- Kyle Busch is the favorite this week at the Bass Pro Shops Night Race on Saturday, September 18th, 2021
- The “Race For The Chase” continues with 11 more spots to fill
- We’ve got you covered with all the odds and trends ahead of Saturday’s race in Tennessee
NASCAR heads to Bristol with another Saturday night race. This is after the race at Richmond, where Martin Truex Jr. took advantage of his good long-run speed and ran away with the Richmond race. However, this week, Kyle Busch is the current favorite at +400, but Kyle Larson (+450), Denny Hamlin (+600), and several others are close when it comes to Bass Pro Shops Night Race odds.
Let’s take a look at the Bass Pro Shops Night Race odds from Bristol and figure out which drivers are the best bets.
NASCAR Bass Pro Shops Night Race Odds
|Driver||Odds to Win at DraftKings||Odds to Finish Top Three||Odds to Finish Top Five|
|Martin Truex Jr.||+1800||+600||+260|
Odds as of September 16th
Kyle Busch is a Very Slight Favorite at Bristol
NASCAR drivers will run on the 0.533-mile Bristol Motor Speedway when the flag drops for the Saturday night race beginning around 8:00 PM EST.
At Richmond, Martin Truex Jr. just ran the race faster on the long runs — especially the last one. His speed intervals had been excellent over the final segments. That should not have been surprising. Kyle Busch has been one of the best racers on this short track over the last several years.
This is part of the reason that again the younger Busch is a +400 favorite in the Bass Pro Shops Night Race odds. There is a little less bunching up of odds on Saturday night, but five drivers do have +1000 or shorter odds for the Bass Pro Shops Night Race.
Now, part of the reason why the numbers are so bunched up is this.
🤓 Fun fact: Six drivers entered in Saturday's Cup race at @BMSupdates have won there at least twice, yet not a single driver in the field has won there only once.
— Terrin Waack (@TerrinWaack) September 15, 2021
It just shows that Kyle Busch has the most experience here along with guys like Kevin Harvick and Kurt Busch. Also, the No. 18 car has led the most laps (643) over the previous seven races. Typically, the younger Busch leads a lot of laps and again keeps finishing in the top five (six of the previous seven appearances) that do not include the 2021 dirt race.
Also, the final race of this three-race trilogy is yet another one that the Joe Gibbs Racing driver has plenty of success in. He enjoys amazing speed interval segments (three times leading in the last six races). Again, Busch just knows the banking/turns like few drivers ever will at Bristol.
Bass Pro Shops Night Race Recent Winners
|Year||Race Winner||Pole Position||Most Laps Led|
|2020||Kevin Harvick — Stewart-Haas Racing||Brad Keselowski – Team Penske||Kevin Harvick — Stewart-Haas Racing|
|2019||Denny Hamlin — Joe Gibbs Racing||Matt DiBenedetto — Leavine Family Racing||Denny Hamlin — Joe Gibbs Racing|
|2018||Kurt Busch — Stewart-Haas Racing||Kyle Larsson — Chip Ganassi Racing||Ryan Blaney — Team Penske|
|2017||Kyle Busch— Joe Gibbs Racing||Erik Jones — Furniture Row Racing||Erik Jones — Furniture Row Racing|
|2016||Kevin Harvick — Stewart-Haas Racing||Carl Edwards — Joe Gibbs Racing||Kyle Busch — Joe Gibbs Racing|
The race is normally 500 laps, and overtime has occurred rarely at Bristol. The last several full races have gone no laps over the normal distance.
Can Kyle Larson Do Better Than Last Week?
Sports bettors have decent history at Bristol when it comes to the Hendricks Motorsports Racing driver. However, Kyle Larson is still leading in the NASCAR Cup Series odds, but here is where it gets fun. Larson still leads the playoff chase by more than 20 points despite not winning either of the first two races. There is an irony somewhere.
Oh, did we mention that he starts 5th on Saturday night and looks to improve on last week where he just led eight laps and never factored into contending?
Since 2017 at Bristol minus spring 2019 where he had a laundry list of problems, Kyle Larson has 2 runner-ups, a 5.0 average finish, a 4.5 average running position and he averaged leading 110.2 laps per race. pic.twitter.com/HQx3KwnEyq
— Ryan (@ifantasyrace) September 14, 2021
The question becomes can Larson finally win a race at Bristol despite coming close several times? It will come down to that final long run where Busch has typically outrun the No. 5 car.
Is Kevin Harvick or Joey Logano Worth a Shot?
The Stewart-Haas Racing driver has had plenty of success at Bristol but has had his moments of average. Harvick has three top-tens and a win in his past six races on the 0.533-mile course.
The funny thing is that Joey Logano also has three top-tens in that span with no wins. Both have led right around 8-9% of the laps, which is a bit eerie. It almost seems like Joey Logano’s Team Penske car has kind of the same build as the Harvick car.
It will be an all Joe Gibbs Racing front row for Saturday night's Cup Series playoff race at Bristol. Martin Truex Jr. starts on the pole, with Denny Hamlin second. Joey Logano, Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson complete the top five. pic.twitter.com/rD9MPV5Lbc
— Jordan Bianchi (@Jordan_Bianchi) September 15, 2021
For those wondering, Joey Logano does get to start third. Taking a shot on Joey Logano at +1000 in the Bass Pro Shops Night Race odds looks quite appetizing. Meanwhile, Kevin Harvick is down in eighth right near Kyle Busch, who is starting ninth. There is a feeling that the dominators could dominate. Last week, 13 of the drivers in the chase finished in the top 15. That may happen this week.
Can someone take advantage of the long run on the track where a lap goes by in less than 15 seconds? There are a few medium and long shots in mind for this type of track.
Here are our best bets:
- Top Pick: Kyle Busch to win (+400)
- Medium Shot: Joey Logano (+1000), Brad Keselowski (+1600)
- Longshots: Alex Bowman (+2500), Christopher Bell (+2200)
- Daniel Suarez Top 20 (-150), Ross Chastain Top 10 (+130)