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Gonzaga vs Arkansas Odds, Lines, Picks – March Madness Sweet 16 Preview

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in College Basketball

Mar 24, 2022 · 7:45 AM PDT

Aaron Nembhard and Drew Timme smiling
Gonzaga guard Andrew Nembhard (3) celebrates with forward Drew Timme, left, at the end of a second-round NCAA college basketball tournament game against Memphis, Saturday, March 19, 2022, in Portland, Ore. Gonzaga won 82-78. (AP Photo/Craig Mitchelldyer)
  • Top-seeded Gonzaga Bulldogs battle the Arkansas Razorbacks for a spot in the Elite Eight
  • The Bulldogs rank top 10 in KenPom’s offensive and defensive efficiency this season
  • Read below for the Gonzaga vs Arkansas odds, analysis, and betting prediction

Truth be told, the top-seeded Gonzaga Bulldogs haven’t put together an entire 40 minutes so far in the NCAA Tournament.

You can bet the 4th-seeded Arkansas Razorbacks will use the duration of the matchup to turn this one into a slugfest, when the two schools meet in Sweet 16 play.

It all gets underway Thursday from the Chase Center in San Francisco. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:09pm ET, in a game that can be seen live on CBS.

The winner of this West Region battle advances to the Elite Eight,

Gonzaga vs Arkansas Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Gonzaga -550 -9.5 (-110) O 155 (-110)
Arkansas +400 +9.5 (-110) U 155 (-110)

Odds as of March 24th at Caesars Sportsbook. See all available Caesars Sportsbook promo codes.ย 

The ‘Zags still own the best NCAA Tournament champion odds and are 9-point favorites against the ‘Hogs in this one, with a total set at 155.

 

Hopefully you’ve tasted victory in your tourney journey while arriving at the Sweet 16. If you haven’t yet, make sure you take advantage of the many March Madness betting bonuses, with easy wins waiting for you to cash in.

Still unsure? Learn more about the types of March Madness bets you can make, and get started today.

Gonzaga Bulldogs Betting Analysis

After pulling away from Georgia State in Round 1 with a 53-point second half, the Bulldogs had their March Madness scare in Round 2, barely sneaking by the 9-seed Memphis Tigers 82-78.

A top-10 candidate in the Wooden Awards odds, Drew Timme was the driving force in Round 2, scoring 21 of his game-high 25 to help Gonzaga overcome a 10-point halftime deficit. He also added 14 rebounds.

Guard Aaron Nembhard had 23 points and five assists, including a crisp 5-for-10 mark from downtown against Memphis. Rasir Bolton had 17 points and two assists. They were the only three Bulldogs to hit double-figure scoring.

The highest scoring team in the NCAA this year, Gonzaga’s strength was it’s depth: they hadย fiveย players averaging better than 10 points per game on the season.

With a sturdier defensive opponent coming up, the Sweet 16 would be a great time for an all-around performance that was the best roster in college hoops this year.

Arkansas Razorbacks Betting Analysis

Survival was the only thing on the Razorbacks’ mind in a Round 2 slog against New Mexico State. When the dust settled, the ‘Hogs picked up a 53-48 victory.

Arkansas was a dreadful 14-for-51 shooting from the field, a 27.5% clip, including 3-for-16 from three-point range (18.8%).

The offensive statistics are terrifying when stacking up to the ‘Zags, who, for all their offensive prowess, still rank ninth in defensive efficiency on KenPom.

Fortunately, Arkansas leaned heavily on their best offensive trait: free throws. They hit 22-for-25 from the charity stripe. During the regular season, no team shot more freebies (808) orย  made more (613) in the NCAA.

Their bread-and-butter is their defense — they’re 14th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive metric. Arkansas held the Aggies to 34% shooting from the field, including a 6-for-26 mark from downtown (23.1%).

JD Notae has been Arkansas’ leading scorer in the tourney, posting 17.5 points per game. but he hasn’t shot better than 31.3% in both wins.

Gonzaga vs Arkansas Pick

Though both teams can defend, these teams play with pace. The Razorbacks rank 28th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo, so they can definitely keep up with the ‘Zags, who are sixth.

But it’s major advantage Bulldogs on offense. Arkansas wants to attack the hoop and get to the stripe, but Gonzaga’s interior D is enforced by the 6-foot-10 Timme and 7-foot freshman Chet Holmgren, who had seven blocks in a Round 1 vs Georgia State.

Betting Arkansas here is risky; the Razorbacks might be too one-dimensional to make an adjustment, as they rank a distant 215th in three-point attempts and 315th in three-point percentage (30.5%).

Arkansas is just 1-6 this year when they allow teams to top 46% shooting. On the year, the Bulldogs have only shot lower than 46% four times this season.

Looking at the Sweet 16 betting trends, since 2001, No. 1 seeds are 24-7 straight up vs No. 4 seeds, but just 17-13-1 against the spread.

And yet, Gonzaga’s been just a little shaky this tourney to feel comfy giving all those points. They’re also 0-2 ATS in the tourney. Instead, trust Arkansas’ shooting struggles to continue, keeping the total under.

Pick: UNDER 155 (-110)


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