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MLS Predictions, Odds: Seattle vs LAFC, Atlanta vs Portland & More MLS Week 4 Picks

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in Soccer News

Updated Mar 17, 2023 · 2:31 PM PDT

Seattle Sounders forward Heber (19) celebrates after scoring a goal against the Real Salt Lake
Mar 4, 2023; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Sounders forward Heber (19) celebrates after scoring a goal against the Real Salt Lake at Lumen Field. Seattle defeated Real Salt Lake 2-0. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports
  • MLS Week 4 serves up a huge card of matches on Saturday, March 18, 2023
  • We have our top Seattle vs LAFC picks, St Louis vs San Jose picks and more MLS best bets
  • See all of the MLS odds plus our top MLS predictions for Week 4 here

On Saturday, 28 of 29 teams take to the pitch for a massive card of MLS action headlined by the first match of the day between two top teams in the Seattle Sounders and LAFC. We’re previewing this and more from the MLS odds for our top MLS predictions for Week 4 below.

Read on for the MLS picks for Week 4 this weekend below. For sports bettors in Ohio and Massachusetts, this year brings an opportunity to bet on your local teams. Legalized Ohio sports betting launched earlier this year and as recently as March 10, Massachusetts sports betting launched in the Commonwealth creating more betting opportunities for fans of the Columbus Crew, FC Cincinnati and New England Revolution.

On Saturday las tweek, our MLS picks went 2-1, meanwhile, New England looked awful on Sunday night getting thrashed 4-0, losing our ‘both teams to score’ bet. That was a 2-2 week, losing a little juice and leaving us at 5-5, -0.65 units for the season.

MLS Odds Week 4

Matchup Home Draw Away
Seattle Sounders vs LAFC +120 +250 +200
Orlando City SC vs Charlotte FC +105 +240 +245
NYCFC vs DC United -165 +310 +380
CF Montreal vs Philadelphia Union +150 +235 +165
New York Red Bulls vs Columbus Crew -125 +245 +340
Toronto FC vs Inter Miami CF -105 +260 +255
Atlanta United vs Portland Timbers -175 +320 +400
New England Revolution vs Nashville SC +130 +220 +205
Chicago Fire vs FC Cincinnati +150 +235 +165
FC Dallas vs Sporting Kansas City -110 +255 +270
Houston Dynamo vs Austin FC +135 +240 +180
St Louis City SC vs San Jose Earthquakes -115 +265 +280
Colorado Rapids vs Minnesota United +110 +235 +235
LA Galaxy vs Vancouver Whitecaps -155 +300 +350

The MLS odds for Week 4 list Atlanta United, NYCFC and the LA Galaxy as heavy home favorites. At +400 odds the Portland Timbers are the biggest underdogs this weekend. Oddsmakers are split on the New England vs Nashville SC game as the MLS picks have that match with odds of +220 for the draw, the lowest draw odds available. Odds from March 17 at DraftKings Sportsbook.


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MLS Predictions Week 4

For a league that is usually rife with scoring, Week 3 was an Under bettors dream as bets on Under 2.5 goals would have gone 10-4. There were four 1-1 draws, a 0-0 and four 1-0 wins. That’s not normal for MLS play, but is more likely in the early stages of the season. We’re starting off with one match we see following that Under trend, but then moving onto some matches where we could see goals in our MLS picks.

Keep in mind when making your MLS predictions that each of LAFC, Philadelphia, Orlando, Austin and Vancouver are all coming off CONCACAF Champions League (CCL) matches during the midweek.

Colorado Rapids vs Minnesota United Prediction

There aren’t a lot of Unders in this matchup in recent years. Last season the scores were 4-3, 2-1 (USOC), and 3-1. The Over is 8-1 in the past nine.

But that trend could reverse this week.

There are just two goals combined between these teams in five games this season. Both have come from Minnesota (1-0 and 1-1 scores). Colorado is one of three teams that have yet to score (SKC, MTL) in 4-0, 0-0 and 1-0 results. That also means that between these teams only six goals have been conceded and four of them came in Week 1 in Colorado’s 4-0 road loss to Seattle.

The Loons have created just 2.0 xG so far and rank 29th in attacking third touches.

The Rapids have created 3.5 xG and rank 23rd in attacking third touches.

Only two teams have put fewer shots on target that the six that both teams have totalled this season.

The Rapids are missing striker Diego Rubio, while the Loons are still without playmaker Emanuel Reynoso, of whom the entire offense runs through for Minnesota. Last week Minnesota became the first team since 2010 to complete fewer than 50 percent (49.1) of its’ passes.

In a game missing stars, with two offensively challenged teams but who can play defense (MIN is third in xGA), the Under looks like the play for this week’s MLS picks.

  • Colorado Rapids vs Minnesota United picks: Under 2.5 (-110), risk 1 unit at DraftKings Sportsbook

St Louis City SC vs San Jose Earthquakes Prediction

Only three teams have seen all three of their games finish with both teams scoring. We just touched on one of them, and here is another of the three.

Expansion side St Louis sits top of the league after 3-2, 3-1 and 2-1 wins, against Austin, Charlotte and Portland respectively. They’re the first expansion side since the 2009 Sounders to win their opening three games.

San Jose lost 2-1 to Atlanta, won 2-1 over Vancouver and won 1-0 over Colorado last week.

The Earthquakes allowed the second-most goals last season with 69. They were horrendous on the road winning just one game and allowing a goal in all but one road game. They have just one road win in their past 20. The Quakes have now allowed a goal on the road in 11 straight games, while also scoring themselves in eight of those 11. This season Jeremy Ebobisse already has two goals after leading the team with 16 last season.

With eight goals in three games, it’s hard to bet against St Louis not finding the back of the net at home at CITYPARK this weekend. They’re also second in shots on target with 18. However, they’ve outperformed an xG of just 3.5 by a large amount.

  • St Louis City SC vs San Jose Earthquakes prediction: Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals (+100), risk 1 unit at DraftKings Sportsbook

MLS Week 4 Parlay Picks

Here’s a two-teamer for this weekend as part of our MLS predictions.

Seattle Sounders vs LAFC Prediction

After two impressive home wins by 4-0 and 2-0 scores, Seattle came back to Earth last week losing 1-0 in Cincinnati. They’ll return home to face the reigning champs LAFC in the first game of the MLS Week 4 slate at 4:00 pm EST. LAFC has beaten Portland, 3-2 and New England, 4-0 in league play. Then in the CCL they defeated Costa Rican side LD Alajuelense 3-0 in leg 1 of the round of 16 last week and lost 2-1 in leg two on Wednesday (advancing 4-2 on aggregate). They fielded a first-choice lineup so rotation could be in order this weekend,

So Los Angeles will be coming off a short week but it didn’t seem to matter last week in the route of the Revs.

Last year the scorelines between these two read 2-1 LAFC in Los Angeles and 1-1 in Seattle. History says we should at least see a couple of goals in this game. In 15 all-time meetings, there has been fewer than two goals scored only twice and each of those came in their very first meetings back in 2018. A road team has only won two of those meetings and Seattle is currently undefeated in their past six home games in this matchup.

Over five games these teams have combined to only allow three goals. But they’ve also combined to score 13. Seattle leads MLS in xG at 7.3, while LAFC is second at 4.7. Let’s back both teams scoring in our MLS predictions for this one.

Atlanta United vs Portland Timbers Prediction

These teams have gotten off to opposite starts to their 2023 season. Atlanta is undefeated at 2-1-0 and sitting tied atop the Eastern Conference with seven points. Thiago Almada has been exceptional for The Five Stripes with two goals and two assists already. Caleb Wiley scored a brace in last week’s 3-0 road win in Charlotte.

The Timbers claimed three points in Week 1, (1-0 over SKC), but have since dropped back-to-back results against both the champs, LAFC (3-2) and newcomers, St Louis City SC (2-1). Portland is currently eighth in the Western Conference. Despite the loss last week, Portland’s goal set a new club record for 23 straight games with a goal, which is also the current longest active streak in MLS.

That streak could in jeapordy against an Atlanta team playing at home, that is second in shots (48), third in shots on target (16), second in xG in the East (4.1) and first in attacking third touches (588). It won’t help that the Timbers have as many as eight players listed out on their current injury report, including several key starters.

An alternative way of betting this match could also be to look at the corners or cards market. Atlanta is fourth in corners this season with 21, totalling 8, 9 and 4 in their three games. Portland has conceded the third-most corners with 23 (11, 6 and 6). From a cards standpoint, only two teams have received more yellow cards than these teams which have each received eight. Including some form of Atlanta corners into a same-game parlay could be a play.

  • MLS Predictions: Seattle Sounders vs LAFC both to score / Atlanta United vs Portland Timbers over 1.5 (Parlay -105), risk 1 unit at Caesars Sportsbook

MLS Week 4 Parlay Picks

Here’s one more two-game parlay including both teams to score in these next two matches.

Toronto FC vs Inter Miami Prediction

I swear I don’t always include TFC picks because I live near Toronto. They just fit the mold for the way I like to bet perfectly. And that is of a side that is good enough to score, but not good enough to defend consistently or win. It proved true all 2022 season, and has continued into 2023. Their scorelines have been 3-2 (L), 1-1 (D) and 1-1 (D). Toronto has led in all three games but failed to win, something no other MLS team has done over their first three games of a season, ever.

After back-to-back 2-0 home wins, Miami went on the road last week and lost 1-0 to NYCFC. The Herons will have to make due without captain Gregore who suffered a Lisfranc injury last weekend. The central midfielder was dubbed “the heart and soul” of the team by manager Phil Neville.

Miami scored on Toronto in both games last season winning 2-1 and 1-0. The Herons have won five straight against the Reds and will have the advantage of Lorenzo Insigne again missing out through injury for TFC. But Federico Bernardeschi is still in the starting XI and has two goals to start the year.

The pressure is turning up in Toronto after this poor start and they’ll be eager to get three points at BMO. The problem is they just haven’t proved capable of putting in a complete game as of yet. I see both teams scoring, You could bet it on its own at -140 at Caesars Sportsbook, or include it in this parlay as part of your MLS predictions.

Houston Dynamo vs Austin FC Prediction

Houston has only scored one goal this season in two losses, 2-1 and 3-0, but this could be a chance for them to return to the scoresheet in their home opener on Saturday. They’ll be coming up against an Austin FC side that has struggled to open their 2023 season, despite being 2-0-1 in league play. They lost to expansion side St Louis in Week 1 before rebounding with wins the past two weeks. One of those wins came with a late 88′ minute goal against Montreal who has looked terrible, before last week’s 2-1 win over RSL.

However, Austin suffered a major letdown in CCL play losing to semi-pro side Violette of Haiti in the Round of 16. Austin lost 4-0 in leg 1 before winning 2-0 in leg 2 on Tuesday. However, that still sees them exiting the CCL early in a massive upset.

But one thing we know when these two new Texas rivals meet is that goals are typically on the menu in Copa Tejas. Last season Austin won 3-1 and 2-1. The three other meetings between them were a 2-1 Austin win, 3-0 Houston win, and 3-2 Austin win. Home teams are 4-0-1 in those five games. If you wanted to throw in two preseason matches between the teams too, those scores were 4-0 and 3-2. The both teams to score leg of this parlay is -165 at Caesars.

  • MLS Predictions: Toronto vs Miami both to score / Houston vs Austin both to score (Parlay +175), risk 1 unit at Caesars Sportsbook

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