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Michigan State vs Kansas State Odds, Spread & Picks for Sweet 16

John Perrotto

by John Perrotto in College Basketball

Updated Mar 23, 2023 · 8:43 AM PDT

Michigan State Spartans forward Malik Hall (25) grabs a rebound
Mar 19, 2023; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Michigan State Spartans forward Malik Hall (25) grabs a rebound over Marquette Golden Eagles forward Olivier-Maxence Prosper (12) during the second round of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament at Nationwide Arena. Mandatory Credit: Adam Cairns-The Columbus Dispatch Basketball Ncaa Men S Basketball Tournament Round 2
  • No. 7 seed Michigan State is a 1.5-point favorite over No. 3 Kansas State in an NCAA East Region Sweet 16 game on Thursday night in New York
  • Michigan State has won four of its last five games
  • A look at the Michigan State vs Kansas State odds can be found below with our top pick

The #7 seed Michigan State Spartans will again try to punch above its weight when it plays the #3 seed Kansas State Wildcats in the NCAA Tournament East Region semifinals at 6:30 p.m. ET Thursday at Madison Square Garden in New York. The Spartans are slight favorites in the Michigan State vs Kansas State odds in this game.

Michigan State (21-12, 17-16 ATS) knocked off #2 seed Marquette 69-60 on Sunday in a second-round game for its fourth win in its last five games. The Spartans are in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2019.

Kansas State (25-9, 22-11-1 ATS) won for the sixth time in its last eight games when it defeated Kentucky 75-69 on Sunday. Under first-year coach Jerome Tang, the Wildcats are making their first appearance in the Sweet since 2018.

See the odds and our Spartans vs Wildcats picks for the Sweet 16 here.

Michigan State vs Kansas State Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Michigan State -130 -1.5 (-110) Over 137.5 (-110)
Kansas State +110 +1.5 (-110) Under 137.5 (-110)

Michigan State is a 1.5-point favorite and a -130 choice on the moneyline over Kansas State in the college basketball odds and has a 56.52% implied win probability. The Spartans are listed at +3000 in the NCAA Tournament championship odds and the Wildcats are at +3500.

The winner advances to play either Tennessee (25-10) or Florida Atlantic (33-3) in the East Region final in the March Madness bracket. TBS will televise the game.

Odds as of March 22nd at Caesars Sportsbook. See list of March Madness betting promos

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Michigan State’s Izzo Giant Killer

Michigan State coach Tom Izzo has won an NCAA Tournament-record 16 games as a lower-seeded team against a higher-seeded team.

Senior guard Tyson Walker led the Spartans in their upset of Marquette. He scored 23 points for his seventh game of the season with at least 20 points.

Walker is Michigan State’s leading scorer with an average of 14.8 points a game.

However, it was a strong defensive effort that made the difference against Marquette. Michigan State held the Golden Eagles to 38.5% (20 of 52) shooting and forced 16 turnovers that led to 19 points for the Spartans.

That helped Michigan State overcome an awful shooting performance from 3-point range as it went 2 of 12 (16.7%). That was uncharacteristic as the Spartans are ninth in the nation in that category at 38.7%.

Senior forward Joey Hauser added 14 points and 10 rebounds. It was his seventh double-double of 2022-23 but first since Jan. 13.

Hauser is scoring 14.3 points and pulling down 7.1 rebounds a game.

Senior guard AJ Hoggard is third in the Big Ten in assists with a 5.9 average and is also has a 12.5 scoring average. Against Marquette, he contributed 13 points and four assists.

Michigan State has a free throw percentage of 75.7, which ranks 40th in the nation.

Tang Turns Kansas State Around

Kansas State has made it this far even though it had just two players on the roster when Tang replaced Bruce Weber.

One of those holdovers, senior guard Markquis Nowell, had a big game in the win over Kentucky. He finished with 27 points, nine assists and three steals.

Nowell scored 11 points, including going 8 for 8 at the foul line, to spark Kansas State’s game-ending 19-9 run that wiped out a 50-46 deficit.

Nowell leads the Big 12 in assists (7.8) and steals (2.4) and is fourth in scoring (17.1).

Senior forward Keyontae Johnson is averaging 17.5 points and 7.0 rebounds a game in his first season since collapsing on the court in 2020 while playing for Florida. He is third in the conference in scoring, fifth in assists and tops in field goal percentage at 51.4.

Johnson, who has Wooden Award odds of +20000, scored 13 points on Sunday while junior forward Nae’Quan Tomlin contributed 12 points, six rebounds and four blocked shots and senior guard Desi Sills also had 12 points.

Tomlin has season averages of 10.3 points and 5.8 rebounds.

Kansas State missed its first 13 three-point attempts against Kentucky but made three of its last four to finish at 23.8% (5 of 21). Kansas State was outrebounded 44-25 but held Kentucky to 20.0% (4 of 20) from long distance and forced 16 turnovers.

Kansas State is 13th in Division I in three-point defense (29.7%) and 49th in foul shooting (75.2%).

Michigan State vs Kansas State Prediction

Michigan State has won its last three games against Kansas State, but the teams last met during the 1996-97 season. Izzo is tough to bet against in this situation, but the Wildcats have the better team.

Michigan State vs Kansas State Picks: Kansas State +1.5 (-110)

Season record: 33-32 (-2.2 units) ATS, 4-10 (-5.5 units) ML

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