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Iowa State vs Miami Odds and Picks – March Madness Sweet 16

Chris Wassel

by Chris Wassel in College Basketball

Mar 25, 2022 · 10:58 AM PDT

Iowa State's Izaiah Brockington getting ready to shoot
Iowa State's Izaiah Brockington during the second half of a first round NCAA college basketball tournament game against LSU Friday, March 18, 2022, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)
  • Miami (FL) is currently a 2.5-point favorite over Iowa State on Friday in an NCAA Sweet 16 Game
  • The winner on Friday advances to the Elite Eight on Sunday.
  • A look at the Iowa State vs Miami odds and matchup can be found along with a prediction

Iowa State goes up against Miami (FL) in a Sweet 16 game Friday, at United Center in Chicago, Illinois. Game time is 9:59pm ET, and can be seen live on TBS.

The Cyclones (22-12) are seeded 11th in the Midwest region. Like Miami (FL), the 10th seed, they were unranked in the Final AP Poll.

Iowa State vs Miami (FL) Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Iowa State +130 +3.5 (-110) Over 131.5 (-110)
Florida -155 -3.5 (-110) Under 131.5 (-110)

Odds as of March 25th at BetMGM Sportsbook

Miami (FL) is a 3.5-point favorite (opened at +1) over Iowa State and, at -155 on the moneyline, has an implied win probability of 60.78%.

Iowa State surprised LSU by five points and then beat Wisconsin also by five points on the road to the Sweet 16. This was after getting blown out by 31 in their conference tournament to Texas Tech. Miami (FL) escaped against USC in the opening round then blew out two-seed Auburn by 18 in the second round.

The winner moves on to the Elite Eight of the March Madness bracket on Sunday against either Kansas or Providence. The Cyclones were +10000 in the Midwest Region Final Four odds pre-tournament and are now +575 as of press time.

Iowa State Betting Outlook

Few expected this as Iowa State saw its March Madness championship odds shorten from +20000 down to +10000. This was also consecutive times where the Cyclones covered the spread. They had not done so three times in a row since Thanksgiving.

Senior guard Izaiah Brockington leads Iowa State with a 17.1 point-per-game average. He shoots 47% from the field while playing 34.5 minutes per game. Those minutes have stayed up as Brockington continues to step up offensively and particularly defensively.

Brockington has been very reliable over his last 15 games. The guard topped 10 points 14 times in that span, and also posted eight games with six or more rebounds. Brockington averages 6.9 boards per game on the season.

The shooting guard helped Iowa State keep an even keel against the Big-Ten regular champion Wisconsin Badgers. Brockington helped lead the charge as the Cyclones held the Badgers to 23 second-half points on an absurd 29.8% shooting.

The victory was probably more unexpected for Iowa State as Gabe Kalscheur came out of nowhere to fire off 22 points last weekend. That included 10-for-19 shooting which had not been seen since early in the season when the Cyclones reeled off 12 straight victories.

The 11th-seeded Iowa State team is one of the best in the nation defensively. Their points-per-game allowed is just 62.3 which ranks 20th in the nation. A defensive rating of 92.2 puts them at 14th among all NCAA D1 teams.

The defense has been vital as the Cyclones can frustrate teams with their defensive style. Iowa State misses a lot of shots but they alter a lot of opposing shots as well.

It is not the most appealing of styles but coach T.J. Otzelberger has this Cyclones team to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2016. This coming on the heels of a 2-22 disaster where Iowa State went 0-18 in the Big 12.

Miami (FL) Betting Outlook

The Miami Hurricanes arguably squeaked out a win against USC on their Round 1 matchup. However, their Round 2 was expected to be their undoing.

Miami (FL) had other plans as they held one of the top teams in the nation (Auburn) to just 61 points. They blew open what was a very tight and close game (33-32 at halftime) as their starting five outscored Auburn 46-29.

Isaiah Wong buoyed the charge as he transitioned from playmaker to shooter. Wong had 21 points in all to go along with six rebounds. Charlie Moore hit both of his three-point attempts in the second half but chipped in nine rebounds and eight assists. That was after his dramatics versus USC.

This was a complete departure from the Hurricanes team that was treading water in the first game and a half. The Hurricanes shot  32-for-66 (48.5%) from two-point range. Miami shot 12-for-15 from the foul line.

The strength in Miami’s “starting five” or “magical misfits” is their athleticism. They are not the type of team that will shoot lights out from three-point range (20% against Auburn, 7.1% against USC). Overall, they were just 4-for-29.

Miami (FL) must find ways to force their way inside and take fewer long-distance shots (via movement and transition). Their depth could be an issue late against an athletic Cyclones team.

Iowa State vs Miami (FL) Prediction

The game will be very tight. The best March Madness betting strategy here is to lay the points with the Cyclones.

The Pick: Iowa +3.5 (-110)

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