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Juventus vs Lazio Odds & Prediction – Coppa Italia Quarterfinals

Josh Ricker

by Josh Ricker in Soccer News

Updated Feb 1, 2023 · 12:05 PM PST

Lazio vs Napoli
30/10/2021, Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo, Italy, Italian Serie A, Lazio at Atalanta: Ciro Immobile celebrates his goal. (Photo by ImagePhoto/Imago/Icon Sportswire) ****NO AGENTS---NORTH AND SOUTH AMERICA SALES ONLY****
  • Juventus hosts Lazio in the quarterfinals of the Coppa Italia on Thursday, February 2nd at 3:00 pm ET
  • Lazio last beat Juventus in the 2019 Supercoppa Italia, but are now winless in six straight against the Old Lady
  • Get more Juventus vs Lazio odds and predictions below

The Coppa Italia returns on Thursday as Juventus vs Lazio caps off the quarterfinal round. Both of these sides are looking to recover from Serie A hiccups at home this weekend as Juventus lost to Monza and Lazio drew to Fiorentina. With the Scudetto probably out of reach for both clubs, this quarterfinal is a massive hurdle for their trophy winning hopes and see Juve favored in the Juventus vs Lazio odds.

To start, Juventus reached the quarterfinal stage thanks to a late 2-1 victory over Monza just a couple of weeks ago. A wonderful Federico Chiesa curler, in the 78th minute, was enough to see Juventus through to this round. Despite a recent injury, Chiesa should be available for Massimiliano Allegri in what could be a huge boost to their attack.

Conversely, Lazio snuck past Bologna in the Round of 16, on a narrow 1-0 score line. The match marked another clean sheet for Mauricio Sarri’s side, a tally that now sits at 13 across all competitions. Even pre-points reduction, Lazio have earned as many points as Juventus in Serie A this season and are not a team to be trifled with.

Juventus vs Lazio Odds

Matchup Moneyline Odds
Juventus +115
Lazio +260
Draw +240

Odds as of January 31st from DraftKings Sportsbook. Use this DraftKings Sportsbook promo code to bet on this match and claim a unique sign-up bonus. 

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Overall, Juventus are the significant moneyline favorites with +115 in the Juventus vs Lazio odds; this equates to an implied win probability of 46.51%. In truth, this is fair considering their head-to-head record against one another.

Juventus are 6-2-2 against I Biancocelesti in their last ten matches in all competitions, which is a significant advantage when considering your Juventus vs Lazio picks. Moreover, they are the most decorated club in the Coppa Italia with 14 trophies and have a 70.83% winning percentage at home in domestic play this season.

Juventus vs Lazio Over/Under

Furthermore, this match is expected to be quite light in regards to the goal tally. In fact, the under on 2.5 goals has juiced odds of -135, while the reverse options sits at +110. Lazio obviously has one of the best backlines in Italy this season; that is an undoubted fact.

However, the over on 2.5 goals has hit in three of the last four Juventus vs Lazio matches. On top of that, both of these sides could welcome back the likes of Ciro Immobile, Federico Chiesa, Dusan Vlahovic and Paul Pogba. To me, that spells goals and +110 has enough value for me to bite in my Coppa Italia picks.

Juventus vs Lazio Statistics

Juventus
VS
Lazio
1.50 Goals per game 1.80
1.45 Expected goals per game 1.34
0.85 Goals allowed per game 0.80
1.11 Expected goals allowed per game 1.10
50% Possession % 51%
60% Clean Sheet % 55%
14.5 Shots per game 11.5
L-D-W-L-W Recent Form Guide (All Comps) D-W-W-W-D

Stats in the table from 2022/23 Serie A play.

Goalscorer Odds for Dusan Vlahovic

Another spot I fancy is Dusan Vlahovic to score anytime for Juventus with odds of +160. In all honestly, this is not the best value play on the board as Vlahovic is the most highly favored player to score on either side of Juventus vs Lazio. However, he is also the most likely, at least in my opinion.

The newly turned 23-year-old is expected to return on Thursday and should make a significant splash. In just ten Serie A starts this season, Vlahovic has scored six goals, at a clip of 0.62 goals per ninety. The former Fiorentina forward also has scored four times in just five appearances against Lazio, which makes this a perfect half-unit play.

Juventus vs Lazio Projected Lineups and Injuries

Juventus Projected Lineup: Perin, Kostic, Danilo, Bremer, Cuadrado, Rabiot, Locatelli, Fagioli, Chiesa, Vlahovic, Di Maria

Major Injuries & Absences: Bonucci, Milik, Pogba (questionable), Cuadrado (questionable), Chiesa (questionable)

Lazio Projected Lineup: Provedel, Hysaj, Romagnoli, Casale, Marusic, Alberto, Cataldi, Milinkovic-Savic, Zaccagni, Immobile, Anderson

Major Injuries & Absences: Radu, Pellegrini

Expect Chalk to Win Out in Turin

As much as I love riding with Lazio, I do not think winning is in their destiny on Friday in the Juventus vs Lazio picks. While they have beaten the likes of Atalanta, AC Milan and Roma this season, Juventus are a slight step above. The Old Lady could return a lot of players back into the fray, which makes the challenge even more difficult for Sarri’s group.

Not to mention the fact that Juventus are unbeaten in their last 18 home matches in the Coppa Italia, which is a truly impressive statistic for a cup competition. Juventus have hit a rocky road, but have still won the xG battle in their last two outings, which shows at least in some aspects the performances are still there.

Juventus vs Lazio Prediction

All in all, I like the Juventus moneyline at +115 in the Juventus vs Lazio odds, the over on 2.5 goals at +110 and Vlahovic to score anytime at +160.

Juventus vs Lazio Picks: Juventus moneyline (+115), Over 2.5 Goals (+110), Vlahovic to score anytime (+160) 

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