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Kansas vs Providence Odds, Lines, Spread for Sweet 16

George Nassios

by George Nassios in College Basketball

Mar 25, 2022 · 10:45 AM PDT

Kansas guard Ochai Agbaji running the Jayhawks offense
Kansas guard Ochai Agbaji handles the ball during a second-round game against Creighton in the NCAA college basketball tournament in Fort Worth, Texas, Saturday, March, 19, 2022. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
  • No. 1 seed Kansas takes on No. 4 Providence in Sweet 16 action on Friday, March 25th
  • The Jayhawks are riding a seven game winning streak coming into this one
  • Read below for the Providence vs Kansas odds, analysis, and betting prediction

This is a Sweet 16 matchup that’s got both Providence (27-5, 19-13 ATS) and Kansas (30-6, 18-18 ATS) licking their lips as they look at the March Madness bracket in the Midwest region and see who will be on tap next. The winner of this game goes on to face the winner between 10 seed Miami and 11 seed Iowa State in the Elite 8.

First things first, the Jayhawks tip off against the Friars at 7:29 pm ET on Friday, March 25th from the house that Michael Jordan built, the United Center in Chicago. This game will be broadcast on TBS.

This is the 32nd Sweet 16 appearance for Kansas, 4th all-time in that category, while it’s only the 6th time Providence has made it this far and first time this century. Let’s dissect this matchup and look at the odds while giving you our best bet and prediction for this matchup.

Providence vs Kansas Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Providence Friars +245 +7 (-110) O 141.5 (-108)
Kansas Jayhawks -305 -7 (-110) U 141.5 (-112)

Odds as of March 25th at Barstool Sportsbook.

 

The Jayhawks look to have the easiest path of any remaining number one seed to advance to next weekend and have the best Final Four odds because of their next two potential opponents. Kansas have been made -7.5 point favorites against Providence in this Sweet 16 matchup.

Providence Friars Betting Analysis

Being treated as an underdog is a situation that has suited the Friars just fine this season, as they were 8-1 against the spread when their opponent was given better odds to win and they narrowly missed being a perfect 9-0 in those contests. They lost 89-84 to Villanova on February 15th, failing to cover by just 2 points.

Providence has displayed toughness all season and an ability to succeed in close games, winning 16 contests by single digit margins, but some people would call that luck. According to the KenPom rankings, they actually had the best luck rating of any team in the nation. It’s served them well so far, but how long can that last?

A good March Madness betting strategy  includes looking at advanced stats and analytics, but the Friars have defied that logic so far this season.

They defeated 13 seed South Dakota State and 12 seed Richmond to get to this stage and those wins were heavily aided by out-rebounding those teams by a combined margin of 79-59 and holding those lower seeded squads both under 40% shooting from the field. That will be tough to repeat against a Kansas squad that shot 47.9% this season.

Kansas Jayhawks Betting Analysis

Kansas survived a bit of a scare against Creighton in the second round, but held the Bluejays off for a 79-72 win to keep their odds to win the NCAA Tournament alive. That was the first time the Jayhawks didn’t cover the spread in their last six games.

Kansas is led by 6’5 guard, Ochai Agbaji, who paced them with 19.3 points per game this season and has managed to keep his name amongst the top five in the Wooden Awards odds for basically the whole season. He hit 40% from beyond the arc this season and is a threat to score from anywhere on the floor.

Besides Agbaji, Kansas does have a balanced attack with three other players averaging double figures in points this year. They had the 3rd toughest strength of schedule rating this season according to KenPom, but they have passed every test along the way so far, sharing the Big 12 regular season title and then winning the conference tournament.

Providence vs Kansas Pick

With one of the top coaches in the country and a squad full of experience, the Jayhawks will be a tough team for any underdog to topple in this tournament.

Looking at the Sweet 16 betting trends, since 2001, number 1 seeds are 24-7 straight up vs number 4 seeds, and 17-13-1 against the spread.

There are a few other tendencies to note when deciding how to bet on this contest:

  • The Jayhawks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite
  • The Friars are 0-4 ATS in their last four Friday games
  • Kansas is 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven Friday games

Although Providence has had success covering the majority of their games as an underdog this season, all signs point to their luck running out against the Midwest region’s number 1 seed on Friday, so pick the Kansas Jayhawks to cover the spread.

Pick: Kansas -7.5 (-110)


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