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NFL Player Award Picks from SBD’s Experts

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in NFL Football

Updated Sep 6, 2022 · 2:37 PM PDT

NFL player awards
Aug 17, 2022; Costa Mesa, CA, USA; Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) takes the snap from center Corey Linsley (63) against the Dallas Cowboys during joint practice at Jack Hammett Sports Complex. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
  • The NFL regular season kicks on Thursday, September 8, 2022 with the Rams hosting the Bills
  • Who are the best bets for MVP, OPOY, Rookies of the Year and more?
  • See the odds and picks for NFL Player Awards from the SBD experts below

With NFL kick-off just days away, it’s time to dive into some of the best bets in the futures markets to win some of the NFL Player Awards this 2022-23 NFL season. Our SBD experts have listed some of their top picks for the season in the table below.

NFL Player Award Picks

Ryan Metivier Pick (Odds)
NFL MVP Josh Allen (+700)
Offensive Player of the Year Justin Herbert (+2500)
Matt McEwan Pick (Odds)
NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes (+900)
NFL OROY Treylon Burks (+2000)
Sascha Paruk Pick (Odds)
Coach of the Year Zac Taylor (+3000)
NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers (+1100)
Bob Duff Pick (Odds)
Comeback Player of the Year Saquon Barkley (+1400)
NFL MVP Justin Herbert (+1000)
Zach Reger Pick (Odds)
NFL MVP Lamar Jackson (+1800)
NFL DROY Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner (+1300)

Odds as of Sept 6 

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Ryan Metivier

  • Josh Allen to win NFL MVP (+700)

Josh Allen may be the short shot at +700 odds in the NFL MVP odds, but the Bills are expected to be one of the top teams this season. They’re heavy favorites in the NFL division odds to win the AFC East and their win total is set at 11.5. Allen was seventh in both passing yards and touchdowns last season with 4,407 yards and 36 TDs. If Allen continues to improve as he’s done in his career, the Bills keep being fun and Buffalo begins to put some distance between themselves and the rest of the AFC East, maintaining their position as a Super Bowl favorite, this number will shorten over the season. When betting on the MVP, you have to look quarterback. Only one non-QB has won in the past 15 years and none since 2012.

  • Justin Herbert to win Offensive Player of the Year (+2500)

The OPOY is a little more wide-open when it comes to position winners. In the past ten years, the breakdown has been four QBs, four RBs, and two WRs. The wide receiver wins have come in two of the past three years though, including last year when Cooper Kupp took home the award.

Justin Herbert was second in passing yards (5,014) and third in touchdowns (38) last season. The AFC West is going to be a dogfight and who comes out is anyone’s guess. However, with four legitimate contenders in the NFL playoff odds, we could see some wild games and plenty of points. Herbert may not lead the Chargers to the top of the conference, but he should put up some gaudy stats along the way. Be sure to use this Barstool Sportsbook promo code to bet on the NFL and all of your NFL player award picks this season.

Matt McEwan

  • Patrick Mahomes to win NFL MVP (+900)

Yes, losing the explosiveness and field-stretching ability of Tyreek Hill is not ideal. However, Hill’s absence is not going to break the former league MVP. We have seen Mahomes play four games without Hill in his career. He completed 63.6% of his passes for an average of 363 yards per game, and threw eight touchdowns to zero interceptions. That’s good for a 108.9 passer rating. In other words, he was just fine.

Mecole Hardman’s 40-time is only 0.04 seconds slower than Hill’s. Marquez Valdes-Scantling also runs a 4.37. So, there’s going to be speed out there for Mahomes. I also really like the additions of JuJu Smith-Schuster and Skyy Moore. (And of course, I have to mention Travis Kelce still being there). Mahomes is going to have a good mix of speed and crisp route-runners in his arsenal.

While I do like what the Broncos and Chargers have done to their rosters in the offseason—even the Raiders look sexier on paper—I like Mahomes and the Chiefs to remain atop the AFC West. If he can outduel Justin Herbert and Russell Wilson, Mahomes will get a lot of love from the public and media.

Some sportsbooks have Mahomes as short as +800, so make sure you get the better price. If you’re not already betting at DraftKings, they have a great NFL offer right now that you can claim with our DraftKings Sportsbook promo code.

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  • Treylon Burks to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year (+2000)

Ryan Tannehill has thrown for 3,819 and 3,734 yards in the last two seasons. Looking to 2021 specifically, AJ Brown accounted for 869 of those yards in just 13 games, while Julio Jones had 434 in ten games. Neither of those players is on Titans this season.

Tennessee’s wide receiving corps looks as follows: Robert Woods (coming off knee surgery), Treylon Burks, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Racey McMath, and Kyle Phillips (fellow rookie). They also have Austin Hooper at tight end. I certainly expect Woods to be Tannehill’s most trusted target, but he lacks that explosion Tennessee needs. The Titans need an AJ Brown. That’s what they drafted Treylon Burks to be. Burks is the reason they felt comfortable trading Brown away.

There also has to be some concern about running Derrick Henry too much early in the season after he only played eight games last season due to injury. He was simply not himself when he returned for Tennessee’s upset loss to the Bengals in the playoffs.

I understand the disappointing camp and preseason scaring people off. But seeing Burks start alongside Woods in the Titans’ final game was a great sign. I believe there will simply come a time this season when the Titans are forced to put the ball in Burks’ hands and let him make the plays everyone knows he’s capable of.

Burks is as short as +1300 at some sportsbooks, but Caesars is offering +2000. I believe this is the best value you can find in betting NFL player award futures. Be sure you get the best Caesars Sportsbook promo before signing up.

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Sascha Paruk

  • Zach Taylor to win Coach of the Year (+3000)

The Bengals’ playoff run last season was the tip of the iceberg for this young, hyper-talented group. They were the only team in the AFC North to post a positive point differential in 2021 (+84) and – all due respect to Jim Harbaugh’s Ravens – Cincinnati is going to run away with the division this year.

After last season’s Super Bowl heartbreak, there should be a modicum of sympathy for Zac Taylor and company. Coach of the Year would be a nice consolation prize and a feel-good narrative for a guy who went 6-25 in his first two seasons.

This prop isn’t actually available at Barstool Sportsbook yet. But Taylor, whose NFL Coach of the Year odds are as short as +1800 at Caesars Sportsbook, is a generous +3000 at FanDuel Sportsbook.

  • Aaron Rodgers to win NFL MVP (+1100)

Let me be clear about one thing: I hate this pick; I think Aaron Rodgers is an idiot and quite possibly a danger to public health. With that out of the way, there is zero reason why Rodgers’ NFL MVP odds should be longer than the likes of Tom Brady (+900) and Justin Herbert (+1000).

A four-time MVP, including each of the past two seasons, the best argument against Rodgers being the outright favorite this year is voter fatigue. Brett Favre (1995-1997) is the only player to ever win MVP three seasons in a row, and the final one he shared with Barry Sanders.

But if you’re looking for a reason to back Rodgers, try this: he’s the best QB in the league and he isn’t surrounded by other stars. If/when the Packers win their fourth straight NFC North title, there isn’t going to be any debate about who got them there.

Bob Duff

  • Saquon Barkley to win Comeback Player of the Year (+1400)

If Saquon Barkley can stay healthy – and granted, that’s proven to be a big “if” the past two seasons – Barkley could really blossom into a threat under the tutelage of offensive guru Brian Daboll with the Giants. As an NFL rookie in 2018, Barkley scored 15 TDs, rushed for 1,307 yards, and caught 91 passes for another 791 yards.

  • Justin Herbert to win NFL MVP (+1100)

Justin Herbert has put up Dan Marino-like numbers through his first two NFL seasons. He started out spectacularly as a rookie and got better last season. It’s the third season when great players generally blossom into superstars. The Chargers could be AFC West champs this year. If they are, Herbert will be a big reason why.

Zach Reger

  • Lamar Jackson to win MVP (+1800)

The MVP has become a quarterback’s award. The last ten award winners have all been a quarterback, so where can you find value between quarterbacks? How about finding a quarterback that is in a contract year? Lamar Jackson is heading into this season looking to become one of the highest-paid quarterbacks in the league. Jackson won the award back in 2019, and while his pass-catchers are a concern, Jackson’s legs always keep him in the running to make some big plays.

With the Ravens missing the playoffs and the Bengals making the Super Bowl last year, Baltimore has flown under the radar heading into the 2022 season. With that, so has Lamar Jackson. He is still just 25 years old, and if he leads the Ravens to an NFC North title, it would be hard to at least not look at Lamar Jackson for MVP. There is a lot of value at +1800.

 

  • Ahmad Gardner to win Defensive Rookie of the Year (+1300)

When it comes to Defensive Rookie of the Year, people tend to look for either sacks or interceptions. While Sauce Gardner will not get many sacks, if any, he will have plenty of opportunities to pick off opposing quarterbacks.

The Jets have received some hype this offseason, but they still have a ways to go before they become a true contender in the AFC. Because of this, teams will throw the ball often, especially early, in an attempt to make some big plays. That is where Gardner will come in.

Gardner finished his collegiate career at Cincinnati with nine interceptions and did not allow a single touchdown during his three seasons there. Fast forward to this preseason, and Gardner has already impressed. You might not have seen any of his highlights because he was not targeted once this preseason, despite playing 24 coverage snaps. Sauce Garner is an extremely talented cornerback, so the +1300 odds offer great value for your NFL player award picks.

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