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2019 Mountain West Title Shaping Up as Boise State vs the Field; Broncos’ Odds Listed at -110

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in College Football

Jul 12, 2019 · 9:25 AM PDT

Boise State Broncos football team practicing at Albertsons Stadium.
Trying to win on the "Smurf Turf" at Boise State is no laughing matter for the rest of the Mountain West, though the Broncos did lose two games at Albertsons Stadium in 2018. Photo by Angie H from Nampa (wikimedia commons) [CC License].
  • Boise State is an odds-on favorite to win the 2019 Mountain West football championship
  • The Broncos have won at least 10 games in 16 of the last 20 years and are the third-winningest program in College Football since 2009
  • At short odds, is Bryan Harsin’s team the best value bet to win the Mountain West title this season?

There are few teams in all of college football as consistent as Boise State. Year after year, the Broncos open the season as the Mountain West favorites and this season is no exception.

2019 Mountain West Conference Odds

Team 2019 Mountain West Conference Odds
Boise State -110
Fresno State +400
San Diego State +450
Utah State +800
Air Force +1200
Nevada +1800
Wyoming +3300
Hawaii +3300
New Mexico +6600
Colorado State +8000
UNLV +8000
San Jose State +10000

*Odds taken 07/11/19

Their average 2019 conference title odds are far shorter than any of their rivals, and for good reason. They’re the only team inside the top-40 in the preseason S&P rankings and they have the shortest National Championship odds by far of any Mountain West program.

A Model of Consistency

Over the last 20 seasons, Boise State has won at least 10 games 16 times. They’ve made 16 straight Bowl Game appearances, the fifth-longest active streak in college football, and since 2009, only two teams have more wins than the Broncos.

They’re projected to be a favorite in each of their 12 games this season and have a win probability of at least 83% in nine of those contests. Fresno State and San Diego State, their main Mountain West competition over the last six seasons, are both rebuilding making Boise State’s path to another conference title all the more probable.

ESPN’s FPI gives them a 62% probability of winning the Mountain West, making the Broncos the third largest Conference favorites in all of College Football, behind only Clemson and Oklahoma.

A Football Factory

Boise State lost its starting quarterback, running back and top two receivers from its 2018 team yet are still projected to finish with a higher S&P ranking than a season ago. Their offensive line, defensive line and wide receiving corps are all ranked first by Athlon Sports and their secondary is returning six of seven starters.

The quarterback position remains a mystery, but with three quality starting options and plethora of talent at the skilled positions, the offense isn’t expected to face much regression. They’re the only top-7 Mountain West contender that’s expected to outperform their 2018 S&P rating and the only one projected to win more than 7 games.

Stick with the Proven Commodity

With the exception of Boise State, the rest of the Mountain West Conference is down this year, and none of the other contenders have the talent or depth to justify a long shot wager.

The Broncos easily have the highest ceiling of the group and even if we give some leeway to ESPN’s FPI projection, a bet on Boise State would still be a positive expected wager at -110, as long as their Conference win probability stayed above 53%.

SDB’s college football conference championship coverage

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