- Boise State is an odds-on favorite to win the 2019 Mountain West football championship
- The Broncos have won at least 10 games in 16 of the last 20 years and are the third-winningest program in College Football since 2009
- At short odds, is Bryan Harsin’s team the best value bet to win the Mountain West title this season?
There are few teams in all of college football as consistent as Boise State. Year after year, the Broncos open the season as the Mountain West favorites and this season is no exception.
2019 Mountain West Conference Odds
|Team||2019 Mountain West Conference Odds|
|San Diego State||+450|
|San Jose State||+10000|
*Odds taken 07/11/19
Their average 2019 conference title odds are far shorter than any of their rivals, and for good reason. They’re the only team inside the top-40 in the preseason S&P rankings and they have the shortest National Championship odds by far of any Mountain West program.
A Model of Consistency
Over the last 20 seasons, Boise State has won at least 10 games 16 times. They’ve made 16 straight Bowl Game appearances, the fifth-longest active streak in college football, and since 2009, only two teams have more wins than the Broncos.
College football’s 10 winningest programs since 2009
2. Ohio State
3. Boise State
8. Florida State
— secsportstalk (@secsportstalk1) July 10, 2019
They’re projected to be a favorite in each of their 12 games this season and have a win probability of at least 83% in nine of those contests. Fresno State and San Diego State, their main Mountain West competition over the last six seasons, are both rebuilding making Boise State’s path to another conference title all the more probable.
Probability of Winning the 2019 MWC Title According to ESPN’s FPI:
1. Boise State – 62%
2. Fresno St – 10.2%
3. AFA – 8.2%
4. SDSU – 8.1%
5. Hawaii – 3.6%
6. Utah St – 3.4%
7. Nevada – 1.4%
8. Wyoming – 1.1%
9. UNLV – 1.0%
10. CSU – 0.7%
11. SJSU – 0.2%
12. New Mex – 0.1% pic.twitter.com/lvn8ETGhl5
— WestCoastCFB (@WestCoastCFB) July 6, 2019
ESPN’s FPI gives them a 62% probability of winning the Mountain West, making the Broncos the third largest Conference favorites in all of College Football, behind only Clemson and Oklahoma.
A Football Factory
Boise State lost its starting quarterback, running back and top two receivers from its 2018 team yet are still projected to finish with a higher S&P ranking than a season ago. Their offensive line, defensive line and wide receiving corps are all ranked first by Athlon Sports and their secondary is returning six of seven starters.
— Boise State Football (@BroncoSportsFB) September 30, 2018
The quarterback position remains a mystery, but with three quality starting options and plethora of talent at the skilled positions, the offense isn’t expected to face much regression. They’re the only top-7 Mountain West contender that’s expected to outperform their 2018 S&P rating and the only one projected to win more than 7 games.
Stick with the Proven Commodity
With the exception of Boise State, the rest of the Mountain West Conference is down this year, and none of the other contenders have the talent or depth to justify a long shot wager.
The Broncos easily have the highest ceiling of the group and even if we give some leeway to ESPN’s FPI projection, a bet on Boise State would still be a positive expected wager at -110, as long as their Conference win probability stayed above 53%.
SDB’s college football conference championship coverage
- AAC: UCF Is +125 Chalk in the 2019 AAC Conference Title Odds; Memphis Next at +300
- ACC: 2019 ACC Title Odds Give Clemson (-350) Almost an 80% Chance
- Big 12: The Big 12 Conference Title Odds Set Oklahoma as -125 Favorite
- Big Ten: 2019 Big Ten Odds Indicate Ohio State (+110) Is a Step Ahead of Michigan (+240)
- C-USA: C-USA Deemed the Tightest Title Race in the Country
- MAC: MAC Conference Title Odds Favor Toledo, But Give Six Teams a Reasonable Shot
- Mountain West: 2019 Mountain West Title Shaping Up as Boise State vs the Field
- Pac-12: Utah Gaining on Favorites Washington, Oregon in 2019 Pac-12 Conference Title Odds
- SEC: Updated SEC Title Odds See Alabama & Georgia Get Even Shorter
- Sun Belt: App State Is a -175 Favorite to Win 2019 Sun Belt Title