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BetOnline Offering Hornets at +275 to Win Southeast Division; Is There Value?

Malik Monk
Malik Monk and the Hornets have struggled this season. Photo by Keith Allison (flickr) [CC License].
  • The top three teams in the Southeast Division are separated by just one game
  • The Charlotte Hornets are offering the biggest payout of the three at +275
  • The Hornets have lost 10 of their last 13 games entering Friday night

While most of the divisional races in the NBA are not close, the Southeast Division has three teams that are within one game of the top spot. The Miami Heat, Orlando Magic, and Charlotte Hornets are all vying for the divisional crown, but the Hornets – who are just a game back – are priced at +275 at BetOnline. Are they a good value bet?

2019 Southeast Division Odds

Team 2019 Southeast Division Odds at BetOnline
Miami Heat +170
Orlando Magic +200
Charlotte Hornets +275
Washington Wizards +600
Atlanta Hawks +10000

*Odds taken on 03/08/19

Don’t Bet on Charlotte

Hearing the words “betting” and “Charlotte Hornets” in the same sentence concern me unless we’re referring to betting against them. This is a team that hasn’t been able to figure things out under Michael Jordan – no matter how many high first-round draft picks they feed into their roster.

Charlotte is 29-35 on the season, but they are actually just 8-4 against teams in their own abysmal division. That means they have a lousy .403 winning percentage against the rest of the NBA.

Charlotte is 29-35 on the season, but they are actually just 8-4 against teams in their own abysmal division.

The Hornets have 18 games left but just three against their division. Let’s assume they split their two home games and maintain their averages against everyone else, that’s just seven more wins. This is a bad division, but I can’t see Charlotte making the playoffs with just 36 or 37 wins.

Home-Court Disadvantage

Another way to crunch the numbers is to look at the home-away splits. Charlotte has played the most home games of the three teams in the mix. They have just seven home games left and 11 on the road.

Charlotte has a .321 road winning percentage and a .588 winning percentage at home. If you do the math, we’re still looking at just seven more wins for this team. Miami has played just 32 home games and Orlando has played 33, so they’ll have more opportunities in front of their own audience.

Tracking the Trajectories

My other main concern with the Hornets is the direction they’re going. This is a team that enters Friday’s action having lost five of six and 10 of 13. The Heat and Magic, meanwhile, appear to be trending upwards.

The Heat are coming off a win at Charlotte where they held the Hornets to just 84 points. That marked their fourth win in five nights, which also includes wins over Golden State and Brooklyn. Their only loss was a three-point defeat at Houston.

As for the Orlando Magic, they have lost two in a row but on a greater scale, have won 10 of their last 15 games. They also have an easier upcoming schedule than Charlotte, as the Magic will get to host Memphis, Cleveland, Dallas, New York, and Atlanta.

With the Hornets being a hard-pass for me, the decision is down to the two Florida teams. My issue with Miami is the upcoming schedule as they have 10 games remaining against teams who would currently be in the playoffs. That being the case, I’ll take a flier on the Orlando Magic with this prop.

Pick: Orlando Magic (+200)

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