Upcoming Match-ups

San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs Public Betting and Money Percentages for Super Bowl 58

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in NFL Football

Updated Feb 11, 2024 · 7:25 AM PST

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid at practice
Jul 24, 2023; St. Joseph, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) and head coach Andy Reid watch drills during training camp at Missouri Western State University. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Super Bowl 58 public betting splits are all over the Chiefs as two-point underdogs
  • The public is also siding with the under (47.5) in the 49ers vs Chiefs game total
  • See the Super Bowl 58 public betting splits and money percentages for 49ers vs Chiefs

With kickoff roughly 8.5 hours away, the Super Bowl 58 betting splits paint a stark portrait of where the confidence of the betting public lies. The public has been hammering Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs – who beat the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl 54 four years ago – as slight underdogs, and there has been significant line movement towards the Chiefs in the last 24 hours as a result.

49ers vs Chiefs Betting Percentages

Team Spread ATS Handle% ATS Bet% Total Points O/U Handle% O/U Bet% Moneyline ML Handle% ML Bet%
San Francisco 49ers -2 28% 22% 47.5 37% 24% -120 26% 36%
Kansas City Chiefs +2 72% 78% 47.5 63% 76% +100 74% 64%

Currently, Kansas City is getting 72% of ATS handle and 78% of ATS bets as two-point underdogs. The Chiefs are also garnering most of the action on the moneyline, sitting at 74% of moneyline handle and 64% of moneyline tickets.

The 49ers vs Chiefs game total splits are not as decisive. So far, the under is attracting 63% of game-total handle and 76% of bets on the total in the NFL public betting splits.

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Chiefs Have Been Beasts Against the Number

Just looking at the teams’ ATS performances to date, it’s not the least bit surprising to see the public siding with the Chiefs. Kansas City is 12-7-1 against the spread including postseason action, tied for the third-best ATS win percentage in the NFL (behind the 14-6 Detroit Lions and 11-6-1 LA Rams).

San Francisco has been much more average against the number, going 9-10 on the season. They failed to cover either of their first two postseason games, coming back to beat Green Bay 24-21 as 10.5-point favorites before edging out Detroit 34-31 as 7.5-point chalk.

The 49ers have been betting favorites in every single game they’ve played in the 2023-24 season.  Today’s spread is the second-smallest of the season: San Francisco was a modest one-point road favorite at the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 1 and made oddsmakers look foolish during a 30-7 win.

Chiefs and 49ers at Opposite Ends of the Over/Under Spectrum

The public’s lean towards the under goes hand in hand with its siding with the Chiefs against the spread and on the moneyline. The Chiefs were supposed to pair an electric offense with a serviceable defense, but thanks to injuries and a subpar receiving corps, KC’s offense wasn’t the juggernaut many were expecting and the defense played above expectations. The result was that Kansas City went over the total in just two of its first ten games and enters the Super Bowl with an eye-popping 6-14 over/under record.

Only two teams finished their seasons with a higher under percentage: the LA Chargers and Carolina Panthers, who were both 5-12. No team in the league had a bigger under margin than the Chiefs, whose games stayed under by an average of 6.9 points. If you think KC is going to control the game, it’s logical to side with the under as well.

The 49ers, on the other hand, were supposed to field a dominant defense and were, as a result, faced with some relatively low totals early in the year. While their defense was among the league’s best, they wound up going over their game totals more often than not thanks to an offense that finished third in scoring (28.9 PPG). The Niners head into Allegiant Stadium with an 11-8 over/under record, the seventh-highest over percentage in the NFL this year.

Roles Reversed from Last 49ers vs Chiefs Super Bowl

When the Niners and Chiefs squared off in the championship game four short years ago, the Super Bowl 54 spread closed at Kansas City -1.5 while the total was considerably higher at 53.5. The 49ers jumped out to a 20-10 lead but couldn’t hang on, ultimately losing 31-20 in a game that stayed 2.5 points under the total.

Underdog is not a role that Patrick Mahomes has played often in his five-year career. The two-time Super Bowl champion has only been an underdog 12 times previously. He has an impeccable 10-1-1 record against the spread and an almost-as-astonishing 9-3 record straight up.

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