- The Buffalo Bills host the New England Patriots in Wild Card playoff Saturday night
- NFL regular season picks record: 32-40, -2.81 units
- See the odds, spread, analysis, and best prop bets below
It’s another chance to dip into New York sports betting when the New England Patriots visit the Buffalo Bills in the night cap of Wild Card playoff games Saturday night.
We hit a hot streak in the closing weeks of the NFL season to give ourselves a chance to break even on our season props total, but I underestimated these same Bills on defense, and in Devin Singletary’s running, leaving us in the red for the year.
I’d prefer to wipe the slate clean, though. The postseason is a whole different beast, and it gives us a chance to cash in with more player prop bets.
Get ready for the game with a preview here, as the Bills are 4.5-point favorites. Let’s run down our favorite props when this kicks off at Highmark Stadium at 8:15pm ET.
Patriots vs Bills Player Props
|Passer||Completions||Passing Yards||Passing TDs|
|Josh Allen (BUF)||21.5 (Ov -125 / Un -105)||240.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)||1.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)|
|Mac Jones (NE)||18.5 (Ov -120 / Un -110)||205.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)||1.5 (Ov +160 / Un -215)|
|Rusher||Rushing Yards||Rush + Rec Yards||Longest Rush|
|Devin Singletary (BUF)||64.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)||82.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)||13.5 (Ov -125 / Un -105)|
|Josh Allen (BUF)||45.5 (Ov -110 / Un -120)||OFF||15.5 (Ov -110 / Un -120)|
|Mac Jones (NE)||9.5 (Ov -110 / Un -120)||OFF||OFF|
|Rhamondre Stevenson (NE)||39.5 (Ov -125 / Un -105)||OFF||OFF|
|Receiver||Receptions||Receiving Yards||Longest Reception|
|Brandon Bolden (NE)||OFF||16.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)||OFF|
|Cole Beasley (BUF)||OFF||36.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)||OFF|
|Dawson Knox (BUF)||OFF||33.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)||19.5 (Ov -120 / Un -110)|
|Devin Singletary (BUF)||OFF||14.5 (Ov -120 / Un -110)||9.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)|
|Gabriel Davis (BUF)||OFF||27.5 (Ov -110 / Un -120)||15.5 (Ov -120 / Un -110)|
|Hunter Henry (NE)||3.5 (Ov +130 / Un -170)||33.5 (Ov -110 / Un -120)||16.5 (Ov -110 / Un -120)|
|Jakobi Meyers (NE)||4.5 (Ov +125 / Un -165)||46.5 (Ov -110 / Un -120)||19.5 (Ov -110 / Un -120)|
|Jonnu Smith (NE)||OFF||10.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)||OFF|
|Kendrick Bourne (NE)||3.5 (Ov +135 / Un -170)||32.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)||16.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)|
|Nelson Agholor (NE)||2.5 (Ov +125 / Un -170)||26.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)||15.5 (Ov -120 / Un -110)|
|Stefon Diggs (BUF)||OFF||71.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)||22.5 (Ov -120 / Un -110)|
Odds taken Jan 14 from DraftKings
Mac Jones Passing Yards
If you’ve been following our Super Bowl picks after every Sunday, you’ll know that the only critique I’ve had of Patriots’ quarterback Mac Jones js that he’s a rookie.
Mac Jones on playoff football: "There's not a lot of room for error, and that's kind of what makes it fun." pic.twitter.com/Fj0yeJSyXb
— Zack Cox (@ZackCoxNESN) January 12, 2022
He’s an Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate, so he’s had a good season. But Jones’ profile rose dramatically when he led the Pats to a 14-10 win over the Bills in Week 13 on Monday Night Football, though he threw only three passes for 19 yards. The Patriots’ run game went wild to seal that W.
That win put the Pats in the drivers’ seat to win the AFC East, but those hopes came crashing down, as they dropped three of four and watched the Bills pass them.
Voleibol? Micah Hyde diz CHEGA é intercepta Mac Jones! 🚫 #BillsMafia
— NFL Brasil (@NFLBrasil) December 26, 2021
Sure, Jones crossed this yards total with ease in three of those final four games, but the one game where he went under? You guessed it, at home against these same Bills, when he went 14-for-32 for 145 yards.
With frigid conditions in upstate New York, expect Bill Belichick to establish the ground game, especially against the NFL’s best pass defense. The Bills allow just 163 passing yards per game.
- Jones UNDER 205.5 passing yards (1.5 units to win 1.31 units)
Josh Allen Rushing Yards
Get ready for Josh Allen unleashed.
The Patriots have a good defense, which trails only Buffalo in surrendering 187.1 passing yards per game, but they’re a middling 23rd in run defense, allowing 123.7 yards per game.
— Mike Giardi (@MikeGiardi) January 14, 2022
The last time Allen played the Patriots, he shredded them both ways, throwing for 314 yards and three TD’s, while also running for 63 yards on 12 totes.
I liken him to a modern-day John Elway, a strong-armed pivot that can make any throws, but is so athletic and dynamic to escape the pocket when the opportunity presents itself.
— OutOfSightSports🚀 ™️ (@OOSSports) January 2, 2022
The run game has been a strong part of Allen’s game to close the season. He’s run for at least 63 yards in four of his final five games, including a season-best 109 yards against Tampa in Week 14. Expect him to clear that number with plenty to spare.
- Allen OVER 45.5 yards rushing (1.5 units to win 1.36 units)
Patriots vs Bills Scoring Props
|Player||First Touchdown Scorer||Anytime Touchdown Scorer|
|Devin Singletary (BUF)||+700||+100|
|Damien Harris (NE)||+750||+120|
Stefon Diggs (BUF)
Josh Allen (BUF)
|Emmanuel Sanders (BUF)||+1200||+220|
|Gabriel Davis (BUF)||+1200||+220|
|Dawson Knox (BUF)||+1300||+210|
|Cole Beasley (BUF)||+1400||+260|
|Rhamondre Stevenson (NE)||+1400||+250|
|Hunter Henry (NE)||+1400||+250|
|Jakobi Meyers (NE)||+1800||+300|
|Brandon Bolden (NE)||+2000||+360|
|Zack Moss (BUF)||+2200||+400|
|Nelson Agholor (NE)||+2200||+450|
|Kendrick Bourne (NE)||+2200||+380|
|Jonnu Smith (NE)||+3500||+500|
Patriots vs Bills TD Scorers
Thanks, as always, to our good friends at DraftKings for the insight into scoring props heading into the playoffs.
For the Patriots, Damien Harris has scored at least one touchdown in 10 of his last 11 appearances. He should feature prominently Saturday.
Stefon Diggs scores a TD.
Points to a few Patriots fans: “You, you, you, you, and you: Shut the f*** up." pic.twitter.com/DTKzWQB5kt
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) December 26, 2021
Devin Singletary has assumed the lead role at RB for Buffalo, and he’s scored at least one touchdown in each of the Bills’ last four games, while Stefon Diggs has scored a touchdown in five of the Bills’ last six games against AFC East opponents.
- Diggs to score anytime TD (1 unit to win 1.4 units)