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New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Props – Best Player Prop Bets for Wildcard Matchup

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NFL Football

Jan 14, 2022 · 5:15 PM PST

Josh Allen arms up signaling TD
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) celebrates during the second half of an NFL football game against the New York Jets in Orchard park, N.Y., Sunday Jan. 9, 2022. (AP/ Photo Jeffrey T. Barnes)
  • The Buffalo Bills host the New England Patriots in Wild Card playoff Saturday night
  • NFL regular season picks record: 32-40, -2.81 units
  • See the odds, spread, analysis, and best prop bets below

It’s another chance to dip into New York sports betting when the New England Patriots visit the Buffalo Bills in the night cap of Wild Card playoff games Saturday night.

We hit a hot streak in the closing weeks of the NFL season to give ourselves a chance to break even on our season props total, but I underestimated these same Bills on defense, and in Devin Singletary’s running, leaving us in the red for the year.

I’d prefer to wipe the slate clean, though. The postseason is a whole different beast, and it gives us a chance to cash in with more player prop bets.

Get ready for the game with a preview here, as the Bills are 4.5-point favorites. Let’s run down our favorite props when this kicks off at Highmark Stadium at 8:15pm ET.

Patriots vs Bills Player Props

Passer Completions Passing Yards Passing TDs
Josh Allen (BUF) 21.5 (Ov -125 / Un -105) 240.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)
Mac Jones (NE) 18.5 (Ov -120 / Un -110) 205.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115) 1.5 (Ov +160 / Un -215)
Rusher Rushing Yards Rush + Rec Yards Longest Rush
Devin Singletary (BUF) 64.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115) 82.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115) 13.5 (Ov -125 / Un -105)
Josh Allen (BUF) 45.5 (Ov -110 / Un -120) OFF 15.5 (Ov -110 / Un -120)
Mac Jones (NE) 9.5 (Ov -110 / Un -120) OFF OFF
Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) 39.5 (Ov -125 / Un -105) OFF OFF
Receiver Receptions Receiving Yards Longest Reception
Brandon Bolden (NE) OFF 16.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115) OFF
Cole Beasley (BUF) OFF 36.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115) OFF
Dawson Knox (BUF) OFF 33.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115) 19.5 (Ov -120 / Un -110)
Devin Singletary (BUF) OFF 14.5 (Ov -120 / Un -110) 9.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)
Gabriel Davis (BUF) OFF 27.5 (Ov -110 / Un -120) 15.5 (Ov -120 / Un -110)
Hunter Henry (NE) 3.5 (Ov +130 / Un -170) 33.5 (Ov -110 / Un -120) 16.5 (Ov -110 / Un -120)
Jakobi Meyers (NE) 4.5 (Ov +125 / Un -165) 46.5 (Ov -110 / Un -120) 19.5 (Ov -110 / Un -120)
Jonnu Smith (NE) OFF 10.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115) OFF
Kendrick Bourne (NE) 3.5 (Ov +135 / Un -170) 32.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115) 16.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)
Nelson Agholor (NE) 2.5 (Ov +125 / Un -170) 26.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115) 15.5 (Ov -120 / Un -110)
Stefon Diggs (BUF) OFF 71.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115) 22.5 (Ov -120 / Un -110)

Odds taken Jan 14 from DraftKings

Mac Jones Passing Yards

If you’ve been following our Super Bowl picks after every Sunday, you’ll know that the only critique I’ve had of Patriots’ quarterback Mac Jones js that he’s a rookie.

He’s an Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate, so he’s had a good season. But Jones’ profile rose dramatically when he led the Pats to a 14-10 win over the Bills in Week 13 on Monday Night Football, though he threw only three passes for 19 yards. The Patriots’ run game went wild to seal that W.

That win put the Pats in the drivers’ seat to win the AFC East, but those hopes came crashing down, as they dropped three of four and watched the Bills pass them.

Sure, Jones crossed this yards total with ease in three of those final four games, but the one game where he went under? You guessed it, at home against these same Bills, when he went 14-for-32 for 145 yards.

With frigid conditions in upstate New York, expect Bill Belichick to establish the ground game, especially against the NFL’s best pass defense. The Bills allow just 163 passing yards per game.

Pick: 

  • Jones UNDER 205.5 passing yards (1.5 units to win 1.31 units)

Josh Allen Rushing Yards

Get ready for Josh Allen unleashed.

The Patriots have a good defense, which trails only Buffalo in surrendering 187.1 passing yards per game, but they’re a middling 23rd in run defense, allowing 123.7 yards per game.

The last time Allen played the Patriots, he shredded them both ways, throwing for 314 yards and three TD’s, while also running for 63 yards on 12 totes.

I liken him to a modern-day John Elway, a strong-armed pivot that can make any throws, but is so athletic and dynamic to escape the pocket when the opportunity presents itself.

The run game has been a strong part of Allen’s game to close the season. He’s run for at least 63 yards in four of his final five games, including a season-best 109 yards against Tampa in Week 14. Expect him to clear that number with plenty to spare.

Pick:

  • Allen OVER 45.5 yards rushing (1.5 units to win 1.36 units)

Patriots vs Bills Scoring Props

Player First Touchdown Scorer Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Devin Singletary (BUF) +700 +100
Damien Harris (NE) +750 +120
Stefon Diggs (BUF)
+850 +140
Josh Allen (BUF)
+1000 +180
Emmanuel Sanders (BUF) +1200 +220
Gabriel Davis (BUF) +1200 +220
Dawson Knox (BUF) +1300 +210
Cole Beasley (BUF) +1400 +260
Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) +1400 +250
Hunter Henry (NE) +1400 +250
Jakobi Meyers (NE) +1800 +300
Brandon Bolden (NE) +2000 +360
Zack Moss (BUF) +2200 +400
Nelson Agholor (NE) +2200 +450
Kendrick Bourne (NE) +2200 +380
Jonnu Smith (NE) +3500 +500

Patriots vs Bills TD Scorers

Thanks, as always, to our good friends at DraftKings for the insight into scoring props heading into the playoffs.

For the Patriots, Damien Harris has scored at least one touchdown in 10 of his last 11 appearances. He should feature prominently Saturday.

Devin Singletary has assumed the lead role at RB for Buffalo, and he’s scored at least one touchdown in each of the Bills’ last four games, while Stefon Diggs has scored a touchdown in five of the Bills’ last six games against AFC East opponents.

Pick:

  • Diggs to score anytime TD (1 unit to win 1.4 units)
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