Euro 2016 Betting – Malta Massive ‘Dogs at Italy

Moneyline: Malta (+6000) at Italy (-3300), Draw (+1400)

Spread: Malta at Italy (-3)

Italy have to be disappointed in their recent stretch of Euro 2016 qualifiers, earning just a single point in three straight. But the Azzurri are heavy favorites to take the full-three in their next fixture, as they host an overmatched Malta team at Stadio Artemio Franchi in Florence on Thursday, September 3 (2:45 PM Eastern).

Italy drew Croatia twice (1-1, 1-1), and Bulgaria (2-2) over the last three, leaving the Azzurri with 12 points through six games, two back of Croatia in Group H.  They opened qualifying with three straight wins over Norway (0-2), Azerbaijan (2-1), and Malta (0-1), but failed to impress on offense, leaving many pundits questioning their ability to top the group.

The team recognizes that it’s in a transitional stage, but remains confident it’ll reach the main draw of Euro 2016; and, if they do, they won’t be going to France with anything other than a championship in mind.

“We’ll go to the European Championships with the intention of trying to win it, even though there will be really strong teams, and our national team is at a delicate stage,” said midfielder Marco Verratti in an interview with Goal.

Italian manager Antonio Conte surprised the soccer world by calling up two players from the MLS: striker Sebastian Giovinco (Toronto) and (somewhat less surprisingly) veteran Andrea Pirlo (New York City). Both will suit up against Malta and also Italy’s following match against Bulgaria.

In the trends, Italy has won all seven of their meetings with Malta with an aggregate score of 20-2. Malta haven’t scored in the last three head-to-head with the Azzurri and don’t have a single victory in ten straight competitive fixtures (0-1-9). Their last win came during World Cup qualifying in June 2013 when they downed Armenia, 1-0.

Betting on the moneyline has no value, that goes without saying; but taking the handicap (Italy -3) is too risky for an Italian team that hasn’t found the net with any consistently. Malta (+3) is the better value.

Pick: Malta (+3).

(Photo credit: Football.ua [CC BY-SA 3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0), CC BY-SA 3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0) or GFDL (http://www.gnu.org/copyleft/fdl.html)], via Wikimedia Commons. Photo has been cropped.)