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Liverpool vs Real Madrid Odds & Prediction – Champions League Final

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in Soccer

May 27, 2022 · 4:00 PM PDT

Real Madrid
ESP: Real Madrid - Manchester City. UEFA Champions League. Semifinals. Karim Benzema, Vinicius Jr. and Eder Gabriel Militao of Real Madrid during the UEFA Champions League match between Real Madrid and Manchester City played at Santiago Bernabeu Stadium on May 4, 2021 in Madrid Spain. (Photo by Pressinphoto/Imago/Icon Sportswire) ****NO AGENTS---NORTH AND SOUTH AMERICA SALES ONLY****
  • The 2022 UEFA Champions League Final kicks off at 3:00 pm EST on Saturday, May 28
  • Liverpool from the EPL, meets Real Madrid from La Liga in a rematch of the 2018 final
  • See the odds and our Liverpool vs Real Madrid prediction below

The 2021/22 Champions League Final between Liverpool vs Real Madrid kicks off at 3:00 pm EST Saturday afternoon at the Stade de France in Paris.

Read on to see the current Champions League Final odds, all the key stats, and trends for both teams, and our Liverpool vs Real Madrid picks here.

Liverpool vs Real Madrid Odds

Matchup Moneyline
Liverpool +102
Real Madrid +270
Draw +250

Odds as of May 27 at Caesars Sportsbook.

The opening Champions League Final odds favored Liverpool at +100 odds. Madrid was listed at +250 and the draw was +260. As you can see in the table above, those odds have not shifted too much.

If you’re new to this sport and want to know how to bet on soccer, remember the moneyline odds above are for the result at the end of 90 minutes and injury time only.

Odds to lift the trophy by any means (regulation, extra-time, or penalties) lists Liverpool at -190 and Madrid at +150. That gives Liverpool an implied probability of 65.52% in the Champions League odds, and Madrid an implied probability of 40% to win.

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UCL Over/Under and Spread

When it comes to the total for this match between Liverpool vs Real Madrid, the total is set at 2.5. The Over is listed at odds of -125, while the Under is at -105.

It’s really tough to take the historical data in Champions League Finals into consideration. You’re first thought has to be, “these are the two best teams in Europe, there have to be goals”. However, each of the last three finals have fallen under the total. In the past ten years, the Over/Under on 2.5 totals is an even 5-5.

It’s round two between these two heavyweight sides. It was just 2018 when they last met in the Champions League Final. Madrid scored first through a Karim Benzema 51′ minute goal. Liverpool’s Sadio Mane tied things minutes later, but two goals from Gareth Bale in the 64′ and 83′ gave Madrid their 13th Champions League title. Liverpool has won the trophy on six occasions themselves, with the sixth coming the following season in 2019 over Tottenham.

Liverpool vs Real Madrid Prediction

Let’s take a look at how each of Liverpool and Real Madrid made it to Paris for this weekend’s Champions League Final.

Liverpool’s Path to the Final

Liverpool’s path to the Champions League Final started with easily topping Group B in the group stage. They blew past the likes of Atletico Madrid, Porto, and AC Milan. They went 6-0-0, scoring 17 goals and conceding just six.

From there they advanced past Inter Milan 2-1 on aggregate after a 2-0 win and 1-0 loss in the round of 16. Against Benfica in the quarterfinals, they won 3-1 and drew 3-3. And finally, the semifinals saw them win 2-0 and 3-2 versus Villarreal.

Liverpool’s Domestic Form

In England, Liverpool have also been dominant all season. If not for an equally dominant Manchester City, Liverpool could/should have won the EPL title this season. As it unfolded, it came down to the final game of the season in EPL Matchday 38. With Liverpool trailing City by one point, and both sides winning their final matches, it was City who lifted the trophy.

But Liverpool has already tasted multiple championships this season. In the EFL Cup Final versus Chelsea, they drew 0-0 after 90 minutes. It took 21 penalties to get there, but a Chelsea miss by keeper Kepa Arrizabalaga gave the Reds their first trophy of the year in February. Then, just a few weeks ago on May 14, they again faced Chelsea, this time in the FA Cup Final. Again, it was 0-0 after 90. And again it needed penalties. This time just 11, but again it was a Liverpool win.

If their domestic finals are any indication, this could be a low-scoring affair.

Real Madrid’s Path to the Final

Over on the Real Madrid side, they too topped their group, Group D during the group stage of the competition. They were 5-0-1, scoring 14 and conceding three, to a group that included Inter Milan, Sheriff Tiraspol, and Shakhtar Donetsk. That defeat came shockingly at home to Sheriff.

Once into the round of 16, they advanced past PSG 3-2 on aggregate, losing 1-0 and then winning 3-1. In the quarterfinals, they advanced past Chelsea 5-4, winning leg 1 by a 3-1 score and then losing 3-2 in leg 2. They lost 4-3 to Man City in leg 1 of the semifinals and were just minutes from being eliminated in leg 2 being down 1-0. However, two goals by Rodrygo in the 90′ and 91′ minutes drew the teams level. A Benzema penalty five minutes into extra-time would prove to be the winner Madrid needed to reach the final.

Real Madrid’s Domestic Form

Madrid has also lifted a trophy this year, but for them, it was the La Liga title. Finishing the season with 86 points, and a huge 13 points ahead of second-place Barcelona, Los Blancos wrapped up their title weeks ago. It allowed them the opportunity to rotate and rest starters in their final La Liga matches. It showed, in that they only won one of their last four.

They also didn’t need to worry about other cup competitions. Spain’s domestic tournament, the Copa del Rey, was out of the question for some time now, as Madrid was eliminated in February during the quarterfinals.

Liverpool vs Real Madrid UCL Head-to-Head Stats

Liverpool
VS
Real Madrid
10-1-1 UCL Record (WDL) 8-0-4
30 (23.3) Goals For (xG) 28 (20.6)
13 (10.0) Goals Against (xGA) 14 (16.6)
4 Cleans Sheets 4
199 / 72 Shot Attempts / On Target 176 / 68
79 /27 Opponent Shot Attempts / On Target 181 / 62
62.58% Average Possession 51.50%

Among the key stat takeaways from above and others, is that both teams have kept four clean sheets over their four UCL matches.

It’s likely Liverpool will hold the majority of possession in this match. It’s something they’ve done in all 12 matches. In fact, only four times have they held lower than 60-percent of the possession during their UCL campaign.

Compare that to Real Madrid, who has only held the possession advantage five times in their 12 matches. All five of those came in their first five matches versus Inter Milan, Sheriff (twice), and Shakhtar Donetsk (twice) in the group stage. Not counting Inter Milan, obviously, those were against far inferior opponents. They’ve never held the possession advantage during the knockout round.

Any sort of possession prop in Liverpool’s favor could be worth a bet if you can find it at your sportsbook.

Benzema will get the majority of the headlines for Real Madrid, and rightfully so. But Vinicius Junior will also play a huge part in the final. Vini Jr ranks first in a ton of key statistical categories during the Champions League. They include the likes of key passes, shot-creating actions, goal-creating actions, pressures, players dribbled past, progressive carries, carries into the final third, carries into the penalty area, and fouls drawn.

Liverpool’s Andrew Robertson and Trent Alexander-Arnold rank fifth and seventh respectively in key passes. Fabinho is second in tackles and first in tackles won.

The Reds’ Virgil van Dijk leads all players in aerials won.

Luka Modric, Madrid, and Naby Keita, Liverpool, are tied for the most through balls.

Team-wise, one stat that really stands out is Liverpool’s opponents’ shot total per 90 minutes. They rank first at 6.58. Real Madrid ranks 23rd at 14.29.

Champions League Goalscorer Odds

It’s a star-studded lineup on both sides in Saturday’s Liverpool vs Real Madrid final. Among the many players to choose from in your Champions League player props, two have to stand out.

Mohamed Salah Goalscorer Odds

Mohamed Salah has scored eight times during this Champions League competition. He finished atop the Premier League scoring charts this season with 23 goals to win the Golden Boot.

Salah left the last Champions League final between these teams with a dislocated shoulder after a tackle by Sergio Ramos. He’ll surely be motivated to be a key contributor this time around. He has odds of +130 to be an anytime scorer.

Karim Benzema Goalscorer Odds

Benzema has been on absolute fire in the Champions League and La Liga.

During the UCL, Benzema has scored 15 times, which is just two goals shy of Cristiano Ronaldo’s record of 17 in a single tournament. Benzema’s xG sits at only 6.4, meaning he’s been making goals out of nothing.

In Spain, he scored 27 goals to win the Golden Boot in La Liga.

A bet on Benzema to score in the final (during regulation) is listed at +145 odds.

Liverpool vs Real Madrid Team Lineups and Injuries

The biggest injury concern for either team heading into the final is that of Liverpool midfielder Thiago Alcantara. Thiago suffered an Achilles injury in Liverpool’s Matchday 38 win against Wolves. The injury is looking to not be as serious as first thought though. Thiago returned to training this week and manager Jurgen Klopp was quoted as saying “it looks good,” that he will participate on Saturday.

That would be a huge boost as Thiago leads Liverpool in tackle success rate and is the player that controls their midfield. Liverpool this season has won 84% of the matches where Thiago has started and just 68% when he hasn’t.

Liverpool Projected Lineup: Alisson; Robertson, van Dijk, Konate, Alexander-Arnold; Thiago, Fabinho, Henderson; Diaz, Mane, Salah

Liverpool Injuries: Thiago (probable), Origi (out)

Real Madrid Projected Lineup: Courtois; Mendy, Nacho, Militao, Carvajal; Kroos, Casemiro, Modric; Junior, Benzema, Valverde

Real Madrid Injuries: Hazard (out)

Liverpool vs Real Madrid Pick

There’s not much to choose from between these sides. Klopp’s Liverpool is arguably one of the two best teams in all of Europe right now. Real Madrid have won this competition more times than anyone else. Manager Carlo Ancelotti is on the brink of becoming the first manager to win four UCL titles. It’s certainly not hard to see both of these teams scoring on Saturday at -145 odds.

There’s a debate to be made if the extra time off for Real Madrid will be an advantage. Compared to Liverpool going down to the wire with Man City for the EPL title last week. I will lean towards it being an advantage to Liverpool who should be sharp. Even with playing til the end, Klopp has managed Salah’s minutes down the stretch.

No one can knock Ancelotti’s tactics. He adjusts in the second half and has seen his Madrid team pull off multiple comebacks. But can the magic continue for one more match? Madrid have been close to exiting this competition on several occasions. They were down 2-0 to PSG with 30 minutes left. Down 4-3 to Chelsea with 10 minutes left. And down 5-3 to City into stoppage-time. They had a 1-percent chance of advancing.

PSG is known to fall short in the UCL. Chelsea hasn’t looked that impressive in the past couple of months. And the Man City collapse was historical. I’m willing to bet if Liverpool get ahead early they won’t capitulate.

And that could very well happen. During the knockout rounds, Madrid has allowed the first goal in 5/6 matches. Of the 14 goals they’ve scored in the knockouts, 11 were scored in the second half and one in extra-time. Only two came in the first half. Liverpool have scored first in 4/6 knockout round matches.

If Liverpool controls the run of play and gets ahead early, and given the lack of shots allowed they concede, Madrid may find it hard to pull off another miraculous comeback.

I see Liverpool scoring first and winning in regulation. You could bet them separately or make a same-game parlay for +125 odds.

Champions League Final Picks: Liverpool to win in regulation (+102); Liverpool to score first (-145)

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