- Odds have been released for who will win first between the New York Giants and New York Jets
- The Jets need to win this week, or else the Giants have a far more favorable schedule going forward
- Read on for analysis and the pick below
For those wondering how much worse 2020 can get, consider rooting for either New York professional football team.
Few had big aspirations for the Giants or Jets heading into this season, but three games into their respective campaigns, the question has become how low can these teams go? Both started with season total win projections set at 6.5 games, but that’s since slid for both after 0-3 starts. The Giants’ updated win total is now 4.5 and the Jets’ has dipped to 3.5.
Perhaps the more relevant question for bettors in the meantime is which team will pick up a win first?
Odds to Win First in 2020 Season: Jets vs Giants
|New York Jets||-300|
|New York Giants||+200|
Odds as of Sep. 30th.
The unpredictability of this season has affected a number of teams that had high hopes heading into it, but the latest NFL win totals shows both New York sides now have the lowest predicted win totals in the league.
Critical Personnel Problems For Both
Jets head coach Adam Gase wasn’t exactly the most popular pick to lead the team when he was hired ahead of last season. Now, after popular defensive back Jamal Adams was dealt to Seattle, and discussion about a rift between he and running back Le’Veon Bell, there are questions about how receptive the locker room is to him. After finishing last season 7-9, the voices wondering how much time Gase has left with the team are growing louder.
Should the Jets move to fire Gase, the practical interim replacement would be defensive coordinator Gregg Williams. Williams was 17-31 as head coach of the Buffalo Bills from 2001-2003, but won five of his eight games as interim head coach for the Cleveland Browns in 2018 after the team fired Hue Jackson. The Jets’ defense hasn’t been as terrible as its offense, but given the relative lack of playmakers on either side of the ball, it’s difficult to say that a coaching switch would yield a significant change in fortune.
Joe Judge says the Giants will channel the blue-collar mentality of New York to bounce back:
"I can assure you, I take a great deal of pride and I put a lot personally into this to make sure that the product they see on the field they can be proud of" pic.twitter.com/qKnO6G8x0Y
— Giants Videos (@SNYGiants) September 27, 2020
The Giants have suffered from key vacancies in their lineup more than anything else. Offensive tackle Nate Solder opted-out of this season due to COVID-19 concerns. The Giants are tied for sixth-most sacks allowed this season with nine, and have had the poorest rush efficiency of any team in the league. Second-year quarterback Daniel Jones has done his best under the circumstances, but he is coming off of his worst game of the season against San Francisco — where the Giants also lost star running back Saquon Barkley for the season with a torn ACL.
Wide receiver Golden Tate has been hampered with a hamstring injury since the start of the season and the team placed fellow pass-catcher Sterling Shepard on injured reserve this week.
Who Has The Best Chance For Their First Win?
If the Jets find a way to lose against a broken Denver Broncos team at home, the Giants have the better opportunity, thanks to the overall weakness of the NFC East.
Despite coming into the game against the Jets favored by a point, the Broncos are now on their third starting quarterback this season in Brett Rypien. The undrafted second-year QB finished the game against Tampa Bay last week and completed eight consecutive passes before throwing an interception on Denver’s final drive of the game. Broncos head coach Vic Fangio suggested this week that he may look to play both Rypien and last week’s starter, Jeff Driskel, in the game.
The key matchup for the Jets will be their rush defense against what will almost certainly be the Broncos’ commitment to run the ball with Melvin Gordon III. Denver running back Phillip Lindsay has been hobbled with a foot injury, and he’s not likely to have a major impact on a short week of preparation. The Jets are not defending the run as well as they did last season, but Denver isn’t likely to get very exotic on offense in this one. First-round pick Jerry Jeudy is also playing through a rib injury that has kept him limited in practice all week, so whatever upside Denver has in the passing game looks to be fairly limited.
Meanwhile, the Giants are considerable underdogs on the road when they take on a Los Angeles Rams team looking to get back in the win column following a sour loss to Buffalo last weekend. Jones hasn’t been playing with a full deck on offense the past few weeks, but against Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey and the rest of the Rams’ defense, this isn’t the matchup that he’s likely to get things heading back in the right direction.
Sam Darnold on his performance this season:
"I'm not playing consistently enough to play well in this league" pic.twitter.com/xbSH7JTgKN
— Jets Videos (@snyjets) September 27, 2020
Prior to last week, Jets quarterback Sam Darnold had been doing a good job of mixing up his throws and keeping his turnovers down, but that fell apart against the Colts when he threw three interceptions in a 36-7 loss. This week, he moves on to a Broncos defense that has been decimated with injuries in the secondary and has had a toothless pass rush that’s sorely missing defensive end Von Miller. Denver has been particularly poor in the longer downs-and-distances that Darnold has found success with this season, and should wide receiver Jamison Crowder be able to go after missing last week with a hamstring injury, the Jets are that much more of an attractive pick to win.
Projected Lines: Next Six Weeks
|NYJ Week 4 Spread||NYG Week 4 Spread|
|vs DEN: +1||@ LAR: +13|
|NYJ Projected Spreads||NYG Projected Spreads|
|Week 5 vs ARI: +6.5||Week 5 @ DAL: +7.5|
|Week 6 @ LAC: +4.5||Week 6 vs WAS: +1|
|Week 7 vs BUF: +7.5||Week 7 @ PHI: +3.5|
|Week 8 @ KC: +14.5||Week 8 vs TB: +7|
|Week 9 vs NE: +6.5||Week 9 @ WAS: +3|
The Jets seem like a team in disarray and are even more beat up than the Giants. However, the Broncos are worse off than both and the G-Men are among the least likely teams to win this week. The Jets know that this is their best shot to get a win for the foreseeable future, but are going to have to play mistake-free football. The best strategy here is to monitor the status of Crowder, and if he suits up on Thursday night, take the Jets. If possible, parlay this bet with the moneyline against the Broncos to maximize the value and hope that Darnold looks more like the player from Weeks 1 and 2 than the one in last week’s loss.
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