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Kentucky Derby Longshot Picks – Odds for Classic Causeway, Tawny Port, Tiz the Bomb & More Horses Who Can Make You Big Money

Daniel Coyle

by Daniel Coyle in Horse Racing News

May 5, 2022 · 11:53 AM PDT

Tiz the Bomb
May 4, 2022; Louisville, KY, USA; An exercise rider works Kentucky Derby entry Tiz The Bomb during morning workouts at Churchill Downs. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports
  • Eight horses sit knotted as betting longshots in the Kentucky Derby odds
  • Tiz the Bomb, Classic Causeway are among longshots seeking to overcome recent disappointing performances
  • Read on for all the odds and trends ahead of Saturday evening’s running of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs

With Saturday’s running of the 148th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky now just a couple of days away, the simmering rivalry between current betting favorites Zandon and Epicenter continues to be the biggest story of the week.

However, sports bettors searching for value in the odds to win this year’s Fastest Two Minutes in Sports should not overlook the potential value at the bottom of the odds board, where eight horses remain deadlocked as +3000 co-longshots. Here’s a look at how the bottom of the Kentucky Derby odds shape up, and the longshots that have the best chance to surprise in Saturday’s race. And sports bettors getting in on horse racing action for the first time should check out our Kentucky Derby betting guide to get up to date on everything you’ll need to know about making your Kentucky Derby picks.

2022 Kentucky Derby Odds

Horse Post Position Odds
Zandon 10 +300
Epicenter 3 +350
Messier 6 +800
Mo Donegal 1 +1000
White Abarrio 15 +1000
Taiba 12 +1200
Smile Happy 5 +2000
Crown Pride 7 +2000
Charge It 8 +2000
Simplification 13 +2000
Cyberknife 16 +2000
Zozos 19 +2000
Happy Jack 2 +3000
Summer Is Tomorrow 4 +3000
Tiz the Bomb 9 +3000
Pioneer of Medina 11 +3000
Barber Road 14 +3000
Classic Causeway 17 +3000
Tawny Port 18 +3000
Ethereal Road 20 +3000

Odds as of May 5 at TVG

Longshots Starting on the Outside

Among the eight horses pegged as +3000 longshots, three will be starting on the extreme outside, including No. 17 Classic Causeway, No. 18 Tawny Port, and No. 20 Ethereal Road. But can any of these ponies extend a current trend that has seen three of the past seven Kentucky Derby winners start at post positions 15 through 20? Each of these horses have only a 3.23% implied probability chance of winning. But with little hope, comes the potential for a big payout.

Classic Causeway on the Rebound

Classic Causeway claimed victory in three of his first five races, including recent wins at the Sam F Davis Stakes and the Tampa Bay Derby. However, the Bryan Lynch-trained colt turned in a career-worst 11th-place performance at the Florida Derby that dumped him to 11th in the Road to Kentucky Derby standings.

With little explanation forthcoming on why he faltered so badly in the Florida Derby, Classic Causeway remains a risky pick regardless of his position in the Kentucky Derby odds. However, there is no denying his ability to start fast out of the gate. And if he can overcome his recent disappointment, Classic Causeway could be poised to be the first horse to win the Kentucky Derby from the No. 17 gate.

Tawny Port Showing Steady Improvement

A fifth-place finisher in his stakes race debut at the Risen Star, Tawny Port made strides with a second-place finish at the Jeff Ruby Steaks. The Brad Cox-trained colt also demonstrated his ability to compete from the outside at the Lexington Stakes, where he stalked the leaders from before storming to the third win of his career.

Things have not gone so well for Ethereal Road, who is set to start Saturday’s race from the 20-post. The progeny of seven-time stakes race winner Quality Road, Ethereal Road has failed to duplicate his sire’s success, going winless in three career stakes races, capped by a disappointing fourth-place performance in the Lexington Stakes. Indeed, this horse only managed to crack the field for Saturday’s race after one-eyed wonder Un Ojo was withdrawn.


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Can Tiz the Bomb Get Past Holy Bull Disappointment?

The winner in his past two outings, Tiz the Bomb’s +3000 odds make him one of the best Kentucky Derby longshot bets to make. The Kenneth McPeek-trained colt turned in a dominant performance while pulling away from a crowded field at the Jeff Ruby Steaks, where he started from No. 7 gate.

Overall, Tiz the Bomb has claimed victory in five of seven outings, with his only misstep coming at the Holy Bull, where he finished a distant seventh. His poor performance in that race has brought into question his ability to compete on dirt, but McPeek has publicly defended his prized colt, stating that his shaky Holy Bull outing had more to do with positioning than surface. We’ll find out if that’s true on Saturday evening.

Happy Jack a Deserving Longshot

Happy Jack will be seeking redemption as a +3000 Kentucky Derby longshot. The Doug O’Neill-trained colt has yet to reach the winner’s circle in three career stakes race appearances, capped by a disappointing third-place finish at the Santa Anita Derby.

Happy Jack has been plagued by slow starts. He failed to capitalize while starting on the rail at the San Felipe Stakes and Santa Anita Derby. A larger field and the opportunity to start alongside race favorite Epicenter could give Happy Jack a boost on Saturday evening. The historical success of horses starting the Kentucky Derby from the two-post may also entice sports bettors to take a flyer on Happy Jack. However, it is tough to include this horse among Kentucky Derby contenders, with a last-place finish more likely.

Kentucky Derby longshot pick: Tiz the Bomb to win (+3000)

Brush up on your Kentucky Derby terminology, learn all about pari-mutuel wagering and check out more of our expert Kentucky Derby predictions and analysis below.


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