Champions League Betting – Round of 16 Odds & Predictions

On February 17, the UEFA Champions League returns to action with the Round of 16. Below, I preview all eight home-and-home series (which will be decided based on aggregate goals) and set out the odds to advance to the Round of 8 along with my picks.

Generally, I don’t see any of Europe’s true heavyweights missing the final eight, but I do see a minor upset or two in the mix.

(Note that the odds below are for the two-game series, not just the first match.)

PSG (+180) vs. Chelsea (-225)

Paris Saint-Germain (4-1-1, 2nd place Group F) have spent plenty of money trying to become one of the best teams in Europe, but they haven’t yet come close to a Champions League title; a bad draw plagues the French club this season, as they will have to face high-powered Chelsea in the Round of 16.

Chelsea (4-2-0, 1st place Group E) not only leads the English Premier League at the moment, but they eliminated PSG last season. The teams tied 3-3 on aggregate, but Chelsea managed the only away goal.  The Blues are clearly better than last season; while PSG has a strong squad, they’re not quite at Chelsea’s level yet.

Pick: Chelsea.

Shakhtar Donetsk (+800) vs. Bayern Munich (-1600)

Shakhtar Donetsk (2-3-1, 2nd place Group H) is one of the most lethal offensive units in the Champions League competition. They potted 15 goals in just six games in the group stage. However, the Ukrainians are running head-long into one of the overall favorites, Bayern Munich (5-0-1, 1st place Group E).

Bayern was one of the few teams to outscore Donetsk during group play (16 goals), and managed the feat in a veritable group of death (which featured Man City, AS Roma, and CSKA Moscow). Donetsk may crack Bayern’s stout defense at some point, but expect the Germans to move on with relative ease.

Pick: Bayern Munich.

Basel (+180) vs FC Porto (-225)

Basel (2-1-3, 2nd place Group B) advanced to the Round of 16 by upsetting Liverpool in the last match of the group stage; they are one of the only remaining teams which conceded more goals than they scored in the group stage (seven goals for, eight goals against).

On the other side, Porto (4-2-0, 1st place Group H) is a regular in the Round of 16 and always has young talented players, especially from South America, which can make special plays on the big stage. The Portuguese squad lit up their group-mates in the first round, scoring 16 goals and conceding just four. But they had the benefit of playing in possibly the weakest quartet, which included Athletic Bilbao, BATE Borisov, and Shakhtar Donetsk.

Pick: Porto.

Schalke 04 (+700) vs. Real Madrid (-1200)

These two teams also met in the Round of 16 last year, with Real Madrid cruising to a seven-goal win.  If anything, the Real Madrid (6-0-0, 1st place Group B) are better this season. Schalke (2-2-2, 2nd place Group G) – the only team besides Basel to concede more goals (14) than it scored (9) and still advance  will have their hands beyond full.

Pick: Real Madrid.

Juventus (-125) vs. Borussia Dortmund (+100)

Juventus (3-1-2, 2nd place Group A) are likely to win the Serie A for the fourth year in a row, but they haven’t won anything outside of the domestic league since 1996.

Borussia Dortmund (4-1-1, 1st place Group D) is having an awful season in the Bundesliga, currently sitting in the relegation zone, but they have been a different team in the Champions League. With all their hopes pinned on this tournament – and playmaker Marci Reus back after missing a few months with an ankle injury – look for the Germans to play inspired football.

Pick: Dortmund.

Man City (+210) vs. Barcelona (-275)

In arguably the best match of the Round of 16, Man City (2-2-2, 2nd place Group E) will host Barcelona (5-0-1, 1st place Group F). This is another repeat of a match from last year, when Lionel Messi and his Barca teammates ousted City 4-1 on aggregate.

This time around, Barcelona has some problems inside the locker room. Despite the Citizens’ recent struggles in the EPL (where they are winless in the last three matches), they have showed themselves to be a truly elite squad in the last couple months.

Pick: Man City.

Arsenal (-275) vs. Monaco (+210)

Since 2004, Arsenal (4-1-1, 2nd place Group D) have been a disappointment in the Champions League. But the Gunners have a good draw this year, facing Monaco (3-1-1, 1st place Group C) in the Round of 16.

Monaco scored just four goals during group play and managed to win Group C despite taking the full three points in only half of their games. Monaco has a solid defense, which conceded just once in the round-robin portion, but they didn’t have to play any teams with the firepower of Arsenal.

Arsenal did lose 1-0 to Monaco in the Emirates Cup, but expect the Gunners to show a different level in this far more prestigious tournament.

Pick: Arsenal.

Bayern Leverkusen (+225) vs. Atletico Madrid (-300)

Atletico Madrid (4-1-1, 1st place Group A) was the runner-up in the Champions League last season. This year, Diego Simeone – who was robbed of the 2014 Coach of the Year award – has a more aggressive offense, and it has made Atletico better, overall.

Simeone’s side has a fairly tough draw in the Round of 16, meeting Bayern Leverkusen (3-1-2, 2nd place Group C). But the German’s underperformed in the group stage and I like the Spaniards to continue their Champions League success.

Pick: Atletico Madrid.