Kentucky Derby Longshot Picks – Odds for Classic Causeway, Tawny Port, Tiz the Bomb & More Horses Who Can Make You Big Money
- Eight horses sit knotted as betting longshots in the Kentucky Derby odds
- Tiz the Bomb, Classic Causeway are among longshots seeking to overcome recent disappointing performances
- Read on for all the odds and trends ahead of Saturday evening’s running of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs
With Saturday’s running of the 148th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky now just a couple of days away, the simmering rivalry between current betting favorites Zandon and Epicenter continues to be the biggest story of the week.
However, sports bettors searching for value in the odds to win this year’s Fastest Two Minutes in Sports should not overlook the potential value at the bottom of the odds board, where eight horses remain deadlocked as +3000 co-longshots. Here’s a look at how the bottom of the Kentucky Derby odds shape up, and the longshots that have the best chance to surprise in Saturday’s race. And sports bettors getting in on horse racing action for the first time should check out our Kentucky Derby betting guide to get up to date on everything you’ll need to know about making your Kentucky Derby picks.
2022 Kentucky Derby Odds
| Horse | Post Position | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Zandon | 10 | +300 |
| Epicenter | 3 | +350 |
| Messier | 6 | +800 |
| Mo Donegal | 1 | +1000 |
| White Abarrio | 15 | +1000 |
| Taiba | 12 | +1200 |
| Smile Happy | 5 | +2000 |
| Crown Pride | 7 | +2000 |
| Charge It | 8 | +2000 |
| Simplification | 13 | +2000 |
| Cyberknife | 16 | +2000 |
| Zozos | 19 | +2000 |
| Happy Jack | 2 | +3000 |
| Summer Is Tomorrow | 4 | +3000 |
| Tiz the Bomb | 9 | +3000 |
| Pioneer of Medina | 11 | +3000 |
| Barber Road | 14 | +3000 |
| Classic Causeway | 17 | +3000 |
| Tawny Port | 18 | +3000 |
| Ethereal Road | 20 | +3000 |
Odds as of May 5 at TVG
Longshots Starting on the Outside
Among the eight horses pegged as +3000 longshots, three will be starting on the extreme outside, including No. 17 Classic Causeway, No. 18 Tawny Port, and No. 20 Ethereal Road. But can any of these ponies extend a current trend that has seen three of the past seven Kentucky Derby winners start at post positions 15 through 20? Each of these horses have only a 3.23% implied probability chance of winning. But with little hope, comes the potential for a big payout.
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Classic Causeway on the Rebound
Classic Causeway claimed victory in three of his first five races, including recent wins at the Sam F Davis Stakes and the Tampa Bay Derby. However, the Bryan Lynch-trained colt turned in a career-worst 11th-place performance at the Florida Derby that dumped him to 11th in the Road to Kentucky Derby standings.
#ClassicCauseway (Giant's Causeway; @coolmoreamerica) looks relaxed and happy as he takes a leisurely gallop around #ChurchillDowns this morning. He is set to break from post 17 in the #KentuckyDerby on Saturday. No horse has ever won from post 17. @BloodHorse @KentuckyDerby pic.twitter.com/nrrxhe9Rfl
— Casey Laughter (@casey_laughter) May 5, 2022
With little explanation forthcoming on why he faltered so badly in the Florida Derby, Classic Causeway remains a risky pick regardless of his position in the Kentucky Derby odds. However, there is no denying his ability to start fast out of the gate. And if he can overcome his recent disappointment, Classic Causeway could be poised to be the first horse to win the Kentucky Derby from the No. 17 gate.
Tawny Port Showing Steady Improvement
A fifth-place finisher in his stakes race debut at the Risen Star, Tawny Port made strides with a second-place finish at the Jeff Ruby Steaks. The Brad Cox-trained colt also demonstrated his ability to compete from the outside at the Lexington Stakes, where he stalked the leaders from before storming to the third win of his career.
THE LEXINGTON STAKES
(ultima carrera clasificatoria para el Derby🌹)
•TAWNY PORT•
Brad Cox
Florent Geroux pic.twitter.com/iDIfwJrR88— Claudia Spadaro (@ClaudiaSpadaro) April 17, 2022
Things have not gone so well for Ethereal Road, who is set to start Saturday’s race from the 20-post. The progeny of seven-time stakes race winner Quality Road, Ethereal Road has failed to duplicate his sire’s success, going winless in three career stakes races, capped by a disappointing fourth-place performance in the Lexington Stakes. Indeed, this horse only managed to crack the field for Saturday’s race after one-eyed wonder Un Ojo was withdrawn.
Can Tiz the Bomb Get Past Holy Bull Disappointment?
The winner in his past two outings, Tiz the Bomb’s +3000 odds make him one of the best Kentucky Derby longshot bets to make. The Kenneth McPeek-trained colt turned in a dominant performance while pulling away from a crowded field at the Jeff Ruby Steaks, where he started from No. 7 gate.
Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes (G3)
1800m, $600,000
🇺🇸Turfway ParkTiz The Bomb (USA)
(3C Hit It A Bomb – Tiz The Key, by Tiznow)
J:Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr.
T: Kenneth G. McPeek
O:Magdalena Racing
B : @spendthriftfarm pic.twitter.com/IfTTobMX6F— 𝙒𝙤𝙧𝙡𝙙𝙍𝙖𝙘𝙞𝙣𝙜 (@WorldRacing1) April 2, 2022
Overall, Tiz the Bomb has claimed victory in five of seven outings, with his only misstep coming at the Holy Bull, where he finished a distant seventh. His poor performance in that race has brought into question his ability to compete on dirt, but McPeek has publicly defended his prized colt, stating that his shaky Holy Bull outing had more to do with positioning than surface. We’ll find out if that’s true on Saturday evening.
Happy Jack a Deserving Longshot
Happy Jack will be seeking redemption as a +3000 Kentucky Derby longshot. The Doug O’Neill-trained colt has yet to reach the winner’s circle in three career stakes race appearances, capped by a disappointing third-place finish at the Santa Anita Derby.
happy jack, who has been beaten a combined 50 lengths in his three stakes tries, is in the kentucky derby 🤮
— Averie Levanti (@averielevanti) April 16, 2022
Happy Jack has been plagued by slow starts. He failed to capitalize while starting on the rail at the San Felipe Stakes and Santa Anita Derby. A larger field and the opportunity to start alongside race favorite Epicenter could give Happy Jack a boost on Saturday evening. The historical success of horses starting the Kentucky Derby from the two-post may also entice sports bettors to take a flyer on Happy Jack. However, it is tough to include this horse among Kentucky Derby contenders, with a last-place finish more likely.
Kentucky Derby longshot pick: Tiz the Bomb to win (+3000)
Brush up on your Kentucky Derby terminology, learn all about pari-mutuel wagering and check out more of our expert Kentucky Derby predictions and analysis below.
- How to Bet the 2022 Kentucky 2022 Kentucky Derby
- Pedigree of Kentucky Derby Contenders
- Recent Form for 2022 Kentucky Derby Top Contenders
- History and Past Results for Jockeys and Trainers
- Opening Odds to Win Kentucky Derby on May 2 After Post Position Draw
Daniel has been writing about sports and sports betting for over 23 years. The seasoned pro has contributed to the likes of Sports Illustrated, Sportsnet, NESN, Bleacher Report, OddsShark, the Globe and Mail, and The Nation magazine.
