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Scherzer, Nationals Open as +128 Underdogs vs Cole, Astros in World Series Game 5 – Picks & Odds

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in MLB Baseball

Updated Mar 23, 2020 · 1:34 PM PDT

Max Scherzer delivering pitch
After consecutive losses to the Houston Astros, the Washington Nationals will turn to three-time Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer to stop the bleeding in Game 5 of the World Series. Photo by Arturo Pardavilla (flickr)
  • Three-time Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer starts Game 5 of the World Series for the Washington Nationals
  • 20-game winner Gerrit Cole, who lost for the first time since May 22 in Game 1 of this series, will counter for the Astros
  • Check our preview below, with odds, analysis and prediction for the pivotal World Series Game 5 tilt

In front of a home crowd including US President Donald Trump, can Max Scherzer get the better of Gerrit Cole and the Houston Astros a second time and make the Washington Nationals great again?

Scherzer pitched the Nats to a 5-4 victory in Game 1 of the World Series, handing Astros 20-game winner Cole his first loss since May 22. Washington grabbed a 2-0 edge in the best-of-seven series at Houston.

However, since they got back to the nation’s capital, the Nationals have turned entirely provincial. They’ve dropped two in a row by a combined margin of 12-2.

Scherzer takes the ball for Game 5 of the World Series (Sunday, 8 pm EST). Oddsmakers, though, are of the impression that Cole will rediscover his form for the suddenly-surging Astros.

They are listing the Astros as -148 road favorites in the Nationals vs Astros Game 5 odds.

Astros vs Nationals Game 5 World Series Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Houston Astros -148 -1.5 (+115) Over 7.0 (-105)
Washington Nationals +128 +1.5 (-135) Under 7.0 (-115)

*Odds taken 10/26/19

The Nationals are 8-0 in the postseason when Scherzer or Stephen Strasburg is their starting pitcher. They’re 2-4 when anyone else starts.

Home-Field Disadvantage

For the first time since the 1996 World Series between the New York Yankees and Atlanta Braves, the home team is 0-4 through the first four games. Going back to last season, home teams are on a six-game losing streak in World Series play.

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Those 1996 Yankees, who beat Atlanta in six games, were the last team to win Games 3, 4, and 5 on the road in a World Series. They were also the last team to win the World Series after losing the first two games at home. The 1996 Yankees, the 1986 New York Mets and the 1985 Kansas City Royals all won the World Series after losing the first two games at home.

The 1996 series and the 1906 all-Chicago World Series between the Cubs and White Sox marked the only occasions when the road team won the first five games.

World Series Tied 2-2 (Since 2000)

Season Opponents Game 5 Winner Series Winner
2017 Houston Astros-Los Angeles Dodgers Houston* Astros in 7
2014 Kansas City Royals-San Francisco Giants San Francisco* Giants in 7
2013 Boston Red Sox-St. Louis Cardinals Boston** Red Sox in 6
2011 Texas Rangers-St. Louis Cardinals Texas* Cardinals in 7
2003 New York Yankees-Florida Marlins Florida* Marlins in 6
2002 Anaheim Angels-San Francisco Giants San Francisco* Giants in 7
2001 New York Yankees-Arizona Diamondbacks New York* Diamondbacks in 7

*Won Game 5 at home. **Won Game 5 on road.

The Astros were also deadlocked at 2-2 with the Los Angeles Dodgers after four games of the 2017 World Series. Houston won Game 5 by a 13-12 count and won the series.

This is the 46th time that the Fall Classic was all even through four games. Historically, the Game 5 winner has won the series 30 times (66.7%).

Astros-Nationals Trends of Note

The Nationals are batting a dismal 1-for-19 with runners in scoring position since the series moved to Washington. In Games 3-4, they were held to one run or less in consecutive games for just the second time this season.

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Houston’s Michael Brantley (8-for-17) and Jose Altuve (8-for-20) are carrying hot bats. The Astros will sit catcher Robinson Chirinos (4-for-11) in Game 5 in favor of Martin Maldonado, even though Chirinos has homered in consecutive games. Cole lost consecutive starts twice this season, both times in April.

Washington catcher Kurt Suzuki is out with a right hip flexor injury.

Pick: Houston Astros (-148).

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