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Super Bowl Betting Trends – NFC Poor as Favorites, Coin Toss Winners Lose & More

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NFL Football

Updated Feb 10, 2023 · 3:33 PM PST

Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts on stage
Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts, left, and Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes will be the focus of attention when Super Bowl 57 kicks off Sunday evening. Usp Nfl Super Bowl Lvii Opening Night S Fbn Usa Az
  • The Philadelphia Eagles are 1.5-point favorites over the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl 57
  • However, Super Bowl betting trends show NFC teams are 0-4 ATS and 1-3 SU in the last four games they’ve been favored
  • Super Bowl winning teams are 47-7-2 all-time in terms of covering the spread

There are plenty of Super Bowl betting trends associated with the big game. The question a bettor faces is which trends to follow and which ones to ignore?

There’s an old axiom that you can make statistics say whatever you want them to say. Well, that same approach could be taken when in comes to Super Bowl betting trends.

The Philadelphia Eagles are 1.5-point favorites over the Kansas City Chiefs in the Super Bowl odds. However, one betting trend shows that NFC favorites are 0-4 ATS in their last four Super Bowl games. In fact, NFC teams are 1-7-2 ATS in the last 10 Super Bowl games in which they kicked off as the chalk.

On the other hand, this year’s game is being broadcast by FOX, with a 6:30 pm ET kickoff at State Farm Stadium. And that’s good news for the Eagles. In recent Super Bowls carried by FOX Sports, NFC teams are 4-2 ATS. The last NFC favorite to win and cover was the Green Bay Packers in Super Bowl 45, a game broadcast by FOX.

Let’s take a deep dive into these Super Bowl betting trends and see how they are impacting this Chiefs vs Eagles matchup that sees the Eagles as -125 moneyline favorites to win the game,

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Heads Up for Coin Toss Betting Trends

Before the game starts, there’s the Super Bowl coin toss. This is a very popular Super Bowl prop wager, but how does the outcome of the coin flip impact the outcome of the game, and thus your Chiefs vs Eagles picks?

On the surface, this is a legit 50-50 proposition, so logically, there shouldn’t be any betting trends evolving from the coin toss, right? Wrong.

The winner of the coin toss has lost eight consecutive Super Bowl games when it comes to Super Bowl coin toss results. Overall the coin-flip winner was the Super Bowl loser in 32 of 56 games. When the flip has come up tails, that team is 2-8 in the past 10 Super Bowls.

However, in three previous Super Bowl games played in Arizona, tails was the outcome of all three coin flips. And that team went on to win the game each time.

Underdogs Rise Up In Arizona

More bad news for Eagles backers – underdogs thrive in the dry heat of the desert sun in Arizona. As mentioned above, this will be the fourth Super Bowl game played in the Grand Canyon State. This far, underdogs are 3-0 against the spread and 2-1 straight up.

New England won Super Bowl 49 as 1-point underdogs to Seattle. But the Patriots fell to the Giants in Super Bowl 42 as a 12-point chalk. In Super Bowl 30, Dallas beat Pittsburgh 27-17 but the Steelers covered the 13.5-point spread.

Overall, underdogs are 15-6 ATS in the past 21 Super Bowl games. However, favorites are 37-19 all-time historical point spreads for the Super Bowl.

Super Bowl betting trends

Over/Under Betting Trends You Should Totally Consider

When there’s a team from the AFC West, as the Chiefs are, in the Super Bowl game, the points tend to add up, although not as much in recent games. The last three games involving squads from the AFC West, including both with QB Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, all went under in the ATS and Over/Under trends in Super Bowl betting trends.

Prior to that run, though, the eight Super Bowl games featuring an AFC West team all hit on the over. Three of the four Super Bowls featuring the Chiefs have gone under, though. There was no total wagering offered on the first Super Bowl between Kansas City and Green Bay in 1967.

As far as the Eagles are concerned, they are 1-2 on the total in three previous Super Bowl appearances. Philly went way over the total of 49 in beating New England 41-33 in Super Bowl 52.

Does Experience Matter?

In a job interview, yes. In a Super Bowl game, not so much.

Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts will be starting his first Super Bowl. Kansas City QB and reigning NFL MVP Mahomes is under center for his third Super Bowl game.

A first-time starter facing an experienced starter has occurred 25 previous times in the history of the big game. The experience factor holds the edge, but it’s not a dramatic one at 14-11 SU. Teams suiting up more Super Bowl-experienced players are just 6-10 SU in the last 16 games.

The last first-time starting QB to beat a returnee? That would be Nick Foles of the Eagles, who toppled the GOAT, Tom Brady and the Patriots in Super Bowl 52.

This game will also mark the fourth time that the winner and the runner-up in the MVP voting are clashing in the Super Bowl. The guy who came in second in the MVP ballot was wagging his index finger as #1 and the winner of all three previous games in this scenario. The last nine MVPs to play in the Super Bowl are 0-9 SU.

Oddball Super Bowl Betting Trends

Teams wearing the white jerseys are 15-3 SU in the past 18 Super Bowls. Kansas City will wear white in Super Bowl 57. It’s the first time since 2015 that the Chiefs are going with their white unis in a playoff game. They lost that one at New England. The Eagles won Super Bowl 52 wearing their dark colors.

Other crazy Super Bowl trends? The NFC is 16-5 SU when the game is played in a dome, as it will be this year. The underdog has won five of the past seven Super Bowls involving teams from the AFC West. When the top two seeds meet in the Super Bowl, like they will in Super Bowl 57, the NFC is 9-4 SU in Super Bowl betting trends.

Crazy, Wild, Exotic Super Bowl Betting Trends

Suppose you have no interest in wagering on the Super Bowl. You’re more interested in the novelty props surrounding the game.

Well, it just so happens that there are active betting trends with those wagers as well. For instance, Rihanna is performing at halftime. In the last five Super Bowls when the halftime entertainment was female, the AFC is 4-1 SU in Super Bowl halftime show history.

All of the leading USA betting sites are offering odds on just about every Super Bowl wager imaginable. Sign up with as many of these sites as you’d like and take advantage of their Super Bowl betting promotions.

Looking for Super Bowl 57 prop picks? See our top picks across a wide range of prop betting markets here, plus our very own printable props sheet. 

  1. Printable Props Sheet
  2. Super Bowl National Anthem & Coin Toss Props
  3. Super Bowl Broadcast Props
  4. Super Bowl Halftime Props Featuring Rihanna
  5. Super Bowl Game Props
  6. Exotic & Novelty Prop Bets for Super Bowl 57
  7. Gatorade Color Odds
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