Mahomes is 2018 NFL MVP Favorite; Chiefs are AFC’s Super Bowl 53 Favorite
- Chiefs poised to open on 4-0 run for second straight year
- Mahomes’ record-setting start vaults him to top of NFL MVP odds
- Chiefs’ fast start sees them surpass the Patriots as the AFC’s Super Bowl 53 favorite
For a second straight year, the Kansas City Chiefs are poised to open their NFL schedule on a 4-0 run, as they prepare to take on the Denver Broncos on Monday Night Football as 4.5-point road favorites.
With second-year quarterback Patrick Mahomes at the helm, the Chiefs offense has been nearly unstoppable in the early going, generating an eye-popping 39.3 points per game in a trio of impressive victories.
In addition to vaulting them to the early lead atop the AFC West standings, the Chiefs’ hot start has also rocketed them to the top of the Super Bowl odds, where they lead all AFC teams and trail only the Los Angeles Rams with average odds of +810.
Average Odds to Win Super Bowl 53
The Chiefs’ early success is even more impressive when considering their opponents.
The Los Angeles Chargers opened the season as narrow favorites to claim the AFC West divisional crown, but were dominated in a 38-28 season-opening loss to Kansas City as 3-point home chalk.
The defending AFC North champion Pittsburgh Steelers fared no better, surrendering the second-highest point total in franchise history in a 42-37 loss to the Chiefs as 4-point home favorites in Week 2.
Odds to Win Super Bowl 53
| Team | Odds to Win Super Bowl 53 |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | +325 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +800 |
| New England Patriots | +1100 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +1200 |
*Follow the link in the table to see odds for all 32 teams
Mahomes Sparks Chiefs Hot Start
Those searching for the secret to Kansas City’s success need look no further than Mahomes. Drafted 10th-overall in the 2017 NFL Draft, Mahomes has been nothing short of spectacular in his debut as the Chiefs starting quarterback.
The former Texas Tech Red Raiders star has connected on an NFL-record 13 touchdown passes on just 62 pass completions through Week 3, and has followed his team’s climb up the odds, emerging as the favorite in 2018 NFL MVP odds.
Average Odds to Win 2018 NFL MVP
But can the Chiefs maintain such a torrid pace over the course of a long 16-game NFL season?
2017 Collapse Fresh in the Minds of Chiefs Kingdom
With Alex Smith under center, the Chiefs embarked on an equally hot start last season, storming to 5-0 out of the gate.
However, the Kansas City offense quickly fizzled, scoring 17 or fewer points on four occasions during a midseason 1-6 swoon that threatened to bounce the squad from playoff contention, and eventually cost Smith his job.
Kansas City took additional steps in the offseason to provide Mahomes with extra offensive weapons after being anointed as the team’s starter.
The addition of Sammy Watkins complements a vaunted receiving corps led by receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce, while linebacker Anthony Hitchens has surpassed expectations with a team-leading 32 tackles in his first three weeks as a Chief.
The Chiefs lead the NFL in point production, but also sit near the bottom of the league with 30.7 points per game allowed
However, defense remains a concern in Kansas City. While the Chiefs lead the NFL in point production, they also sit near the bottom of the league with 30.7 points per game allowed to date.
Things get no easier for the Chiefs following their prime time date in Denver on Monday night. Matchups with the stingy Jacksonville Jaguars and Patriots await in Weeks 5 and 6, while a Week 11 clash with the high-powered Rams will likely be billed as a potential preview of Super Bowl 53.
Gurley Providing Better Value in MVP Odds
Once again, running back Todd Gurley has proved to be an anchor of the Rams offense. The 2017 NFL rushing touchdowns leader has continued to shine, running for 255 yards and four scores through three outings, and maintains excellent value on the NFL MVP odds at an attractive +750.
Odds to Win the 2018 Regular Season MVP Award
| Player | Position | Team | Odds to Win 2018 NFL MVP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | KC | +300 |
| Aaron Rodgers | QB | GB | +500 |
| Drew Brees | QB | NO | +650 |
| Todd Gurley | RB | LAR | +750 |
| Tom Brady | QB | NE | +1200 |
*Follow the link in the table to see odds for all contenders
While the Chiefs and Rams, and their budding stars, have captured the imagination of football fans and oddsmakers, perennial favorites cannot be ignored.
Don’t Sleep on Patriots, Packers in Super Bowl Betting
A surprising 1-2 start has bounced the New England Patriots from their long-established perch atop the Super Bowl odds, dumping them to a relatively distant +1100, while quarterback Tom Brady has slipped to a lengthy +1200 bet to repeat as NFL MVP.
A middling 1-1-1 start has fueled the Green Bay Packers’ fall to +2000 on the Super Bowl odds, while injury concerns have contributed to preseason MVP betting favorite Aaron Rodgers slipping back of Mahomes to +500.
It is always unwise to underestimate Brady and the Patriots. However, what appeared to be a favorable early-season schedule may now present them with serious challenges. In addition to a Week 4 clash with the undefeated Miami Dolphins, and a Week 6 meeting with the Chiefs, upcoming matchups with the improved Chicago Bears and the Packers could set the tone for the rest of the season.
As for the Packers, their collapse in the wake of a collarbone injury that sidelined Rodgers for nine games remains fresh in the minds of loyal sports bettors. However, if Rodgers can remain healthy, ample time remains for Green Bay to salvage its season and Super Bowl aspirations.
Daniel has been writing about sports and sports betting for over 23 years. The seasoned pro has contributed to the likes of Sports Illustrated, Sportsnet, NESN, Bleacher Report, OddsShark, the Globe and Mail, and The Nation magazine.
