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Expert NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 5

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in NFL Football

Updated Oct 8, 2022 · 12:02 PM PDT

expert NFL picks against the spread
Oct 2, 2022; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Seattle Seahawks running back Rashaad Penny (20) celebrates a touchdown with teammates during the fourth quarter against the Detroit Lions at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports
  • Our NFL experts predict their top picks against the spread for NFL Week 5
  • This week’s top picks come from all over the Week 5 board with nine different teams being chosen
  • Get our expert NFL picks against the spread for Week 5 below

The NFL season rolls into Week 5 this weekend and this year, perhaps more than ever, there is an abundance of parity and close scores. In fact, almost 60 percent of games after week four have been decided by one score or less. Looking ahead to Week 5, we’re making our top expert NFL picks against the spread to give you the best betting edge this weekend.

Last week was neither here nor there in our NFL ATS picks and with so many tight spreads around the field goal mark, we “pushed” our way to a 2-3-3 record. However, that still leaves our expert NFL picks against the spread at 21-16-3 for the year.

Each week we’ll pick our top expert NFL picks against the spread and keep track of our records throughout the season. Read on for this week’s top NFL ATS picks.

Expert NFL Picks Against the Spread Week 5

Matt McEwan Ryan Metivier Zach Reger Bob Duff
Cowboys (+5.5) Seahawks (+5.5) Patriots (-3.5) Packers (-7.5)
Eagles (-5.5) Cowboys (+5.5) Browns (+2.5) Titans (-2.5)
Jaguars (-7) Jaguars (-7) Titans 1H (-0.5) Bengals (+3.5)
3-3 Season Record 6-5-1 Season Record 6-5-1 Season Record 6-3-1 Season Record

Odds as of October 7. Check out this Barstool Sportsbook promo code to bet on NFL Week 5

It’s a full slate of 12 top NFL ATS picks this weekend with both the Cowboys and Jaguars getting two picks each.

 

 

Matt McEwan

  • Cowboys +5.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook

The Rams cannot protect Matthew Stafford. Even on the few occasions where they have, the result still hasn’t been consistently positive. The Cowboys’ pass-rush is going to have a field day on Sunday.

  • Eagles -5.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook

I do not believe the Eagles are as good as their 4-0 record might suggest. But I also don’t think the Cardinals are as competent as their 2-2 record might suggest. Arizona’s offense is an absolute mess and they have next to no pass-rush whatsoever. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles offense will continue to roll.

  • Jaguars -7 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Jacksonville literally fumbled away their game against the Eagles last week, but I’ve consistently seen a good football team on both sides of the ball when they aren’t playing in the slop. Thankfully, there’s only a 2% chance of rain in Jacksonville this Sunday. Trevor Lawrence will get back in his groove and James Robinson will run wild on this Texans’ defense.

Ryan Metivier

  • Seahawks (+5.5) at DraftKings Sportsbook

The Saints are coming off a last-play-losing kick in London last weekend, losing 28-25 to the Vikings. They, as well as the Vikes, have elected to not take a bye week after the London game and are back in action in Week 5. That’s rare for teams to do and if it’s positive or negative is tough to tell. But regardless of the travel/rest factor, the Saints aren’t a team to be backing to win by margin. They’re 1-3 and that one win was by one point, 27-26 over the Falcons in Week 1.

New Orleans could also be without a slew of key players with all of Jameis Winston, Michale Thomas, Jarvis Landry and Andrus Peat questionable.

Meanwhile, the Seahawks may have the 29th-ranked defense, but their offense under Geno Smith ranks 11th in YPG. Three of their four games have been decided by four or fewer points. Oh, and there is also the fact that playing in the 1:00 pm EST timeslot has been money for Seahawks’ bettors, where they are 10-4-1 ATS and 14-1 SU in their past 15 early kick-offs. Win or lose, they’ll do enough to keep this close.

Spirits are high in Dallas as the Cowboys are 3-1 and have won all three games with backup Cooper Rush under center, taking over from the injured Dak Prescott. They’ve won three in a row, welcomed back WR Michael Gallup from injury last week and have been playing stifling defense, ranking seventh in yards allowed per game. The Dallas defense has forced four interceptions and sacked opposing quarterbacks 15 times. Those 15 sacks rank only behind the Eagles’ 16.

The Rams are at home, are the Super Bowl champions and still have their starting QB, but those are about the only reasons they are favored here. In reality, they haven’t looked any better than Dallas, and in some ways have looked worse. They’re 2-2 and needed to hang on 31-27 against Atlanta. The Rams struggled to get by Arizona 20-12, with Matthew Stafford throwing zero touchdowns to get those wins.

Last week, LA got stomped 24-9 in San Fran on MNF, which also means they’ll be playing on a short week. LA’s offense is actually ranked below Dallas, ranking 28th compared to 26th entering Week 5. Stafford has already thrown six INTs and his options to stretch the field are limited. Basically the offense runs through Cooper Kupp and Tyler Higbee who account for roughly 40-percent an 25-percent of all Rams’ receptions. Neither of them are traditionally deep threats. Much like our NFL ATS pick in the game prior, perhaps the Rams win, but I don’t have confidence that it is by a large margin.

Houston is 0-3-1 on the year. They just lost at home last week by ten. On the road so far they lost by seven points (16-9 at Denver) and three points (23-20 at Chicago). The Broncos and Bears rank 31st and 30th respectively in points per game at 15 and 16.

Now they’ll go to Jacksonville where the Jaguars are sixth in PPG scoring 26.3 PPG. In Jacksonville’s one home game this season they stomped Indy 24-0. Then they went to LA and also stomped the Charhers 38-10. Last week they were up 14-0 over the Eagles before giving the game away in Philly. Houston isn’t Philly and the Texans and QB Davis Mills on the road are awful. Mills is 0-2 on the road this year and 1-5 on the road last season.

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Zach Reger

  • Patriots (-3.5) at FanDuel Sportsbook

It’s Zappe time. Bailey Zappe came into the game last week and almost helped the Pats upset Green Bay on the road. No matter who starts at quarterback for New England, they should have a heyday against this Detroit defense. The Patriots are no offensive juggernauts, but they have two talented runningbacks in Damien Harris and Rhomndre Stevenson, and they have a capable quarterback in rookie Bailey Zappe. That is enough to move the ball against the Lions.

The Lions have given up the third most total yards on the ground and have given up the most yards per carry at 5.6. That fits into what Bill Belichick and this New England offense want to do. Even though Dan Campbell is everyone’s favorite coach at the moment, I put more trust in Belicheck to get the job done on the road. Plus, only 30% of the bets are on the Patriots to cover in NFL public betting trends, while 74% of the handle is on New England. It is always a nice bonus to be on the sharp side.

  • Browns (+2.5) at FanDuel Sportsbook

A pass-heavy team is traveling from the West Coast to Cleveland, Ohio to face the Browns. This is a spot where I love the Browns to cover. Cleveland is in a get-right spot after falling to the Falcons last Sunday. Despite the loss, they still put up over 400 yards of offense. They will get back to the ground and pound at home against a Chargers defense that currently allows the second-highest yards per carry (5.4).

To make things even better for the Browns, Myles Garrett is expected to play. With Rashawn Slater out for the Chargers, Garrett could be in for a big day in his first game back. I believe Cleveland can keep this game close and potentially win outright. Browns bettors can look forward to legal Ohio online sports betting in the year with a launch expected for January 1, 2023.

  • Titans 1H (-0.5) at FanDuel Sportsbook. 

In the last two games the Titans have played, they have scored a combined 48 points in the first half and a combined zero points in the second. That NFL team trend goes back all the way to the beginning of the season. Through their four games this season, the Titans have outscored their opponents in the first half 68-37. In the second half, however, they have been outscored 64-7. The Titans have not scored in the second half in three straight games, yet they have held on to win two games. I believe the Titans can win against the Commanders on Sunday, but I am going to take the safer option and bet on their first-half spread instead of their full-game spread for one of my expert NFL picks against the spread.

The Titans have started quickly in their games as they have scored on all four of their opening drives. The Commanders’ defense has struggled mightily this season both on the ground and through the air. In comes Derrick Henry who just ran for over five yards per carry against a Colts rush defense that was pretty good until last week.

Their secondary has struggled more, so that opens up the play action, which is what Ryan Tannehill has the most success with. On the other side of the ball, the Commanders will be without three starters on the offensive line, which is not a great sign for Carson Wentz. Give me the Titans to be leading at halftime.

 

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