Kamala Harris’ Election Odds Rise After Trump’s Racial Identity Remarks

• Kamala Harris is gaining traction in the 2024 US Election odds
• Harris was a victim of a perceived racial identity attack by Trump
• See below for the latest election odds and analysis on the Presidential race

Kamala Harris continues to gain traction in the 2024 Election odds, this time following a perceived racial identity attack from Donald Trump at a convention in Chicago.

Harris is now listed at +11- to win the election at popular betting site Bet365, which is nearly a 50% chance. Meanwhile, New Zealand-based online prediction market PredictIt actually shows Harris with better odds now.

Here is a rundown of the latest Trump controversy and 2024 Election odds aftermath.

US Presidential Election Odds 2024

In the updated US Election odds for 2024, Kamala Harris has improved to +110, which is a 47.6% implied win probability.

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Trump’s Attack at Chicago Convention

On Wednesday, former President Donald Trump questioned Vice President Kamala Harris’s racial identity while speaking at the National Association of Black Journalists convention in Chicago. Trump claimed that Harris emphasized her Indian heritage until recently when she “became a Black person.”

Harris, who is of Indian and Jamaican descent, has reportedly long identified as both Black and South Asian throughout her career. She responded to Trump’s comments, calling them “the same old show” of “divisiveness and disrespect.”

Former President Trump on Vice President Kamala Harris: "She was Indian all the way and then all of a sudden she made a turn and she went, she became a Black person. I think somebody should look into that." pic.twitter.com/RpEuRq6p5m

— CSPAN (@cspan) July 31, 2024

“The American people deserve better,” Harris said of Trump’s remarks. “We deserve a leader who understands that our differences do not divide us – they are an essential source of our strength.”

Trump’s remarks drew criticism and gasps from the mostly Black audience of journalists. Some called the comments insulting and divisive. The White House press secretary condemned the statements, saying no one has the right to tell someone how to identify.

This incident continues a pattern of Trump attacking opponents based on race, including falsely claiming President Obama was not born in the US and saying GOP rival Nikki Haley could not be president because her parents immigrated from India.

Kamala Harris’ Improved Election Odds

While most Republicans seemingly were amused with Trump’s interview in Chicago, oddsmakers believe Harris is the one who will benefit in the polls. Harris’ odds to win the 2024 election have been improving following Trump’s Chicago convention.

For the first time since launching her presidential campaign, betting odds on PredictIt showed Harris leading Trump on Wednesday afternoon.

BREAKING: Kamala Harris is now the favorite to win the presidency in 2024 according to Predictit betting odds:

Just over a week ago she was at 32% and Trump was at 62%

This has been there greatest comeback I have ever seen. pic.twitter.com/4k292Lung1

— Brian Krassenstein (@krassenstein) August 1, 2024

However, it’s worth noting that at American sportsbooks such as BetMGM and Bet365, Trump is still the notable favorite over Harris. But our election tracker doesn’t hide that his lead has shrunk significantly since Harris became the presumptive Democratic nominee.

A Morning Consult poll conducted after Biden withdrew found Trump leading Harris by just 2%, compared to a 4% lead over Biden in their prior poll. Furthermore, several state polls have Harris tied or ahead of Trump in crucial battlegrounds like Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, and Arizona.

Michigan, in particular, is a crucial swing state. A Morning Consult poll conducted from July 24 to July 28 found Harris leading Trump 53% to 42% in the Great Lake State.

Verdict on Latest Election Odds 2024

What does Harris’s improvement in the US Election odds 2024 actually mean? Well, firstly, it’s important to note that betting odds do not always predict the ultimate winner, especially this far before Election Day.

Polls can vary significantly based on methodology and are a snapshot in time rather than a definite forecast. Trump overcame betting odds and most polls to defeat Hillary Clinton in 2016, while in 2020, Biden remained the betting favorite over Trump and went on to win.

Hey guys, remember when Hillary Clinton beat Trump in 2016? 🙃 pic.twitter.com/XKrTd24GOG

— Rasputin Polls (@AlvinIpswitch) July 31, 2024

We do know that Harris is 20 years younger than Trump, and her relative youth is an asset. She also embodies diversity in an increasingly multicultural America.

However, the Democrats are trying to avoid the mistakes of 1968 when Johnson’s withdrawal led to party disunity and social unrest.

This will be a very close race, and predicting the winner at this point is fool’s gold. However, if we had to place a wager, we’d lean toward Harris due to her plus-money value and growing momentum.

It’s intriguing that a veteran forecaster who has correctly predicted every presidential winner for the past 40 years is projecting a Harris win. However, this is an outlier to many models that are predicting a close Trump victory.