Upcoming Match-ups

Updated SEC Title Odds See Alabama & Georgia Get Even Shorter, While Florida & LSU Fall

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in College Football

Updated Jan 6, 2023 · 7:22 AM PST

Alabama's football stadium
Can Nick Saban lead Alabama to another SEC Championship? Photo by Ron Cogswell (flickr).
  • Alabama’s odds to win the SEC have gone from -150 to -180
  • Georgia has pushed Alabama to their limits in the last two meetings
  • The Florida Gators and LSU Tigers are still too far behind the top-tier teams

The Alabama Crimson Tide and Georgia Bulldogs have been the top two teams in the SEC over the last two years and the oddsmakers are expecting more of the same. Their odds to win the SEC have shortened as Alabama’s gone from -150 to -180, while Georgia’s gone from +270 to +260.

Do any of the second-tier teams which are mostly paying out at a higher price now, have a shot to surprise?

Odds to Win 2019 SEC Title

Team 2019 SEC Odds
Alabama -200
Georgia +250
Florida +1400
LSU +1400
Auburn +2800
Mississippi State +3300
Kentucky +3300
Texas A&M +3300
South Carolina +8000
Tennessee +8000
Ole Miss +15000
Vanderbilt +15000

Tide Have An Easy Schedule

Other than getting spanked in the National Championship game by Clemson, there aren’t many criticisms that can be directed Alabama’s way. They were incredibly dominant last season, winning their regular season games by an average score of 49-13.8. Yes, you read that right: they won by an average of 35 points per game.

Not much will change in 2019 as their schedule is an absolute breeze. In non-conference play, they’ll take on Due, New Mexico State and Southern Miss. In conference play, they’ll host LSU, but will have to travel to South Carolina, Texas A&M, Mississippi State and Auburn. Outside of the Aggies, they probably won’t break a sweat.

YouTube video

Part of winning the SEC is getting to the championship game. Exactly who is going to finish with a better record than them in the SEC West? There’s no one that’s ready to do it.

What About LSU?

Of course, there’s the Aggies (who are a year or two away) and the Tigers (who many feel are ready now), but these teams are way behind the Tide. LSU couldn’t even score a single point against Alabama last year and that game was at home.

YouTube video

LSU has a much tougher schedule to deal with as out of conference, they have to visit Texas. In conference play, they’ll have to take on Florida and Texas A&M, and visit Alabama. They’ll need Joe Burrow and the offense to have an incredible year. I’m not buying it, which means it’s too much to ask for them to beat out Alabama.

Bulldogs Are The Class Of The East

Georgia finished 11-3 last season but both Kentucky and Florida were 10-win teams, so it’s not as if the Bulldogs ran away with it. But Georgia only lost once prior to the SEC Championship Game, so they are a cut above.

YouTube video

And they’re the one team that seems to be able to play with Alabama. They were up early in the SEC Championship Game last season and nearly beat them in the National Championship Game in 2017 (lost in overtime). Head coach Kirby Smart not only recruits well but gets this team to execute well on both sides of the ball.

What About The Gators?

Florida could – repeat, could – potentially be closing the gap on Georgia. One reason we can say that is they earned some quality wins last season against No. 5 LSU and No. 23 Mississippi State and are expecting their offense to be better.

The Gators defense was already ferocious and if Dan Mullen can fix the offense, this team could have the balance that so many others in the SEC lack and which is necessary to compete with Alabama and Georgia.

YouTube video

Would I bet on Feleipe Franks actually living up to the hype and the offense actually delivering? No.

You also have to consider the schedule as they have to go to LSU, to Kentucky, to South Carolina and face Georgia at a neutral site. Georgia’s schedule is easier, so they’re still the better bet.

What’s The Best Bet?

I’m all-in on Alabama. Both Alabama and Georgia have very easy schedules – as easy as they get in the SEC, anyway – so I expect to see them both in the SEC Championship. Georgia has pushed Alabama to the brink but they’ve yet to solve them. I expect Nick Saban to be better adjusted to facing the Bulldogs this time around.

After getting embarrassed in the National Championship game last year, look for Alabama and Saban to be flawless all the way into the College Football Playoff this year.


SDB’s college football conference championship coverage

Author Image