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99 DAYS TO KICKOFF: ODDS UPDATE

May 30, 2018

 

PART 1: SUPER BOWL 53 & PLAYER AWARDS ODDS

 

Odds to win Super Bowl 53

TEAM SUPER BOWL 53 ODDS
Patriots 7/1
Eagles 9/1
Rams 11/1
Packers 15/1
Vikings 16/1
Steelers 17/1
Saints 18/1
Chargers 22/1
Texans 24/1
Falcons 26/1
Jaguars 28/1
49ers 35/1
Cowboys 40/1
Panthers 45/1
Chiefs 50/1
Giants 50/1
Seahawks 50/1
Ravens 55/1
Broncos 55/1
Titans 55/1
Raiders 65/1
Lions 70/1
Colts 75/1
Washington 80/1
Buccaneers 85/1
Bears 90/1
Cardinals 90/1
Bengals 95/1
Browns 95/1
Bills 100/1
Dolphins 115/1
Jets 115/1

 

2018 NFL MVP odds

PLAYER MVP ODDS
Tom Brady (Patriots) 8/1
Aaron Rodgers (Packers) 8/1
Carson Wentz (Eagles) 12/1
Russell Wilson (Seahawks) 12/1
Matt Ryan (Falcons) 16/1
Drew Brees (Saints) 18/1
Cam Newton (Panthers) 19/1
Jimmy Garoppolo (49ers) 25/1
Deshaun Watson (Texans) 32/1
Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers) 35/1
Jared Goff (Rams) 40/1
David Johnson (Cardinals) 40/1
Philip Rivers (Chargers) 45/1
Matthew Stafford (Lions) 45/1
Derek Carr (Raiders) 50/1
Le’Veon Bell (Steelers) 55/1
Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys) 55/1
Antonio Brown (Steelers) 65/1
Aaron Donald (Rams) 85/1
FIELD 13/3

 

Offensive Rookie of the Year odds (2018)

*If you would like to bet on the Offensive Rookie of the Year futures, you can find the average odds across all the top sportsbooks in our Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds Tracker. The odds below, on the other hand, were calculated by SBD’s team of in-house NFL experts and represent our analysis of players’ actual probability of winning the award. There is no “juice” added in and the cumulative probability adds up to 100%.

PLAYER OROY ODDS
Saquon Barkley (Giants) 7/2
Rashaad Penny (Seahawks) 9/1
Sony Michel (Patriots) 10/1
Baker Mayfield (Browns) 11/1
Josh Rosen (Cardinals) 16/1
Derrius Guice (Washington) 18/1
Lamar Jackson (Ravens) 24/1
Ronald Jones II (Buccaneers) 24/1
Sam Darnold (Jets) 28/1
Josh Allen (Bills) 28/1
Calvin Ridley (Falcons) 32/1
DJ Moore (Panthers) 39/1
Michael Gallup (Cowboys) 39/1
FIELD 5/1

 

Defensive Rookie of the Year odds (2018)

*Lead NFL writer Matt McEwan recently broke down the Defensive Rookie of the Year odds currently on offer at MyBookie. Compare and contrast those odds with our own calculations below, which were developed by SBD’s team of in-house NFL experts and represent our analysis of players’ actual probability of winning the award. Our odds do not include any “juice” and the cumulative probability adds up to 100%.

PLAYER DROY ODDS
Bradley Chubb (Broncos) 6/1
Tremaine Edmunds (Bills) 8/1
Derwin James (Chargers) 8/1
Roquan Smith (Bears) 9/1
Denzel Ward (Browns) 12/1
Minkah Fitzpatrick (Dolphins) 15/1
Josh Jackson (Packers) 20/1
Leighton Vander Esch (Cowboys) 22/1
Marcus Davenport (Saints) 22/1
FIELD 14/5

 

PART 2: STATISTICAL PROPS & PROJECTIONS

 

Odds to have highest scoring offense in 2018

TEAM ODDS
Patriots 8/1
Eagles 8/1
Steelers 10/1
Falcons 12/1
Rams 12/1
Packers 14/1
Saints 14/1
Texans 14/1
Vikings 18/1
Jaguars 20/1
FIELD 7/3

Odds to have top-ranked scoring defense in 2018

TEAM ODDS
Jaguars 15/2
Vikings 8/1
Chargers 8/1
Broncos 10/1
Texans 12/1
Ravens 14/1
Rams 14/1
Eagles 15/1
Panthers 16/1
Patriots 18/1
FIELD 14/5

 

League-wide over/unders

PROP ODDS
Number of 1,000-yard rushers 10.5
Number of 1,000-yard receivers 16.5
Number of 4,000-yard passers 11.5

 

Rushing leader odds

PLAYER ODDS TO BE 2018 RUSHING CHAMP
Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys) 11/2
 Le’Veon Bell (Steelers) 7/1
Leonard Fournette (Jaguars) 9/1
Todd Gurley (Rams) 9/1
Saquon Barkley (Giants) 10/1
Kareem Hunt (Chiefs) 11/1
David Johnson (Cardinals) 12/1
LeSean McCoy (Bills) 13/1
 Dalvin Cook (Vikings) 15/1
Alex Collins (Ravens) 24/1
FIELD 10/1

 

Over/Under TD passes: moving & returning QBs

PLAYER OVER/UNDER TD PASSES
Carson Wentz (Eagles) 27.5
Kirk Cousins (Vikings) 26.5
Alex Smith (Washington) 22.5
Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) 21.5
Nick Foles (Eagles) 3.5

 

Over/Under total TDs: rookie QBs

PLAYER OVER/UNDER TOTAL TDs
Josh Rosen (Cardinals) 10.5
Josh Allen (Bills) 9.5
Sam Darnold (Jets) 7.5
Baker Mayfield (Browns) 7.5
Lamar Jackson (Ravens) 7.0

 

Over/Under TD passes: Jets QBs past & present

PLAYER OVER/UNDER TD PASSES
Josh McCown (Jets) 12.5
Sam Darnold (Jets) 6.5
Teddy Bridgewater (Jets) 3.5
Ryan Fitzpatrick (Buccaneers) 2.5
Christian Hackenberg (Raiders) 0.5
Bryce Petty (Dolphins) 0.5
Mark Sanchez (free agent) 0.5
Geno Smith (Chargers) 0.5

 

Over/Under TD passes: Browns QBs

PLAYER OVER/UNDER TD PASSES
Tyrod Taylor 14.5
Baker Mayfield 6.5
Drew Stanton 0.5
All others 0.5

 

Over/Under TD catches: Browns receivers

PLAYER OVER/UNDER TD CATCHES
Josh Gordon 6.5
Jarvis Landry 5.5
Corey Coleman 3.5
All others 5.5

 

Over/Under sacks

PLAYER OVER/UNDER SACKS
Joey Bosa (Chargers) 12.5
Chandler Jones (Cardinals) 12.5
Khalil Mack (Raiders) 11.5
 DeMarcus Lawrence (Cowboys) 11.0
Von Miller (Broncos) 11.0
Myles Garrett (Browns) 10.5
Jadeveon Clowney (Texans) 10.0
JJ Watt (Texans) 9.5
Bradley Chubb (Broncos) 9.0
Calais Campbell (Jaguars) 8.5

 

Individual player streak odds

PROP ODDS
Larry Fitzgerald (Cardinals) is held under 100 catches for first time in four years 5/4
Antonio Brown (Steelers) is held under 100 catches for first time in six years 5/3
Ryan Fitzpatrick (Buccaneers) is held under 1,000 passing yards for first time in 10 years 1/9
Drew Brees is held under 3,150 passing yards for first time in 14 years 8/1

PART 3: MISERY LOVES COMPANY (& CONTROVERSY)

 

First coach fired odds (2018)

COACH ODDS TO BE FIRED FIRST
Hue Jackson (Browns) 5/1
Dirk Koetter (Buccaneers) 7/1
Vance Joseph (Broncos) 7/1
Marvin Lewis (Bengals) 9/1
Jay Gruden (Washington) 9/1
Todd Bowles (Jets) 10/1
 Matt Patricia (Lions) 15/1
Adam Gase (Dolphins) 16/1
Jason Garrett (Cowboys) 19/1
Ron Rivera (Panthers) 19/1
John Harbaugh (Ravens) 32/1
FIELD 10/1

 

Odds to be on an NFL roster in Week 1

PLAYER ODDS
Dez Bryant 1/8
DeMarco Murray 1/3
Adrian Peterson 2/3
Eric Reid 4/1
Colin Kaepernick 19/1
Jay Cutler 49/1

 

Political & National Anthem props

PROP ODDS
O/U number of players who stay in the locker room for the anthem in Week 1 63.5
O/U number of players who make on on-field statement other than kneeling in Week 1 49.5
Odds Donald Trump tweets about the anthem issue during Week 1 (Sep. 3 – 9) 1/4

2018 NFL DRAFT PROPS

April 23, 2018

 

QUARTERBACK PROPS

Odds on which QB is selected first

QUARTERBACK ODDS
Sam Darnold (USC) 6/5
Josh Allen (Wyoming) 5/4
Josh Rosen (UCLA) 15/1
Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma) 25/1

Odds a quarterback is not selected with the No. 1 overall pick: 11/1

Over/Under QBs selected in the first round: 5.5

Odds QBs are picks #1-3: 6/5

Odds QBs are picks #1-4: 8/1

Odds the top-five QB prospects (Allen, Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield, Jackson) are all selected in the first round: 1/5

Odds on draft order of the top four QB prospects

ORDER ODDS
Darnold, Mayfield, Rosen, Allen 3/1
Allen, Darnold, Mayfield, Rosen 4/1
Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield, Allen 7/1
Allen, Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield 8/1
Darnold, Mayfield, Allen, Rosen 9/1
FIELD 9/2

Over/Under draft position

PLAYER O/U
Baker Mayfield (QB, Oklahoma) 3.5
Saquon Barkley (RB, Penn State) 4.5
Lamar Jackson (QB, Louisville) 15.5
Derrius Guice (RB, LSU) 25.5
Orlando Brown Jr. (OT, Oklahoma) 45.5
Shaquem Griffin (LB, UCF) 73.5

 

Odds the following teams draft a QB in the first round 

TEAM ODDS
Bills 3/4
Cardinals 3/2
Jaguars 5/2
Dolphins 4/1
Patriots 5/1
Washington 6/1
Steelers 12/1
Saints 14/1

 

FIRST-ROUND PROPS

Over/Under 2018 first-round picks traded from April 25 to end of Round 1: 7.5

More picks in the first round

POSITION O/U
Offensive players 4/3
Defensive players 15/9
  16 of each 4/1

First tight end drafted

PLAYER O/U
Hayden Hurst (South Carolina) 3/5
Dallas Goedert (South Dakota State) 4/1
  Mark Andrews (Oklahoma) 10/1
Mike Gesicki (Penn State) 25/1

Last player left in the green room

PLAYER ODDS
Shaquem Griffin (UCF) 1/2
Connor Williams (G, Texas) 12/1
Leighton Vander Esch (LB, Boise State) 14/1
Derrius Guice (RB, LSU) 16/1
Jaire Alexander (CB, Louisville) 25/1
Josh Jackson (CB, Iowa) 30/1
FIELD 17/1

CONFERENCE PROPS

Most first-round picks by conference

CONFERENCE ODDS
SEC 1/8
All Non-Power 5 Combined 15/1
ACC 33/1
Big Ten 45/1
Pac-12 150/1
Big 12 450/1

Over/Under first-round picks by conference

CONFERENCE O/U
SEC 9.5
All Non-Power 5 Combined 6.5
ACC 5.5
Big Ten 4.5
Pac-12 4.5
Big 12 2.5

Most first-round picks by team

TEAM ODDS
Alabama 1/19
 Ohio State 35/1
Notre Dame 199/1
FIELD 61/1

Over/Under total picks by team (all seven rounds)

TEAM OVER/UNDER
Alabama 10.5
Georgia 8.5
Ohio State 8.5
Penn State 7.5
Notre Dame 4.5
Oklahoma 4.5
USC 4.5
Wisconsin 4.5
Clemson 3.5
Michigan 3.0

 

ESPN/NFL NETWORK ODDS

Most correct first-round selections in final mock draft

EXPERT ODDS
Mike Mayock 5/2
Daniel Jeremiah 5/2
Todd McShay 3/1
Mel Kiper 9/2

Odds to be the first college coach interviewed by ESPN

COACH ODDS
Clay Helton (USC) 6/1
Craig Bohl (Wyoming) 7/1
James Franklin (Penn State) 15/2
Nick Saban (Alabama) 15/2
Jim Mora Jr (former UCLA coach)  14/1
FIELD 5/4

First player to cry on stage or during his interview

PLAYER ODDS
Bradley Chubb (NC State)
8/1
Josh Rosen (UCLA) 9/1
Denzel Ward (Ohio State) 11/1
Tremaine Edmunds (Va. Tech) 13/1
Roquan Smith (Georgia) 13/1
Minkah Fitzpatrick (Alabama) 15/1
Vita Vea (Washington) 19/1
FIELD 5/4

Which player in Daniel Jeremiah’s top-25 prospects will fall the farthest from his ranking

PLAYER ODDS
Derrius Guice (LSU): #17 6/1
Jaire Alexander (Louisville): #16 6/1
Derwin James (Florida State): #8 8/1
Denzel Ward (Ohio State): #4 9/1
Vita Vea (Washington): #11 9/1
FIELD 3/2


Over/under on the number of times ESPN shows Jerry Jones during its first-round coverage: 6.5

Odds Jerry Jones appears on the stage during the first round (between picks 1-32): 5/1

Odds Roger Goodell mispronounces the name of a first-round pick: 24/1

Primary color of Roger Goodell’s tie

COLOR ODDS
Blue 3/4
Red 9/1
Green 15/1
FIELD  11/4

Odds Roger Goodell does not wear a striped tie: 5/1

Odds a player picks Roger Goodell up off the ground during their embrace: 3/1

Odds a first-round pick does not hug Roger Goodell: 2/3

Over/under how long Roger Goodell is booed when he first enters the stage: 45.5 seconds

Odds Jerry Jones or a member of the Jones family boos Roger Goodell: 15/1

Over/under number of first-round picks who appear on stage but do not hug Roger Goodell: 2.5

INTANGIBLES

Odds on which player attending the draft will make the most outrageous fashion statement

PLAYER ODDS
Lamar Jackson 3/2
Vita Vea 12/1
Shaquem Griffin 12/1
 Saquon Barkley 24/1
FIELD 3/2


Odds the majority of Cowboys fans at the AT&T Stadium will boo the team’s first pick: 9/1

Odds the Cowboys trade up in the first round: 3/1