Trump Favored to Win 2020 Election for the First Time Since June 1st
- At average odds of -117, Donald Trump has reclaimed the favorite’s role in the 2020 US Presidential election
- Democratic challenger Joe Biden faded to a betting line of -106
- It’s the first time since June 1 that incumbent Trump has been the chalk
The Trump train appears to be back on track toward victory in the 2020 US Presidential election. The latest betting odds on who will win the right to serve the next term in the White House show Donald Trump at average odds of -117.
Democratic challenger Joe Biden has slumped to -106. This marks the first time since June 1 that online betting sites have shown Trump to be the favorite to win reelection to the Oval Office.
Bet365 is calling it a dead heat. The sportsbook is offering a -110 betting line on both Biden and Trump in the Presidential election odds.
2020 US Presidential Election Odds
| Candidate | Odds at Bet365 |
|---|---|
| Donald Trump | -110 |
| Joe Biden | -110 |
| Kamala Harris | +11000 |
Odds as of Aug. 31st
Americans are slated to go to the polls to elect a new President on Nov. 3.
Odds Behavior
Just seven days ago, Trump was at a betting line of +104. Biden was the solid -136 chalk.
Within four days, Biden’s advantage shortened to -115 vs -110. In just a week’s time, Trump has surged ahead.
Donald Trump just got the biggest betting odds convention bounce in history, and the convention just ended last night.
That follows the net 0 polling bounce for Joe Biden, which is the weakest for a Democratic convention since 1972.
I'm starting to get a whiff of 1988.
— Peoples_Pundit (@Peoples_Pundit) August 28, 2020
One European-based sportsbook reported that bets on Trump following last week’s Republican National Convention were among the largest action it had ever taken on a candidate post-convention.
Biden remains the betting choice in some key swing states. He’s a -125 favorite in Florida, the -250 choice in Michigan, and the -162 chalk in Wisconsin.
However, some slippage is evident elsewhere. Trump has reclaimed the lead in the odds to win Arizona and North Carolina. In both states, the Republican candidate holds a -125 to -112 edge.
Polls Tell Different Story
Those aforementioned polls still suggest a Biden victory in November. Gallup still shows Trump with an approval rating of just 40%. Only two sitting Presidents drew a less favorable approval rating during their fourth year in office than Trump.
Jimmy Carter was at 32% in 1980. George HW Bush checked in at 36% in 1992. Both incumbents lost their reelection bids.
Betting odds are now virtually tied for the 2020 presidential election.
• Biden: 50.6%
• Trump: 49.1%Biden was leading 61-37 just one month ago.
👉🏻 https://t.co/ad6tOK1BHj pic.twitter.com/fYdjHK9iRi
— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) August 30, 2020
The latest poll from Emerson College, though, showed that Trump is chipping away at Biden’s advantage. Trump has narrowed Biden’s lead to a two-point margin (49% to 47%). In July, former Vice-President Biden held a four-point edge over President Trump at 50% to 46%.
It’s easy to understand why Trump is so determined to disrupt the mail service leading up to the election. Polling numbers show that, among voters who indicate they intend to cast their ballot via mail, Biden owns a wide 67% to 28% gulf.
Spinning Reality
Listening to the Trump campaign talk, or reading Trump’s tweets, it’s easy to wonder whether they understand that their guy is the one in charge at the moment.
Protests grew more violent in Portland, Oregon. Tensions ramped up in Kenosha, Wisconsin, where African-American Jacob Blake was shot seven times by police last week.
"The more chaos and anarchy and vandalism and violence reigns, the better it is for the very clear choice on who's best on public safety and law and order" — Kellyanne Conway makes a case that the killings of peaceful protesters will benefit Trump politically pic.twitter.com/ClJ6ArrbkE
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) August 27, 2020
Trump and his administration blamed all of this on Biden. The bizarre element in this claim is that there seems to be a constituency of Americans who are buying this fractured logic.
Biden responded forcefully against Trump’s rhetoric on Monday and needs to continue to do so if he wants to reclaim his previous edge in this race.
Joe Biden forcefully pushed back against President Trump's campaign message that voters wouldn't be safe under a Biden administration.
"He can't stop the violence, because for years he's fomented it," he said Monday. pic.twitter.com/MMlTDATxu9
— NPR (@NPR) August 31, 2020
Biden’s best strategy is to keep reinforcing that this is Trump’s America. The poor handling of the pandemic, the civil unrest, the tanking economy, the increased violence are all happening on Trump’s watch.
Trump sowed the seeds of division, hatred, and fear to win a mandate in 2016. He’s going back to that well again.
The latest returns show that it’s working again.
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
