Upcoming Match-ups

Odds on Exact Week the Broncos Get First Win/Loss of 2020 NFL Season – Jets as First Win in Week 4 Pays 10-1

Drew Lock
The Denver Broncos will be trusting their offense to second-year pro Drew Lock. Photo from @Broncos (Twitter).
  • You can wager on what week the Denver Broncos will win and lose their first game
  • Denver is favored in five games for the 2020 season
  • We offer our best betting advice for Denver’s first win and loss this season

Even with another great draft class and with promise at quarterback for really the first time since Peyton Manning retired, the Denver Broncos look to be in tough for the upcoming 2020 NFL season.

But that doesn’t mean it won’t be interesting, and it certainly doesn’t mean Denver could bust it’s NFL win total expectation of 7.5. But there are some serious obstacles.

With that, let’s look at how the oddsmakers have pegged the Broncos’ odds of winning their exact first game and losing their exact first game of the season.

Denver Broncos 2020 Odds

Week Opponent Spread Odds To Be First Win Odds To Be First Loss
1 vs Tennessee Titans -2.5 -154 +130
2 at Pittsburgh Steelers +6 +500 +120
3 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1 +450 +750
4 at New York Jets +2.5 +1000 +2500
5 at New England Patriots +6 +2500 +2500
6 vs Miami Dolphins -6 +1600 +10000
7 vs Kansas City Chiefs +5.5 +8000 +8000
9 at Atlanta Falcons +3.5 +10000 +20000
10 at Las Vegas Raiders +2.5 +12500 +30000
11 vs Los Angeles Chargers -2 +15000 +50000
12 vs New Orleans Saints +3.5 +25000 +50000
13 at Kansas City Chiefs +11.5 +100000 +100000
14 at Carolina Panthers -1.5 +50000 +100000
15 vs Buffalo Bills PK +75000 +200000
16 at Los Angeles Chargers +5 +100000 +250000
17 vs Las Vegas Raiders -3.5 +100000 +500000
To Go 16-0 +150000

Odds as of May 29th

There’s not exactly a soft patch to find in that 16-game slate, except for when they get the Raiders and Chargers in Weeks 11 & 12 and Weeks 16 & 17. But even then, those are divisional matchups, where anything can happen.

Denver’s preseason opening lines show them as the underdog in all but five contests this season, thanks in large part to their fifth-toughest 2020 NFL strength of schedule.

Denver Gives Lock Weapons

Perhaps no stat better identifies Denver’s biggest issue in 2019 than the paltry 17.6 points per game average — the 28th-ranked offense in the NFL. As the league has been going on a scoring binge, Denver’s offense is a barren wasteland.

No offense to Joe Flacco, but he was just the latest on the carousel of Denver QBs that have driven the offense off the rails. Thankfully, second-year pivot Drew Lock gives the Broncos some potential at the most important position in the game.

Good on John Elway and the Broncos to give him every single opportunity to succeed. They drafted brilliant WR Jerry Jeudy at 15, and slot receiver KJ Hamler in the second round.

They beefed up a 12th-rated run offense with the acquisition of lineman Graham Glscow, while also spending high draft capital on linemen  Lloyd Cushenberry (third) and Albert Okwuegbunam (fourth). Finally, they inked Melvin Gordon from the Chargers.

With Philip Lindsay, Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant already in the fold, the Broncos have the potential to be more than a piece being dragged along by their defense.

Broncos Notoriously Fast Starters

There may not be many expected wins on the docket, but Denver was among the best at getting off to a winning start in the 2010s. After dropping their first two opening weeks of the decade, Denver reeled off seven straight before losing in last year’s opener to the Raiders.

This will be the third time in four years that the Broncos will also be on the back end of the  Monday Night double-header to kick off the season, but the first time they’ll be at home.

While the Titans did make it all the way to the AFC title game a year ago, the jury is still out on if their horse-drawn carriage reverts back to a pumpkin in 2020.

A Denver defense that started out historically slow — they didn’t record a turnover or sack in three straight games to start the year — will be in year two under Vic Fangio’s guidance, and features veteran additions with AJ Bouye at corner and Jurrell Casey on the defensive line.

Their plan, and really all other teams taking on the Titans, will be to stuff Derrick Henry — far easier said than done — and force Ryan Tannehill beat them through the air.

It makes sense if you want to pick this as Denver’s first win – and if you do, there are better moneyline odds here vs the prop (-130) — but there are some nice value bets in the following weeks you should consider targeting.

What Are the Best First Win / Loss Bets?

If you want to venture past Tennessee or think the Titans could spoil opening night in Denver, there are some great value picks for the Broncos’ first win. While +1000 in Week 4 against the Jets in New York looks especially tasty, Week 2 at Pittsburgh (+500) or Week 3 hosting the Bucs (+450) are enticing and not that far away.

Both teams are either returning or introducing their top-flight QB’s into the fold, and there’s definitely a chance that Ben Roethlisberger’s repaired elbow or Tom Brady’s new digs could stall early in the year.

On the other side, Denver’s first L is likely to come early. If not against the Titans, they’ll be facing a Steelers’ defense that ranked third in DVOA on that side last year. They will definitely test the Broncos’ retooled offensive line, particularly in the passing game.

While the odds are a lot nicer just a week later against the Bucs (+750), I don’t think Denver makes it back home undefeated by Week 3.

The picks:

First Win – Week 3 vs Bucs (+450)

First Loss – Week 1 vs Titans (+130)

Author Image
Discussion

Let's have fun and keep it civil.