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Lightning vs Avalanche Game 1 Odds & Picks

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NHL Hockey

Jun 13, 2022 · 4:12 PM PDT

Lightning vs Avalanche Game 1 Odds
Feb 10, 2022; Denver, Colorado, USA; Colorado Avalanche left wing Gabriel Landeskog (92) sprays Tampa Bay Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy (88) in the second period at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Colorado Avalanche are -160 home favorites to beat the Tampa Bay Lightning in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup final on Wednesday, June 15
  • Colorado is 3-0 straight up at home in Game 1 of playoff series this spring
  • Below, see the Lightning vs Avalanche odds and picks for Game 1

There’s a symmetry at work as the Stanley Cup final between the Colorado Avalanche and Tampa Bay Lightning prepares to get underway.

In the spring of 2015, an upstart group of Tampa Bay Lightning, for whom great things were projected, arrived at the Stanley Cup final to face a Chicago Blackhawks team seeking its third Stanley Cup since 2010. Chicago won the series in six games,

This spring, it’s the Lightning seeking their third Stanley Cup since 2020. And it’s the Avs who are viewed as the team projected to be headed toward greatness. The difference this time around is that it’s the newbies that the oddsmakers are forecasting for success in the NHL betting lines. Colorado is the favorite in the Stanley Cup odds. The Avalanche are also the -160 chalk to emerge victorious in Game 1.

Lightning vs Avalanche Odds Game 1

Team Puck Line Total Moneyline
Tampa Bay Lightning +1.5 (-190) O 6 (-110) +140
Colorado Avalanche -1.5 (+160) U 6 (-110) -160

Odds as of June 13th at Caesars Sportsbook. See available Caesars promo codes

 

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The puck is slated to drop for Game 1 at 8:00 pm ET at Ball Arena on Wednesday, June 15. The broadcast is being provided by ABC in the US and by CBC in Canada. Tampa Bay is 1-2 straight up on the road in Game 1 in these playoffs.

At a betting line of -160, the Avs are given an implied probability of victory of 61.54%. A $10 wager on Colorado would return a payout of $16.30.

NHL betting trends show the public to be of different minds. In spread betting,  84% of the bets placed are on the Lightning at +1.5. Moneyline players are more bullish on the Avs. Those splits show 60% of the moneyline bets are on the Avalanche at -160 odds. Public bettors are also anticipating goals. There is 86% of the public bets on the Over (6).

Tampa Bay vs Colorado Recent Results

Date Home-Away Moneyline Puck Line Over/Under
3/21/2022 Tampa Bay 7 Colorado 1 TB TB Over
10/19/2019 Tampa Bay 2 Colorado 6 COL COL Over
2/17/2020 Colorado 3 Tampa Bay 4 (OT) TB TB Over
10/23/2021 Tampa Bay 3 Colorado 4 (SO) COL COL Over
2/10/2022 Colorado 3 Tampa Bay 2 COL TB Under

Colorado enters the final series riding a five-game win streak. Tampa Bay has won four in a row.

Avalanche defenseman Cale Makar, favored in the Norris Trophy odds, will be playing his 50th Stanley Cup game. He’s collected 53 points so far. In NHL playoff history, Bobby Orr (66) and Brian Leetch (65) are the only defensemen with more points through their first 50 NHL games.

Makar (1.08) is among five players in this series averaging more than a point per game during the Stanley Cup careers. The others are Colorado’s Nathan MacKinnon (1.36) and Mikko Rantanen (1.21) and Tampa Bay’s Nikita Kucherov (1.15) and Brayden Point (1.04).

With 23 points, Kucherov, a past Hart Trophy winner, is seeking to join Wayne Gretzky (1983-85), Mike Bossy (1981-83) and Bryan Trottier (1980-82) as the only NHLers with 25+ points in three successive playoff years.

Tampa Bay vs Colorado Injury Report

Lightning forward Point has been out since round one with a leg injury. Bolts coach Jon Cooper is expecting Point to play in this series but probably not in Game 1. Defenseman Brent Seabrook (shoulder) is out.

The Avalanche are missing defenseman Samuel Girard (broken sternum). Center Nazem Kadri (finger surgery) and winger Andrew Cogliano (hand surgery) skated Sunday and haven’t been ruled out for Game 1. Defenseman Ryan Murray (broken hand) is out.

Vasilevskiy Is Money When It Counts

In his last 11 games facing elimination, Lightning netminder Andrei Vasilevskiy is 11-0. He’s posted six shutouts over that span and a save percentage in excess of .980.

However, he’s 1-3-1 in five games against Colorado. Vasilevskiy is showing a 3.41 goals-against average and .877 save percentage in those games.

Lightning vs Avalanche Projected Starting Goalies

Team Goalie Record SV% GAA
Lightning Andrei Vasilevskiy 4-0 .917 2.48
Avalanche Darcy Kuemper 8-4 .916 3.19

Even though backup Pavel Francouz is unbeaten in two stints stepping in for the injured Darcy Kuemper during postseason play, now that Kuemper is again healthy, Avs coach Jared Bednar is insisting he’s again his goalie.

In seven games against Tampa Bay, Kuemper is 4-2 with a 2.33 GAA and .920 save percentage.

Lightning vs Avalanche Game 1 Prediction

Colorado has been money in the playoffs when it comes to Game 1. The Avs have opened all three previous rounds on home ice. They are 3-0 SU and 2-1 against the puckline. Colorado has outscored the opposition 18-11 in Game 1.

On the other hand, Tampa Bay hasn’t enjoyed the Game 1 experience for the most part. The Lightning lost two of three Game 1 contests so far. In their two setbacks, the Bolts were outscored 11-2.

 Pick: Colorado Avalanche ML (-160) 

 

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