NFL Computer Picks for Super Bowl 2023 Compared to Expert Picks
- The 2022-23 NFL season comes down to Sunday between the Chiefs and Eagles and we’re comparing the SBD computer picks and our experts’ picks against the spread for the big game
- SBD’s score-predicting formula has been on fire during the postseason. Will it continue in the Super Bowl?
- See its’ computer pick for Super Bowl 57 as well as SBD’s expert picks below
With just one game left in the NFL season, we have one more crack at winning big in the NFL. With a plethora of ways to make your Chiefs vs Eagles picks, there is no shortage of ways to get down some action. For our purposes here, we’re focusing on our SBD formula pick for a Super Bowl winner, compared to our top expert Super Bowl picks.
Using a variety of team and player stats, trends, and some injury info, the SBD formula has predicted scores for every NFL game. Using the margin of victory and ATS margin of victory for each game, the formula’s scores can translate into NFL computer picks for the playoffs and Super Bowl. The SBD score-predicting formula was created by SBD’s Editor-in-Chief Matt McEwan.
Let’s dive into what the SBD computer picks formula is choosing for the winner and over and under for the Super Bowl, while also comparing what our experts are predicting when it comes to their expert picks against the spread, correct score and top prop picks.
Computer Picks for Super Bowl | Expert Picks for Super Bowl
NFL Computer Picks for Super Bowl 57
SportsBettingDime’s score-predicting formula went a combined 19-5 during the NFL Playoffs and would’ve made you a killing had you even blindly followed the formula this postseason.
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This year’s Super Bowl spread has remained pretty stagnant with the Eagles favored by 1.5-points to lift the Lombardi Trophy in Arizona and -125 favorites in the Super Bowl odds.
What does our formula predict? Well first, let’s look back at a postseason record that has gone 9-3 in against the spread picks and 10-2 on totals.
That’s a 75-percent record ATS and 83-percent record on over/unders. Combine those predictions together and we’re looking at a 79.2-percent NFL Playoff record.
My @SBD formula goes …
▪️0-2 ATS in conf championships
▪️2-0 on totalsNow …
▪️9-3 ATS in the playoffs
▪️10-2 on totals in the playoffsLet’s finish the season strong https://t.co/xCLrVZHFn5
— Matt McEwan (@SBD_Matt) January 30, 2023
Assuming you had bet $100 on each of those outcomes and at -110 odds, you would have won $1,729 on those 19 wins, giving back $500 on the losses, and would be sitting with a cool $1,229 of profit heading into the Super Bowl. Not bad!
Will the formula continue with its’ success in the big game? To start with, the predicted score falls about right in line with what sportsbooks have lined the game at, by predicting an Eagles win by 2.6 points.
- Kansas City Chiefs: 23.3
- Philadelphia Eagles: 25.9
That predicted score is just 1.1 points over the Eagles’ current spread of 1.5 points so the formula is predicting the Eagles to just barely cover the spread.
When it comes to the total points for the Super Bowl in over/under betting, once again the SBD Formula’s predicted total is falling right in line with where the total is sitting right now. A predicted score of Eagles 25.9 – 23.3 gives us a total of 49.2.
That falls just under the predicted total at USA betting sites of 51.
SBD Formula’s Super Bowl Picks:
- Moneyline Pick: Philadelphia Eagles
- ATS Pick: Eagles -1.5
- Total Pick: Under 51
Expert Picks for 2023 Super Bowl
SportsBettingDime’s experts have been submitting winning NFL picks all season. They have each shared their predicted score for the Super Bowl, best picks against the spread, and favorite Super Bowl prop. You can jump to one of them below or continue scrolling to all fo their Chiefs vs Eagles picks.
Ryan Metivier | Zach Reger | Bob Duff | Brady Trettenero
Ryan Metivier – Editor
- Super Bowl Predicted Score: Eagles 27-24
- Best Bet: Eagles -1.5
- Favorite Super Bowl Prop Bet: Eagles to have more possession (-140)
In a battle of two number-one seeds who each finished the regular season 14-3, it’s no wonder we have one of the shortest Super Bowl spreads in history here. On one hand, the Eagles’ are likely the better overall team. But the Chiefs have the league’s best player and MVP in Patrick Mahomes. Both Mahomes and Eagles’ QB Jalen Hurts are less than 100 percent heading into this finale. That leaves some big question marks, but also makes it hard to envision either team running away from the other.
Therefore I’m backing a close game but giving the edge to the Eagles. Mahomes will do enough to keep the Chiefs within striking distance. When Philly faced competent quarterbacks (and it didn’t happen), but when they did, Jared Goff, Aaron Rodgers and Dak Prescott all put up over 30 points. In fact, so did Taylor Heinicke. But, the Eagles just look like the more well-rounded team; third in YPG on offense and second in YPG allowed on defense. They were third overall in DVOA, third in offensive DVOA and sixth in defensive DVOA. The Chiefs were fourth, first and 17th respectively in DVOA. The Eagles had a ridiculous 70 sacks in the regular season (first in sack rate) this year and should be finding ways to pressure Mahomes all day as the team with the second-highest pressure rate.
When it comes to my top prop, I think this one has a clear path to cashing and it makes sense. Win or lose, if the Eagles are to win on Sunday they will look to control the clock. Doing so would mean plenty of running. Something they excel at and rely on, being the highest run-rate team in the league. The Eagles were eighth in the league in an average time of possession with 31:11, with KC not far behind at 30:08. The Eagles’ path to victory comes on the ground and I’ll bet them to hold the possession edge at -140 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Zach Reger- Social Media Manager
- Super Bowl Predicted Score: Chiefs 27-21
- Best Bet: Chiefs +1.5 (-110)
- Favorite Super Bowl Prop Bet: Dallas Goedert over 4.5 receptions (-135)
In a Super Bowl that should be close and exciting, I will give the edge to the more experienced team. The Eagles have cruised to the Super Bowl without being tested. They beat the Giants 38-7 then defeated the quarterback-less 49ers 31-7. Philadelphia is definitely a talented team and deserves to be in the big game, but we have yet to see how they perform in a close, meaningful game. The spread is close for a reason, so late in the fourth quarter, I will back Patrick Mahomes and co. The ball will be flying regardless of the victor, and Dallas Goedert has reached five receptions in his last three games. His targets in his last four games are 6, 5, 7, and 6. The Chiefs’ defense has been susceptible to tight ends and Hurts trusts Goedert in big-time moments.
Bob Duff – Sports Writer
- Super Bowl Predicted Score: Chiefs 27-24
- Best Bet: Chiefs +1.5 (-110)
- Favorite Super Bowl Prop Bet: Jalen Hurts anytime TD (-115)
On paper, this game is offering all indications that it could be a Super Bowl for the ages, and it will live up to that billing. The last team to drive to the Super Bowl like the Eagles with back-to-back lopsided wins was the 1990 Buffalo Bills, victims of Scott Norwood’s infamous wide right field goal attempt on the game’s final play. This time, the Eagles will also be victimized by a late field goal attempt. On this occasion, though, it’ll be Kansas City’s Harrison Butker smashing the game-winner straight through the uprights.
Brady Trettenero – Editor
- Super Bowl Predicted Score: Eagles 27- 20
- Best Bet: Eagles -1.5 (-110)
- Favorite Super Bowl Prop Bet: Kenneth Gainwell Over 34.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-110)
There’s an old saying that defense wins championships, and I expect that to reign true more than ever in Super Bowl 57. The Eagles’ defense has racked up an NFL-best 78 sacks this season and features one of the game’s most dominant edge rushers in Haason Reddick. With Patrick Mahomes having limited mobility due to his ankle injury, the Eagles’ defensive line will be the difference. We saw in the 2021 Super Bowl how the Bucs getting consistent pressure on Mahomes completely disrupted KC’s offense. The Eagles are the healthier and better defensive team, and I’m backing them to win and cover the spread Sunday.
You can see more of our Super Bowl content below:
- Tracking the Super Bowl’s Biggest Bets
- Super Bowl Betting Promos
- How to Bet on the Super Bowl Online
- Printable Super Bowl Props
- Printable Super Bowl Squares
- How to Bet on Super Bowl Props
Ryan is SBD's resident soccer pro, though his repertoire is by no means limited to a single sport. His articles have been published by the Canadian Hockey League (CHL), Ontario Hockey League (OHL), and the Kitchener Rangers, and outlets like SportsXpress and Shredthespread.com
