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Costa Rica vs USA Odds & Prediction – CONCACAF World Cup Qualifying Matchday 14

Gary Gowers

by Gary Gowers in Soccer News

Updated Mar 30, 2022 · 9:56 AM PDT

Pulisic USA
United States' Christian Pulisic looks on during the first half of a FIFA World Cup qualifying soccer match between Panama and the United States, Sunday, March 27, 2022, in Orlando, Fla. The U.S. won 5-1. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)
  • It’s Costa Rica vs USA in CONCACAF World Cup Qualifying on Wednesday, March 30 at 9:05 pm EST
  • The USA need only a point to confirm their place in Qatar 2022
  • We preview the game, look at the USA vs Panama odds, and offer some picks below

It’s Costa Rica vs USA on Matchday 14 of CONCACAF World Cup qualifying on Wednesday, March 30 at 9:05 pm EST at the Estadio National de Costa Rica, San José.

This is a massive night for Los Ticos as a win could yet take them into the top three qualifying spots, while the USA needs just one point to qualify for Qatar 2022. Canada sits atop the table and the Panama vs Canada odds favor the Canadians.

We preview Costa Rica vs USA and offer below the best picks for this huge World Cup qualifier.

Costa Rica vs USA Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline Total
Costa Rica vs USA CRI +0.5 (-148) | USA -0.5 (+114) CRI +255| DRAW +200 | USA +112 Ov 2.5 (+170 | Un 2.5 (-230)

Odds as of March 29 at Barstool Sportsbook

The bookies have pitched the USA as narrow +112 favorites to win this in the World Cup odds with Barstool with an implied win probability of 47.2%. Costa Rica, with home advantage, are not too far behind on the moneyline with Barstool pitching them at +255 outsiders, with an implied win probability of 28.2%.

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Flying Costa Rica

After a slow start to their ‘final-8’ qualifying group, the Costa Ricans are now flying and have given themselves a genuine chance of qualifying for their sixth World Cup finals and their third consecutively. They went a step closer on Sunday when Luis Fernando Suarez’s men overcame El Savadorin San Salvador, winning 2-1 with goals from Anthony Contreras and Joel Campbell.

The win took them up to fourth in the table and they come into this final qualifying game off the back of a run of six qualifiers unbeaten, five of which have been wins. It has been a remarkable turnaround from what looked like an almost impossible position, and even if they don’t make the third and final automatic qualifying spot, which is a big ask, they are guaranteed another shot at it via the intercontinental playoff final.

Organization the Key for Suarez

Suarez, by his own admission, has put together a team that has started achieving results through good organization and hard work rather than through flair and style, but it’s a team that is effective and can pick up results even when not playing at their best – in invaluable trait when looking to qualify for a major tournament.

What Costa Rica does have to overcome here is a poor recent record against the US, with Wednesday’s visitors having won their last four meetings but, equally, they can also point to the fact they have never lost a World Cup qualifier to the USA on their home patch.

Costa Rica vs USA Head-to-Head Stats

Costa Rica
VS
USA
6-4-3 Qualifying 8 Record 7-4-2
11 / 8 Goals for / Goals Against 21 / 8
0.89 Average xG 1.45
1.49 Average xGA 0.81
W-W-D-W-W-W Form guide (all competitions) W-W-L-W-D-W

Job Nearly Done for the USA

The USA’s 5-1 thrashing of Panama at the weekend was by far their most impressive display in qualifying was, arguably, one the most impressive of the final qualifying group full stop. Against a Panama team that desperately needed a win to keep alive their own chances of qualification, a hat-trick from Chelsea’s Christian Pulisic and a goal each from Paul Arriola and Jesus Ferreira led them to an emphatic 5-1 win in Orlando.

With a 4-0 lead at the interval, USA coach Gregg Berhalter was able to rest some of his key players in the second half, keeping them fresh ahead of this game where just a point will be enough to see them get the job done and book their place in Qatar.

The USA Hoping to Avoid Playoff

The good news for the US is that even if the worst happens and they somehow manage not to get the point they need, they are already guaranteed fourth place and a place in the inter-continental playoff, but for that scenario to play out, Costa Rica will need to win by three clear goals and Mexico needs to lose at home to El Salvador. Though the Mexico vs El Salvador odds heavily favor El Tri.

Given that the Costa Ricans have only scored 11 times in their 13 qualifying games, this looks very unlikely to come to fruition but the World Cup is known for throwing up the odd unexpected result, so the USA still has a job to do. When these sides last met back in October, USA won 2-1 at Lower.com Field in Columbus, Ohio.

Costa Rica vs USA Pick

The Costa Rican win is not beyond the realms of possibility given the run they are on, but the USA’s incentive to earn at least a point is massive. I can see this being a tight, cautious game that could well end in a low-scoring tie.

Pick: Costa Rica and USA to draw (+200) 

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