjfct
— PFF (@PFF) December 14, 2018
Those final two games give Mack a chance to catch some of Donald’s numbers, but it’s too little too late. Donald has had an all-time season for an interior defender.
The DPOY award is deservedly his.
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
