LAFC vs Philadelphia Union Odds & Prediction – MLS Cup Picks

• LAFC hosts the Philadelphia Union on Saturday, November 5 at 4:00 pm EST in the 2022 MLS Cup
• Los Angeles is listed as a -130 moneyline favorite in the MLS Cup odds
• Read on for our preview and LAFC vs Philadelphia prediction for the MLS Cup here

After a 34-game regular season and three rounds of playoffs, the MLS Cup Final is here. And for the first time since 2003, the top seeds from both the East and West have reached the final. Read on for the MLS Cup odds, picks and our LAFC vs Philadelphia prediction here.

We’ve been following the league all season long and between our weekly regular season articles and Twitter picks, we’re sitting at 76-56 and +10.43 units for the season.

We’ll hope to conclude the season on a high as we preview the final below.

LAFC vs Philadelphia Odds

Odds as of Nov 4 at BarstoolSportsbook. Use this Barstool Sportsbook promo code to bet on the 2022 MLS Cup

Los Angeles FC is tipped as -130 home favorites in the MLS Cup odds above. That gives them an implied probability of 56.52% to win the final within regulation. However, this being a final, remember that we could see extra time or even penalties. All moneyline, spread and totals bets only consider results after 90 minutes.

To make a bet for either team to simply win MLS Cup by any means you’ll need to bet on the “to win the trophy” market. Those odds list LAFC at -250 and Philadelphia at +175.

Saturday’s final kicks off at 4:00 pm EST and can be watched on FOX, Univision and TUDN. It can also been seen on TSN4 and TVA Sports in Canada.

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MLS Cup Over/Under and Spread

The total goals for the MLS Cup is set at 2.5. The Over is juiced to -175 odds, while the Under returns a price of +133. Asian Handicap or spread lines list LAFC at -0.75 (+100) and Philadelphia +0.75 (-120).

▪️Top seeds in their conference
▪️#MLSCup finalists
▪️Two very different title-contending rosters

✍️ @tombogert on how both sides built a pair of elite squads: https://t.co/Mbhk1aIxbN

— Major League Soccer (@MLS) November 3, 2022

LAFC Win Supporters’ Shield, Now Target First MLS Cup

For much of the MLS regular season, LAFC looked like they would be easily marching toward a Supporters’ Shield victory. They started the season with just four losses in 25 games and looked like shoe-ins. However, the season closed with uneven performances that saw them finish on a 3-1-5 run. That oddly coincided with the addition of Gareth Bale, Giorgio Chiellini, and Cristian Tello. The abundance of resources proved too hard to quickly integrate for Steve Cherundolo’s LAFC over the past couple of months.

In fact, Tello has only played three games, Bale has been a bit player at best and has been injured, and Chiellini is a glorified substitute. But that’s been fine as the lineup is more settled and LAFC won two of their final three regular-season games before losing 1-0 to Nashville on Decision Day. That left them with 67 points and a tie-breaker on wins over Philly for the Shield.

LAFC scored the second-most goals this regular season and allowed the second-fewest goals against. Both of those stats ranked behind their MLS Cup opponents in the Union. However, LAFC was tops in both xG (62.2) and xGA (34.6).

🎙️John Thorrington, @latif_blessing, and Ilie Sánchez spoke to the media ahead of Saturday's @MLS Cup Final.

Training Report presented by @DrinkBODYARMOR.

— LAFC (@LAFC) November 2, 2022

A new star also emerged in Denis Bouanga who debuted August 31 but didn’t score until October 2, He’s now scored three goals in his past four games including scoring a brace in LAFC’s 3-2 El Trafico win over the LA Galaxy in the playoffs.

Cristian Arango was the team’s leading scorer this season with 18 goals and he’s now scored a goal in back-to-back games. He tallied against the Galaxy and also last week in LAFC’s 3-0 win over Austin in the conference final.

LAFC vs Philadelphia Head-to-Head Stats

We weren't *technically* invited to #MLSCup Media Day…but that wasn't going to stop us 😉 pic.twitter.com/L0e1ks7zL4

— The Call Up (@MLSCallUp) November 4, 2022

Philadelphia Highest Scorers, Best Defense

The Philadelphia Union aren’t usually known for their goalscoring. But this season was different. Jim Curtain’s team led the league in scoring with 72 goals. That was six more than LAFC. The Union had three players score in double-digits with Daniel Gazdag (20), Julian Carranza (15) and Mikael Uhre (12).

But they also allowed a league-low 26 goals, 12 fewer than LAFC’s 38 which was an MLS record. Jakob Glesnes won the MLS Defender of the Year and goalkeeper Andre Blake won Goalkeeper of the Year. The Union led the league with 15 clean sheets.

They were third overall in xG (59.4) and third overall in xGA (37.9).

Andre Blake had the best shot-stopping grade out of any goalkeeper in the Conference semifinals (85.9) AND Conference finals (72.7)

| @PhilaUnion 💪 | pic.twitter.com/aiYs3fXtMm

— PFF FC (@PFF_FC) November 3, 2022

Philadelphia only lost twice in their opening 23 games. But they split the points nine times with draws in that span which saw them slightly off the pace for a run at the Shield. But going 7-1-3 down the stretch, alongside a dip in form from LAFC, saw the Shield race come down to the wire. From July 8 onwards, the Union’s offense exploded. They had wins of 7-0, 6-0 (three times) and 5-1. They outscored their opponents 50-13 in their final 16 regular season games.

A 1-1-1 mark in their final three games gave LAFC the room to snatch back the top spot overall. The Union was tops in the East though and had a first-round bye themselves. They defeated FC Cincinnati 1-0 and NYCFC 3-1, both at home. In the conference semifinals, New York was controlling the game, (they had 66 percent possession), and took the lead in the 57′ minute. But the lead was short-lived as the Union bounced back with goals in the 65′, 67′ and 76′ minutes to book their spot in the final.

And here we are. The MLS Cup being played out in Los Angeles, with both #1 seeds advancing and LAFC holding the home-field tie-breaker.

LAFC vs Philadelphia Union MLS Cup Props

If you’re looking for some additional wagers to make on MLS Cup, here are some players to consider for LAFC vs Philadelphia Union props for shots on target. All props and odds taken from DraftKings Sportsbook.

1. Cristian Arango 2+ shots on target (-150): Carlos Vela and Gareth Bale may be the big names in Los Angeles, but it’s Cristian Arango who leads the team in goals with 18. He’s probably the best anytime goalscorer prop bet to make at +115 odds. But you could also just bet him to get a couple of shots on target. He was second overall in MLS this season with 108 attempts and 47 on target. Arango has finished with at least one shot on target in 9/10 recent games, with multiple shots on target in 5/10 and with three shots on target in two of his past three games.
2. Daniel Gazdag 1+ shot on target (-165): Oddsmakers may be sleeping on Daniel Gazdag here because he’s a midfielder. But Gazdag led Philadelphia with 42 shots on target this season. Only seven times across all competitions did he fail to register a shot on target. He’s done so in nine of his past ten games and in each of his last four.
3. Julian Carranza 2+ shots on target (+225): Julian Carranza tallied a goal and assist last game on three shots and two on target. It was the third straight game Carranza has finished with two shots on target. His 90 attempts at goal were 29 more than any other Union player this year.

📊 Cristian Arango in the 2022 playoffs:

▪️ 4 shots on target.
▪️ 2 goals.#LAFC #MLS #MLSCupPlayoffs #MLSCup pic.twitter.com/gYzpueWgFF

— dataref (@dataref_) October 30, 2022

LAFC vs Philadelphia Union Team Lineups and Injuries

The most notable injuries heading into MLS Cup for LAFC are Bale who has been rested with a leg injury during the playoffs so far. As well as defender Eddie Segura who is questionable with an undisclosed injury. Chiellini replaced Segura on the backline last week.

For Philadelphia, their big concern is that of captain Alejandro Bedoya who was subbed off at half last week after dealing with multiple injuries the past month. Last week Jack McGlynn came on to replace Bedoya.

LAFC Projected Lineup: Crepeau; Palacios, Chiellini, Murillo, Hollingshead; Acosta, Sanchez, Cifuentes; Bouanga, Arango, Vela

Injuries & absences: Bale, Segura

Philadelphia Projected Lineup: Blake; Wagner, Elliott, Glesnes, Mbaizo; Flach, Martinez, McGlynn; Gazdag; Uhre, Carranza

Injuries & absences: Bedoya

LAFC vs Philadelphia Union MLS Cup Prediction

It’s the second meeting this season between these two, with the teams splitting the points in a 2-2 draw in Los Angeles back on May 7.

Historically, past results between the two have favored LAFC, but just barely, with one win for LAFC and three draws.

A similar result could be in the cards again with the two highest-scoring teams meeting in the final. A bet on both teams scoring would’ve cashed in the past 8/11 LAFC games. A bet on both scoring and over 2.5 goals is 7-4 in that time. The odds for that to happen in the final are -114.

However, while a bet on Over 2.5 goals is 4-2 in Philly’s past six, a clean sheet has been kept in five of their past seven.

Ready to crown a new #MLSCup champion. 👑 pic.twitter.com/yBwCwuxzCZ

— Major League Soccer (@MLS) November 2, 2022

But if you want an outright winner, I’m going to lean toward the home team at -130 odds. The amount of resources LAFC has poured into this year’s squad is ridiculous. It would be a colossal failure to not lift the trophy. LAFC has amassed so much talent, that even if healthy, Champions League winner and Wales international Bale would likely be on the bench. While NYCFC won the final as the road team in Portland, Oregon last season, an away team winning is rare. Home teams are 8-3 in the past 11 MLS Cups. Furthermore, a road team hasn’t won in regulation (not penalties) since 2015.

When it comes to this season’s playoffs, home teams have also gone 10-2.

Los Angeles only lost twice at home this season and just once in their past 12. They’ve lost just three times at Banc of California Stadium in their past 26 games dating back to last season. They’ve also scored multiple goals in 20 of those 26. This season only, LAFC tallied multiple goals on their home pitch in 15/19 games (regular season and playoffs). LAFC to score over 1.5 goals on Saturday is listed at -152 odds.

I’m lucky enough to have placed futures bets on both of these teams earlier this season. So I’m perfectly happy to simply cheer for the two highest-scoring teams to do their thing and bet a goal from each team to add a little extra profit to my bankroll.

Picks: Both teams to score (-165); 1 unit at Caesars Sportsbook

Also, be sure to check out BetRivers this weekend to receive a 20% profit boost for any soccer parlay of three or more legs. Odds must be -200 or greater and the max bet is $25.